darrell,

We went 2-3 last week dropping us to 19-10 on the season. While 66% is great, it's been a little frustrating the past two weeks. I've put in extra time capping this week's games and feel very good about them. Good luck to you!

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Game: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (Sunday 10/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +3

Is Atlanta really a home dog here? Classic public overreaction has led to a line that is off. Last week, Atlanta got spanked by the Giants and Pittsburgh laid a whopping on the Chiefs. It was downright ugly as KC played about as bad as a team has played all season. 45-7 was the final score and now all of a sudden, everyone thinks Pittsburgh is back. I mean they are the Super Bowl Champs, right? Well, it was a good game for them and they needed it. But, that's partly why they did so well. They had lost three straight and they were laser focused in that game. But I'm not completely sold on Pitt yet. Let's not forget that with Roethlisberger at the helm, this team has scored less than two touchdowns twice (agianst Jacksonville and San Diego). Those were two very good defenses and they face another today. The Falcons defense ran into a great offense last week and they just weren't ready for it. They were a bit overconfident after having allowed just 10.5 points per game going into that game. Pittsburgh's offense is not as good as New York's. Atlanta has been working hard all week here after last week's performance and you can bet their defense will be fired up. They know they have to atone for that poor showing against New york and they are going to come in with a bit of a chip on their shoulder knowing they are expected to lose this game at home. Their running game is ridiculously good (232 yards per game) and Pittsburgh's defense is susceptible to the run. While the Steelers have shut down some teams that have struggled rushing the ball this season, they allowed over 100 yards per game to both Jacksonville and San Diego. They lost both of those games. We were on the Giants last week because it was a bad matchup for Atlanta. If the Falcons get down against a great offense, they have to rely on Michael Vick to bring them back and that doesn't happen too often. But, against a lower-scoring opponent like Pittsburgh, the Falcons can grind the ball out on the ground and stay with them. I love the fact that we have a team here off a huge easy victory now posted as a road favorite against a home team off an embarrasing upset loss. The Falcons will try harder and keep this close. Atlanta is, in fact, a perfect 8-0 ATS the past three seasons off a double-digit loss. Back them with the field goal to spare.

The Jets are favored here because they are at home. But, is that really a good reason? They are just 1-2 at home this season and they haven't won back-to-back home games since 2004. While they are playing better than most people thought, they are susceptible to late comebacks from their opponents. Last week they let Miami come back from a 20-3 deficit. They hung on to win but barely. Earlier this season, they also allowed a 16-0 lead over the Titans and an 11 point lead over Buffalo to dissapear. You don't want to be laying more than a field goal on a team like that (due to back door covers). I've liked the Jets a few times already this year and will like them again down the road, but that will be in the underdog role. They won't be favored much this year and they just aren't good enough to be laying over a field goal. Their defense is allowing 24.8 points and 370 yards per game (30th in NFL). Detroit has a decent offense that is ranked 15th. Kitna is solid and they finally got their running game going last week. And, they got the sweet taste of victory and the confidence that comes from it. The Lions are not as bad as their 1-5 mark. They've played some pretty stiff competition (Seattle, Chicago, St. Louis and Minnesota). Detroit is the better redzone team which could be the difference in a close game. Take the Lions plus the points in what should be a close game.

The Panthers started slow losing their first two games in 2006. They faced solid competition in Atlanta and Minnesota in those two games and they were without Steve Smith. Since then, with Smith back in the lineup, they have reeled off four straight wins. Bettors got burned nonetheless by backing Carolina as they have failed to cover the spread in all but one of those games. Carolina has played in close games all season long. But here they are getting points. They face a Bengals team that has been a relative dissapointment. Their defense is porous, especially on the ground (allowing 140 yards per game rushing). They've lost twice now and two of their three victories have come against weak competition (Kansas City and Cleveland). Their offense, so high-powered last year, has been anything but in 2006. They are managing just 97 rushing yards per game and overall they are ranked 17th in the league in offense. Why? Maybe defenses have figured them out a bit or maybe it's the loss of left tackle Levi Jones and Center Rich Braham. In any case, Carolina is playing better than the Bengals right now and Steve Smith is coming back into his own. Against this defense, the Panthers offense should be able to run and throw the ball at will. Carolina is 12-3 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog and with John Fox as head coach, the Panthers are 19-9 ATS in expected close games (lined at +3 to -3). Fox is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. Panthers in this one.

Seattle escaped with a victory last week against St. Louis. It was the second straight game without Shaun Alexander and their second-straight ATS loss. They again will be without his services this week. Without Alexander, Minnesota should have success stopping Seattle's running game. The Vikings are playing surprisingly well and have held opponents to jsut 74.4 yards per game rushing, good for fourth in the NFL. Seattle is 5-1 but I am not completely sold on this team right now. The loss of guard Steve Hutchison has had a huge impact. This offensive line has allowed 17 sacks and the ground game is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. On top of the sacks, QB Matt Hasselbeck has suffered from a depleted receiving corps. Bobby Engram will be out for a second straight game and TE Jerramy Stevens hasn't played this year. Minnesota is well rested after their bye week. They have only lost two games and those were for a combined eight points. I expect a minor hangover here for Seattle as that was a tough gut-wrenching game against division rival St. Louis last week. The Seahawks, as good as they've been, are just 3-11 ATS the past three years off a division game. I see this spread as being about 3 points too high. Minnesota should be able to keep it close if not win outright.

Arizona is coming off a loss that is as tough as it gets. They were up by 20 points in the second half vs. Chicago. They forced 6 turnovers and their defense did not allow a touchdown all game. Yet they still lost. How will they perform this week? I'm betting that the emotional pain from that tough loss, just six days removed, lingers into this week. This team has to be throwing their hands up in the air and saying "we just can't win!" A feeling of helplessness is not a good thing. While Matt Leinart has looked very very good, the Arizona running game is non-existent. Edge James set an NFL record on Monday Night for lowest yards per carry getting 55 yards on 36 carries. On the year, he's averaging 2.7 YPC. Should a team that is ranked second-to-last in the NFL in rushing, a team that is 1-5 on the season, be a road favorite? I don't think so. Not even against Oakland. But most of the public disagrees. Depending on the sportsbook, 75%-85% of the bets are coming in on Arizona. Perfect. When a team is as down as Oakland, it's time to back them. This is why the public loses season after season. The Raiders showed a little promise last week, covering against he heavily favored Broncos. Andrew Walter has improved in every game since getting the call four weeks ago. And what I love here is the rushing matchup. Arizona is a bad defensive team. They are ranked 27th in yards per play allowed and 25th in points allowed per game. Oakland has faced two similar defenses within the past three weeks (Cleveland and San Francisco both ranked in bottom third of the league). Against Cleveland, the Raiders rushed for 194 yards. Against San Francisco, they gained 154 on the ground. I think Oakland notches their first win of the season this Sunday. They are improving and are in a great spot with nothing to lose at this point. Arizona is in a bad mental state. Oakland should be able to move the ball on the ground and Arizona has shown they cannot. Take the home dog here with the three points as insurance.