Nfl Game Picks - October 21, 2007
We capped off a 4-2 NFL week last Monday with a win on Monday Night with the Giants. Combined with College Football it was a 10-5 week. Overall we're 30-21 (59%) on the season for NFL for +9.1 units. This Sunday we like four picks...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Minnesota at Dallas (Sunday 10/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Dallas -9.5
We're don't often lay big chalk like this but we love this situation. The Dallas Cowboys were brought back down to earth last week vs. the New England Patriots, as the Pats continued their destruction of anything in their path. Wow is all we can say. Dallas reacted well to the loss. They had their shot against New England as they took the Pat's best punches for a while and even had a 4-point lead. But in the end, Brady was just too perfect. We were on Minnesota last week and they performed as we expected, riding a big game turned in by Adian Peterson to get past the Bears. We liked the Vikes because of Peterson last week but this week he'll be on of the reasons we fade them. The Vikings are completely reliant on Peterson, and against some of the weaker defenses, he has produced big plays. Minnesota has faced Atlanta's #24 ranked defense,Detroit's #29, and the Bears #27. They were able to find the endzone in those games. But, when they faced a Green Bay defense ranked #13, they didn't find the endzone until they were down 23-9 with 1:55 left. Against the Chiefs #10 ranked defense they managed to find it on their first drive, but were shutout the rest of the game. The fact is, Minnesota has topped 20 points on the road in just 3 of their last 11 games. Tavaris Jackson is completing just 49% of his passes, with two TDs compared to five INTs. Dallas is going to key on Peterson with their #6 ranked rushing defense, and force Jackson into the air. The Cowboy secondary has already picked off 10 passes (most in the league). Minnesota is the worst team in the league at stopping the pass, and Romo is going to pick that defense apart. Dallas has a bad taste in its mouth after last week. They lost no confidence and will be out to prove that they are still a great team. With a bye upcoming next week, they will leave it all on the field in this one. We have a system involving upcoming byes that is live for this game that is 25-3 ATS. Dallas was also 6-1 ATS after a loss last season. We must also point out that the Viking secondary made Greise look like a Pro Bowl QB last week, and with an offensive line that has allowed just over one sack per game, there won't be enough pressure to stop Romo. Cowboys roll at home.
Game: Baltimore at Buffalo (Sunday 10/21 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 34.5 -110
This game could become a real yawner. Last week Baltimore converted six turnovers into 22 points (five FGs and a TD). They could not sustain a drive against a bad St. Louis defense at home. They managed just 248 yards, even with six extra possessions. The offensive line is in shambles, and they simply don't have a QB that can move the offense. That puts the load on McGahee, and guess what? The Bills, his former team, are going to be stoked to stop him cold! The Ravens have now scored just two touchdowns in their last three games. Buffalo is another team that struggles to move the ball and score points. Even in their big Monday Night performance two weeks ago, they managed just 3 points from their offense against Dallas. The defense and special teams did the rest. The Bills have now prodcued as many TDs through five games from defense and special teams, as they have from their offense (four). Baltimore owns a good defense - one of the best in the league (#4 in yards allowed) while Buffalo has the 31st ranked offense. Will Buffalo score here? These teams are both coming off games where they forced 3+ turnovers, and had a +3 turnover margin. Those teams have played UNDER in 54 of 78 games, or 69% of the time. We have two teams fitting this system that both qualifying in the same game! Buffalo has played under in 23 of 32 vs. teams that allow 3.5 yards per carry or less (72% of the time). These teams met last year and put up a total of 26 points, and we expect a similar game in this one.
Game: Atlanta at New Orleans (Sunday 10/21 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Atlanta +9
What? Back the Falcons? Yes, we tore them up in our writeup for last Monday's game. Everyone that watched them at home on Monday Night is salivating at an opportunity to play against this team. Outside of a long TD run in the first quarter the Atlanta offense did nothing in the game, and the Giants went on to an easy road win. But often when a team is at it's low (like Atlanta), and you can't seem to find a single reason to back them, we get the most value and a great bet. In regards to Monday Night, let's remember that the Giants are healthy and a vastly improved team. Their losses this year have come to the Cowboys and Packers - the only one-loss teams in the NFC. The Giants were very banged up for both those games, and since have handled everyone. As bad as you may think this Atlanta team is, they played within 7 points of Tennessee on the road and within 6 of Jacksonville, also on the road. Are the Saints better than these teams? We certainly don't think so. The Saints bandwagon, with their convincing upset win over Seattle last week, is again getting full. The fact is this team is playing much differently this season vs. last. A team that has been beaten on the road by 31 and 17 points, and then at home by 17, doesn't deserve to be favored by 9 against anyone! Drew Brees is having a bad season. He has thrown nine INTs already after throwing 11 all of last year. His ratio has gone from one INT every 51 throws to one in every 23. One huge difference is the Saints inability to run the ball. It has caused them to put the ball in the air 43 times per game vs. 34 last year. WithDeuce McCallister out, Reggie Bush is carrying the ball, but at 3.5 yards per carry. So, the Saints pass more and Brees has lost his comfort in the pocket. Atlanta has some issues on their offensive line, but now that unit has a game under their belt and unlike the Giants, the Saints aren't getting pressure on the QB (they have recorded just six sacks on the season). The Saints have scored 79 points all season (15.8 per game). That isn't the type of offense that should be a 9 point favorite. It is, in fact, the first time in NFL history, as far as we can assertain, that has been favored by as many as 9 points while scoring under 17 ppg. The media is rife with negatives regarding the Falcons, but this team has been competitive. Byron leftwich will get the nod to run the Falcon offense, and we consider him an upgrade from Harrington. We will ride the generous overlay on the Falcons here.
Game: Pittsburgh at Denver (Sunday 10/21 8:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Denver +3.5
It's been a rough year for the Broncos. They have fallen hard and quick. But, those are the kind of teams on which you can usually find value in the NFL. Those of you who have been with us for a while know we usually have a few "gut wrenching" plays per year in the NFL - games in which your gut tells you it's a terrible pick. This is one of those. The good news is, these picks usually come through. You have to turn the clock back to 1992 to find the last time the Broncos were a home dog of more than a field goal. That game matched them with the eventual Superbowl winning Dallas Cowboys. The Boys came in with a superb 10-2 record, the #1 rushing defense, and 6th rated pass defense, while the Broncos were near the bottom of the heap in stopping the run, and producing yards from the run. The result was a Denver ATS win. The Broncos have been home dogs just nine times since 1985, posting a 6-1-2 ATS mark. A lot has gone wrong for this team, culminated by a 41-3 smackdown by the Chargers at home, their worst home loss in over 40 years. That embarassing loss, an extra week to stew and prepare and a virtual must-win situation, at night in primetime, spells major motivation for the Broncos. Champ Bailey decreed that the Broncos will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week. The bigger question is, will it be good enough to stay within a field goal of the powerful Steelers? The answer is yes! The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Broncos as it gives them a chance to plug some holes, and at the same time, make an attitude adjustment as Bailey described. The bye was timely for the Steelers in terms of getting healthy, but certainly came at the wrong time, in terms of a momentum buster. Statistically if you try to measure this game, the Steelers would be the only way to go, but statistics aren't what covers NFL pointspreads, as you see week in and week out. If that were the case, then this would be easy, and all the statistical mismatches would fall into the win column for the statistically advantaged. That just doesn't happen! The Broncos are 13-3 off a bye and a perfect 9-0 ATS if they are coming off a loss and 9-2 ATS at home. It is testament to what coach Mike Shanahan can do when given ample time to prepare for a team. The Broncos are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 at home vs. a defense that allows 14 or less points per game. Broncos bark as a home dog.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-October-15-2007
The NY Giants bring a three-game winning streak into Atlanta to face the injury-riddled Falcons. Atlanta has issues. Alge Crumpler spoke out after last week's loss, voicing strong critical op...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-11-2007
With Matt Schaub at QB, Houston has gotten a lot of people thinking they have turned the corner. To some extent they have. This is a much better team than before. But how much better? In the preseason...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-08-2007
Is Dallas 10 points better than Buffalo? Absolutely. Dallas is a great team this year. Does that mean they will win by more than 10 points on the road tonight? We don't think so. The last time Buf...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-05-2007
The Washington Redskins have had to deal with numerous injuries over the past few seasons and it has somewhat masked the potential of this team. This is actually a !GOOD1! team. The Lions are out of t...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-01-2007
The Patroits in early 2007 look like they are headed for another Superbowl. They have yet to even be involved in a close game and they have been great on both sides of the ball. The Bengals,...
