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Pro Football Predictions - October 19, 2008We posted our seventh winning week out of ten last week capped by the win on Cleveland Monday night. We hit our 5-unit Game of the Month and this week we have two more 5-unit plays (five in total).  Today's NFL Football Picks: Both of these teams have been beaten up through the first six weeks of the season. Pittsburgh may be the healthier of the two, and they are certainly in better shape record-wise at 4-1 vs. Cincy's 0-6. The Steelers likely just want to get out of here with a win, knowing they have a big challenge at home next week against the Superbowl Champ Giants. Following that big game are games against Washington, Indianapolis and San Diego. So the 0-6 Bengals, without Carson Palmer, can't excite the Steelers here and I don't see them expending too much energy as a result. That makes this a dangerous game, because this is a division matchup and the Bengals have played to the level of the competition this season. They have played a very difficult schedule, but they aren't getting blown out by the big teams they face. They more than held their own against three powerhouses on the road, dropping a 9-point decision in Dallas (covering a 17 point spread), taking the Giants to OT in New York, and losing by just a TD at Baltimore. All of those games resulted in smaller final margins than this spread. The Bengals are home and hungry for their first win and would like nothing more than to see it come vs. the Steelers. It may surprise some that 0-6 teams have shown good value, as they are 5-3 ATS since 2000. I look for the Bengals to catch the Steelers napping here, as they did vs. the Cowboys two weeks ago. The Steelers are rested off a bye, but that hasn't helped them in the past as they are just 5-10 ATS in their last fifteen post-bye games. They are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following a win. Bengals plus the points here. Game: Baltimore at Miami (Sunday 10/19 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Baltimore +3 (-120) (risk 5 to win 4.2) The Ravens burned many with their no-show effort last week vs the Colts. The secondary was toasted to a crisp by Peyton Manning and the Ravens offense never got untracked. Very few want to touch Baltimore this week as a result. The Dolphins are quickly getting the public's attention. Much of that has to do with the wildcat offense which is getting a ton of media attention. Who hasn't seen highlights of Ronnie Brown busting touchdown after touchdown from the direct snap? The fact is, the wildcat produced 48 yards in 12 plays, worse than the rest of their offensive sets during their impressive win over San Diego. And if there is any sure thing in the NFL, it's that defenses adjust and close gaps that appear from time-to-time. Their's no doubt that the Dolphins success has come from their ability to finally have a running game. Ricky Williams and Brown have combined for 471 yards in the last three weeks, and just a tick over five yards per carry. It sounds good until you realize it was against three run stop units ranked #17, #21 and #24 in the league. They were stopped cold by the Jets (#3 vs the run) and Arizona (#11 vs the run), gaining just 100 yards on 2.8 ypc. Needless to say, they lost those two games! Now they face the toughest run stop unit in the NFL in the Ravens - a team allowing just 66 ypg. This defense was embarrassed last week and will be playing with a chip on its shoulder. Chad Pennington is no Peyton Manning and the Fins have no receivers near those of the Colts. I like the Ravens here, and they probably get the outright win. Game: Tennessee at Kansas City (Sunday 10/19 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +9 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Tennessee is 5-0 and the Chiefs are off a 34 to nothing beatdown by Carolina. Guess who John Q. Square likes here? This game opened at 7 for the Titans, quickly moving off that key number to another one - 9. The public is in love with the Titans right now as they remain the only unbeaten team left in the NFL. The question is which Chiefs team do we get in this game? The one that was completely embarassed on the road vs. Carolina losing by five touchdowns? Or, the one that rocked Denver at home 33-19? I would side with neither extreme, but much closer to the version that beat Denver at home. There is no question who the better team is here, but that isn't always what governs outcomes in NFL games (see last week's games involving St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland). It's as much about motivation, and the Chiefs have excelled in this spot for as long as anyone can remember. The Chiefs hold one of the best homefield advantages in football and when posted as an underdog, they simply show up. Since 1985, the Chiefs are a remarkable 31-11 ATS as a home dog. The bigger the talent difference, the better the result. Since 1985 the oddsmakers have only dared to make them a home dog of a TD or more four times. The Chiefs are 3-1 SU in those games and 4-0 ATS! They have outscored the opponent by 28 points in those four games, and that includes this year's aforementioned game vs. Denver. I was on the Chiefs in that one and I'm back on them again here. Game: Indianapolis at Green Bay (Sunday 10/19 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Green Bay +1.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) A pair of 13-win teams from a year ago that have struggled in '08 clash in Green Bay in this one. The Colts are fortunate to be 3-2. While they certainly deserved last week's win, they had two earlier miracle wins at Minnesota and Houston. They are coming off a big game against the Ravens in which Manning looked like his old self. As a result, the public is swarming on them now. I don't think a team that has shown so many flaws changes that dramatically in one week. Many teams have a big week during the course of a season. But, that doesn't always mean they have turned the corner. Because these are the Colts, everyone is buying into them however after one good game. The Packers still own a 20-6 in their last 26 regular season games. Many wrote off the Packers when Brett Favre passed the torch to Aaron Rodgers. They pointed to the huge year Favre had last season, crediting him as the reason the Pack won so many games. Favre had a 95.7 QB rating with 29 TDs and 12 INTs. This may shock you, but Rodgers is having an even better year in 2008! He has a 98 QB rating with 11 TDs and 4 INTs. The Packers trouble has been running the ball and Ryan Grant is getting healthy. He has gained as many yards in the last two games as he has in his first four. I would be shocked if he didn't top the 100-yard mark against the Colts poor run defense. Peyton Manning has not been the better QB at this stage of the season when all games are taken into account. With Joseph Addai out, the Colts may have troubles on the road like they have this season. I like the Packers to win this one at Lambeau. Game: New York Jets at Oakland (Sunday 10/19 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Oakland +3.5 (-120) (risk 4 to win 3.3) Ever play the shell game? If you have, you understand that things aren't always as they seem on the surface. What we have here is a 3-2 team vs. a 1-4 team. But are the teams that different? Oakland is a much better team than their 1-4 record indicates. Let's look at the last four weeks. They beat the Chiefs by 15 on the road. They lead the Bills by 9 with six minutes to go, but imploded at the finish to lose by 1 point. They led the Chargers by 15 points in the 4th quarter, but ended up losing. Yes, Oakland seems to find ways to lose, but they are not that bad of a team at the core. In contrast, the Jets may not be as good as advertised. Arizona handed them a win and they got blown out on the road at San Diego. They also got a game-saver late against Miami who was driving with seconds to go for the winning score, only to see Pennington intercepted inside the red-zone. The Jets have no running game at all and sooner or later Brett Favre is going to give a game away (six INTs already). Oakland has been on the brink of a couple wins, and could easily be 3-2 instead of 1-4. The Jets could easily be 1-4 instead of 3-2. I think the Raiders, at home, catch the Jets. Results: 3-2 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-October-13-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-10-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-02-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-29-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-26-2008 |
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