Nfl Picks Of The Week - October 18, 2009
After last week's win we've now won four of five weeks in the regular season and six of eight dating back to the preseason. This week I have five picks including the Sunday Night game in Atlanta.
Favorites are killing it this season! Big underdogs have gone just 5-17 against the spread thus far. What?!? In the "Dog Pound" below, I talk a bit about this phenomenom, how that affects an underdog bettor like me, and what to expect moving forward.
| WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| NFL |
35-29 last 64 picks |
55% | +$560 |
| MLB |
262-208 last 470 picks |
56% | +$10760 |
| NBA |
299-237 last 536 picks |
56% | +$12460 |
| NHL |
2-0 last 2 picks |
100% | +$740 |
| WNBA |
121-90 last 211 picks |
57% | +$5490 |
| TOTAL | | | +$30010 |
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Kansas City at Washington (Sunday 10/18 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Redskins offense has really struggled this season as we know. They have managed just 14.6 points per game through five games. But, it isn't something that has started this season. In their final eight games last year, the Skins managed to top the 20-point mark just once. So this is certainly not just a short-term fluke. In their last 13 games they topped the 20 point mark just one time! That is despite the fact they have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, having faced four teams with a combined record of 2-17! I was on them last week in a spot that proved to be fruitful (getting points against a bad Carolina team). But they are laying points in this one. It is very appealing to look at the other side of this one with a team getting just about a full TD facing a team that can't score, even against the easiest schedule in the league. This will be the Skins sixth straight game facing a team without a win coming into the game. The only two wins among that 2-17 mark of four of their opponents came to Washington, so these teams otherwise are 0-17 against the rest of the league! Despite playing these winless teams, Washington has posted a 1-4 ATS mark. The Redskins are now just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games posted as a favorite. They are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. The Chiefs came so close last week, finally losing in OT to a team that was supposed to blow them out. The Chiefs have only faced one team with a losing record all season and that resulted in a game decided by a FG. When a new coach takes over a team as Todd Haley has done in Kansas City, it takes a few games to work out the kinks and get on board. The Chiefs showed last week that they are on the cusp of really improving. The Chiefs, as bad as they have been over the past three seasons, are 8-0 ATS over that span after back-to-back games allowing 25+ points. The Skins can't score, and laying this big of a number presents a lot of value on the other side.
Game: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (Sunday 10/18 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +14 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Browns finally put one in the win column last week without the benefit of scoring a TD as they won a defensive struggle on the road at Buffalo 6-3. They managed two pass completions for the game and so again, no one wants to touch this team. The Steelers won on the road in Detroit to move to 3-2 in a rather pedestrian 28-20 verdict over the hapless Lions. As I said last week when we took Detroit plus the points, Pittsburgh simply isn't playing like a championship team right now. The ATS loss last week dropped them to 1-4 ATS on the season. Like most past Superbowl winners, the Steelers are not playing at the same level as they did the year prior. Their 3-2 start includes blowing fourth quarter leads with consistency. The defense which tied an NFL record a year ago by holding 14 consecutive opponents to under 300 yards, allowed 335 to the lowly Lions. They are outscoring opponents by just 3 points per game on the season - not the makings of a two-TD favorite. This is definitely a breather alert game for the Steelers who own 11 straight wins over the Browns. Unbeaten Minnesota is on deck, so as much as this team has been out of focus and playing below expectations, it is unlikely we see a full effort here either with the Vikings on the radar. The Steelers have proven over and over that they do not bring it against bad teams as they are now 3-10 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 or more and also 3-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 or more, covering just once in their last six games. Yes, Pittsburgh is a superb team and should win this game, but asking them to cover two touchdowns in a let-down game is asking a bit too much.
Game: Carolina at Tampa Bay (Sunday 10/18 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay +3 (+100) (risk 3 to win 3)
The Panthers, after a 12-4 season one year ago, have regressed into a bad team. They have one win on the season - a squeaker last week at home against a listless Washington. Carolina is 0-4 ATS on the year and yet somehow are instilled as a favorite for the second straight week. Granted, they are facing the winless Bucs who are still looking for their first win on the season. But, laying a field goal on the road is just not right here. The Panthers have been outscored 102-57 on the season! If you go back to last season, they finished 1-2 with the win coming by just 2 points. That means that they have not won a game by more than three points in their last seven outings. One of the losses a year ago was a complete dismantling by this Tampa Bay team 27-3 in Tampa. The Panthers can't get their running game going and that has put the onus on Jake Delhomme - and that hasn't been good. Delhomme has just three TD passes and eight INTs on the season. And this has come off his five-turnover performance in the Panthers playoff game last season. Tampa Bay was surprisingly able to get to Donovan McNabb last week recording three sacks. If they can apply the same pressure on Delhomme, we have seen what that can do. The Bucs may be facing their biggest opportunity to get in the win column in this one, as their next seven games are against difficult opponents. This is a winnable game for Raheem Morris and his team and I expect a big effort as a result. This season thus far has been one of the "haves" beating up big on the "have-nots." But what we have here is two "have-nots" so I'm taking the home team getting points.
Game: Philadelphia at Oakland (Sunday 10/18 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Oakland +14.5 (-105) (risk 2 to win 1.9)
The Raiders are certainly a mess right now. They come in at 1-4, with their lone win coming versus 0-5 Kansas City. The Eagles returned from their bye with an easy win over the 0-5 Bucs. This one looks too easy on the surface. After all, the Raiders were just smoked by the Giants and the Eagles figure to be an NFC Title contender. But laying 14.5 points on the road in the NFL is about as hard as it gets. These teams are certainly far apart in talent, but they are also far apart in another important category luck. The Eagles are crushing teams, but are they really as good as their stats would indicate? In their three wins (all big ones), they were the beneficiary of a 12-3 turnover margin! In the one game in which the ball didn't bounce their way (a 1-4 turnover deficit vs. New Orleans), they lost by 26 points. I'm not saying Philadelphia is a bad team, but their value is inflated due to turnovers. On the flipside, Oakland has been on the losing end of the turnover battle. In their four losses, they have coughed up the ball 12 times while getting only 6 in return. In the one game where they took care of the ball, they won. So, we see a pattern. Turnovers are hard to predict but the safest prediction for any given game is about even. And, if that happens in this game, Philly won't be quite as daunting and Oakland won't be quite as bad. Can Philly let down here? Sure. They have three consecutive division opponents awaiting them after this one and may not put forth an all-out 60 minute effort. The Eagles have displayed this "no-show" tendency with a 3-8 ATS mark vs. teams with a losing record home record. The Raiders certainly have incentive here to show up after last week's debacle. They allowed over 30 points last week and have come back off such a poor performance by covering six of eight in their next game after surrendering the dreadful 30+. They also may find some fire from Antonio Pierce's post game comments that stated publicly, the Raiders were displaying a complete lack of effort. Sometimes that is all a team needs to get up off the mat and play their best game of the year - something I wouldn't expect from the Eagles this week. This is the first time Philly has had to travel since week one - and it's a long haul to the West coast. Since 1983, underdogs of 10.5+ points that are being out-gained by 100+ yards per game off back-to-back games in which they were out-gained by 100+ yards are a stellar 25-7 ATS. I'm going with the Raiders here to stay inside this huge number at home.
Game: Chicago at Atlanta (Sunday 10/18 8:20 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Chicago +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
After dropping their opener, the Bears have rattled off three straight wins. That first game was against Green Bay and lots of people saw Jay Cutler struggle and made up their minds about Chicago. But let's remember - the Bears had four turnovers in that game vs. zero for Green Bay and Chicago only lost by 6 points. Since then, they have beaten Pittsburgh, Seattle and Detroit, covering the spread in all three games. Despite that turnover debacle in game one, they have allowed just 19.5 points per game on the season, while averaging 30 themselves over their last three. Cutler has produced a QB rating of over 100 in each of the last three games, and you have to go all the way back to 1970 to find a QB that has achieved that in a Bears uniform. The three game tally includes a completion rate of over 70%, with seven TD passes and just one INT. I feel the Bears are flying under the radar a bit right now as they have the makings of a good team. The Falcons have been a tough team at home under QB Matt Ryan as he has led them to a 9-1 record as signal caller, but one of those wins was a scant two-point thriller vs. the Bears (without Cutler) last year. If you’re wondering where the Falcons home loss came from, it was against Denver when... you guessed it... Jay Cutler led a fourth quarter drive for a 24-20 Denver win. Atlanta's power running game from a year ago that averaged over 150 yards per game has not gotten on track in 2009. They are averaging just 106 yards per game this season and won't likely get healthy against the Bears ninth-ranked rush unit. The Falcons have had success at home, but still remain 4-12-1 ATS against teams with a winning road record. The public is high on the Falcons after their dismantling of San Francisco last week. But, the Falcons are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following a double-digit win. and they aren't as good as last week would indicate. Cutler got it done here last year and the Bears without him lost by just two points. With an extra week to prepare, I expect the Bears to show up here and keep this one close if not win.
Results: 3-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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