Expert Football Free Pick - October 15, 2007
We hit three of five yesterday. Off a win last Monday on Buffalo, we look to repeat our Monday Night success with a pick tonight to wrap up the week...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: New York Giants at Atlanta (Monday 10/15 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Giants -4.5
The NY Giants bring a three-game winning streak into Atlanta to face the injury-riddled Falcons. Atlanta has issues. Alge Crumpler spoke out after last week's loss, voicing strong critical opinions about Coach Petrino's way of handling the veterans on the team. He said Petrino was rookie oriented and, basically, a bad play-caller. Crumpler said he was not alone in those thoughts. This team has been full of controversy in 2007, starting with the off-field antics of Michael Vick, and now the fingers are being pointed in the locker room. It isn't the only problem the Falcons have. Their offensive line has been beset by major injuries. A line that started the year with one rookie, has suffered two major blows. Todd Weiner and Wayne Gandy are now out, leading to two more rookies getting the call. So there are now three rookies starting against a Giants defense that can rush the passer as well as anyone. The biggest problem for Atlanta will be the matchup between undrafted rookie Renardo Foster vs. Osi Umenyiora. Two weeks ago Osi recorded six sacks going against Winston Justice, a rookie making his first start. After his holdout, Michael Strahan continues to get his legs on the other side of the line. Beyond the problems on the offensive line, the Falcons are trying to adjust to new schemes with a new staff. Last week Petrino pulled starting QB Joey Harrington. Petrino didn't give Harrington a reason, which caused some discontent. Many think Harrington's play did not deserve the yank as he has just three INTs on the season. But, two of those picks have gone the other way for TDs. Combined with Leftwhich's interception for a defensive TD, the Falcons QBs have completed three TDs to the opponent compared to just four to their own teammates. The G-men looked awful at the beginning of the year, allowing 80 points in their first two games. But we can now look back and find an explanation. Those games were against what have turned out to be the two best teams in the NFC (both with 5-1 records): Dallas and Green Bay. After those two games, NY went to Washington and won, handing a good Redskins team their only loss until a close loss to Green Bay on Sunday. Following that, they beat Philly and the Jets. The Giants are much better and healthier, especially with Jacobs running the ball again. They have owned Atlanta, and seem to be comfortable on their field as they have won six straight times here. Atlanta has a terrible home dog, especially when the line moves across the pivital 3-point mark. Atlanta stands at 0-10 ATS the last 10 times they were instilled as a home dog of 3+ points! Overall they are 5-17 ATS as a home dog dating back to 1999. You have to go back to October 29th, 2000 to find a game the Dirty Birds have covered as a home dog of more than a field goal. New York is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. And, under Tom Coughlin, the they are 10-2 ATS during October. The Giants are putting a lot of pressure on the opposition, and with three rookies across the front for the Falcons, this could get ugly. Against a rejuvinated Giants team with confidence and momentum, this is a bad spot for a banged-up Atalnta team that is in disarray.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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NFL-Football-Picks-October-05-2007
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NFL-Football-Picks-October-01-2007
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NFL-Football-Picks-September-28-2007
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