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Last week we suffered our first losing week since the start of the NFL regular season. We went 2-3-1 dropping our record since week one to 17-7 (71%).

Check out my NFL Computer Predictions which predict every game on the board. NOTE: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

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Note: risk 1% of bankroll per unit. Never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any single pick.

Game: New York Giants at Atlanta (Sunday 10/15 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Giants +3

The Falcons are much improved this season, especially on defense. They have given up just 10.5 points per game thus far. But, their offense has not taken that next step. They are averaging just 17.3 points per game. It's been good enough to chalk up a 3-1 record but it may not be good enough vs. the Giants this weekend. New York can score. They are getting 25 points per game. That average would be higher had they not stalled numerous times last week versus Washington. They put up their lowest point total of the season last week at 19 but it could have easily been 30+ based on how they moved the ball. They racked up 155 yards on the ground and 411 total. The Giant defense is again suspect but let's take a look at who they've had to face. In week one, they got Peyton Manning and company. In week two, Donovan McNabb who has been red hot this year. Week three? Only the Super Bowl runner-up Seattle Seahawks. Finally last week they faced Washington who has been up and down but who had scored 67 points in their two games prior. The Giants held them to 3 points. I don't think their defense is as bad as many think. It's not a great defense but given who they've faced, they've held their own. Mike Vick doesn't look very good right now. He's hitting just 49.5% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per pass. Compare that to 67.1% and 7.4 YPP for Eli Manning. Yes, Atlanta can run the ball like no other team. But, New York's running game is no slouch. The Falcons haven't seen an offense like this all season. Atlanta's off a blowout win over Arizona and as such, they are a bit overvalued right now. They qualify for a negative situation involving favorites off a dominating home win that is 7-3 the past two years and 90%+ over the past decade. I look for the Giants to keep this closer than a field goal and maybe get the outright win.

The battle for Lone Star State supremacy goes off at Texas stadium on Sunday. It probably won't be much of a battle considering how bad the Houston Texas are. There's a little light at the end of the tunnel for the Texans as #1 draft choice Mario William finally got going last game, notching 1.5 sacks vs. Miami prior to their bye week. Drew Bledsoe is off a seven-sack game vs. the Eagles but don't count on the Texans getting too much pressure on the Dallas QB. Parcells and the coaching staff will adjust and Houston's overall defense is just really bad. They've given up an average of 28.3 points per game and in their single road game, they allowed 43 points to Indianapolis. Manning threw for 390 yards. Donovan McNabb lit them up for 311 yards in game one. Think Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are licking their chops? How about Julius Jones? Clinton Portis and the Redskins scorched Houston's defense for 234 yards rushing two weeks ago. Really, the only team the Texans have kept in check is Miami - a team that has averaged 12.2 points per game. The bottom line is Houston's defense is horrible and Dallas's offense is very good. They are ranked 3rd in the league in scoring (Houston is second to last in points allowed) and the Cowboys should absolutely go off here for at least four touchdowns plus some field goals. The 'Boys defense is ranked 20th in points allowed which allows for the possibility of Houston getting 14-21 on their own. I like this one to go OVER the total.

This Kansas City team has done a complete 180 under new head coach Herm Edwards. The past few years under Dick Vermeil, this team had an unstoppable offense and a very porous and weak defense. They were generally involved in games that ended 38-30 or somewhere thereabouts. Now, this season that has all changed. The Chiefs are 4th in the league in yards allowed and 6th in points given up. Their offense is below average, ranked 18th. Pittsburgh, even last year wasn't a great offensive team, but with Roethlisberger struggling, they are ranked 24th in yards and 27th in scoring thus far. Their defense remains very solid. Kansas City has scored well the past two games but that was against the 49ers and Cardinals. Versus Denver earlier this year they got 6 points and against Cincinnati they scored 10. They are likely to manage no more than 14 in this game and it should be even less. What we have here are two coaches that preach defense. Neither is asking their quarterback to go out and sling it and put up a lot of points. I expect a low scoring affair here and the total to fall in the low 30s.

On Monday night Denver confirmed what we already knew - their defense is pretty good. They've held their last three opponents to 7 or fewer points. Their offense however is another story. It has not scored more than 17 points and is averaging 12.3 per game after four games. Not good at all. Against Oakland's defense, they should have some more success for sure. But I don't see the Raiders scoring much. They put up 20 vs. San Francisco and 21 vs. Cleveland but against the two stout defenses they've faced (San Diego and Baltimore), they managed 6 total points. Versus Denver's defense that will be fired up again under the primetime lights, Oakland may not get a touchdown. And, I don't expect 30+ points from Denver as their offense is mediocre. Take the UNDER.