Pro Football Betting Pick - October 14, 2007
We notched a winning week last week capped off with the big Buffalo win on Monday night. A 10.5 point underdog coulda (and shoulda) won outright. Congrats to the Cowboys for somehow pulling that one out. In either case, we got the win against the spread.
On the season we are 26-16 (58%) for +8 units. This week we have five Sunday selections including a pick in the biggest game of the year: The Duel in Dallas!
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Houston at Jacksonville (Sunday 10/14 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Jacksonville -6.5
With Matt Schaub at QB, Houston has gotten a lot of people thinking they have turned the corner. To some extent they have. This is a much better team than before. But how much better? In the preseason, we predicted Jacksonville would win 10+ games this year. They started out with an ugly home loss. The Jags were beaten badly at the line of scrimmage vs. Tennessee in that game, but managed to hang in, allowing just 13 points. After three straight wins, they are right back to where they were last year. But unlike last year, they are now doing it on the road as well as at home. They went into Kansas City and kept a goose egg on the scoreboard for the Chiefs for 59 minutes and 59 seconds. The Chiefs could only muster 10 yards rushing. The Jags were in Denver the week before and held a Broncos team that runs on everyone to just 47 yards. The week before that, they held Atlanta to 82 yards and 7 points at home. Yeah, this defense is good. Now they come home, where they have allowed just 108 points in 10 games with 41 of those allowed to the two most potent offenses in football (Indianapolis and New England). In the other eight games they gave up just 67 points (6.7 per game)! Houston will come in after not being able to find the endzone last week vs. a Miami team that is ranked 24th defensively. Houston may again be without two of their most potent offensive weapons in Ahman Green and Andre Johnson. Let's face it, Ron Dayne's 2.9 ypc is not getting it done. Against Miami (worst in the league vs. the run), Dayne could manage just 30 yards on 16 carries. Jacksonville will be teeing off on Schaub and that could turn this one ugly in a hurry. Under Jack Del Rio, the Jags are 22-11 ATS following a road game. Our computer matchup for this game predicts a 9-point win for the Jags. We agree that it will be a TD or higher.
Game: Cincinnati at Kansas City (Sunday 10/14 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +3
Folks, this line is way off. This game should be close to a pick'em and we get 3 points on the home team. It's a gift we'll take. The Bengals are coming off a bye and it must have been a tough two weeks. This team is playing bad and is really in disarray. They have had two weeks to digest a pounding they took at home from New England and the realization of just how bad they might be. Deja Vu? Last year they were 3-0 and met New England before their bye and were crushed as well, 38-13. It sent a team that was 3-0 into a complete tailspin as they went out and lost coming off their bye to a Tampa Bay team that was 0-4. They went on to lose four of their next five games outright leading to a dissapointing season. This team has dropped their last five games after a bye if on the road. Overall they are 3-12 SU following an off week - the worst in the NFL. And they are just 6-11 SU in their last 17. The Bengals are a bruised up team, both physically and mentally. They have won just two of their last eight on the road, and now they are favored vs. a team that has the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. Kansas City simply wins the games at home they are suppose to win, and they relish in the role of an underdog in their building. This is a team that is now 39-10 ATS since '83 if they are a pick or a dog, and 34-15 SU! They don't just cover, they win! It goes beyond that. They are also 37-27 ATS as a favorite of -4 or less and 42-22 SU. Like we said, this team wins games at home it is supposed to win. Overall they are 76-37 ATS, as a favorite of -4 or less or an underdog and the same 76-37 SU. The Chiefs finally get a defense they can run on and score on. Since an opening day win against the Ravens, Cincinnati has lost three straight allowing 109 points in the process! The Bengals sit near the bottom of the league in defense and we expect Larry Johnson to control this game for the Chiefs. Brodie Croyle, if he has to go, is actually an upgrade to Huard. We are ready for a change at QB, but either way, they are going to stuff it right down the Bengals throats on the ground. The Chiefs have a very solid defense, and they are 5th against the pass. Palmer, without a running game, has been picked-off six times already. Both of these teams are off double-digit losses. Over the past decade, the Bengals are 7-19 ATS off a loss of 21+ points while KC is 32-15 ATS off a 10+ point loss. The Bengals team and coaches are not getting along as everyone is upset and passing blame. A team in that emotional state, with a defense this bad, is not a team that you want to be laying points with on the road. We'll take the home dog here.
Game: Minnesota at Chicago (Sunday 10/14 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Minnesota +5
The Bears pulled off the upset last week against the Packers. Are they back? Not really. While that was a nice and unexpected win, the fact remains that this Bears team is pretty bad. They are averaging 17.4 points per game and allowing 23. They lost to a bad San Diego team in week one, scoring 3 points. Detroit beat them by 10 points and Dallas destroyed them. From the offense, we never expected much. Rex had to go and Cedric Benson has been a complete bust. Overall they have the third worst offense in the league. But suprisingly the defense has been bad too (again injuries are a problem). They did not dominate the Packers last week. GB was actually up pretty comfortably but a Brett Favre mistake and a long TD pass for Chicago and the Bears won. That game set up this out-of-whack line this week. We know - what about Minnesota? They are an inept team. Yes they are, but they are getting 5 points here. If the Vikings can get Adrian Peterson the ball 25+ times, they have a great shot at winning this game. Peterson is #9 in the NFL in rushing and has gotten 100+ in three of four games. Their QB play is horrible but Chicago is not a high scoring team. The Vikings can afford to keep it on the ground and keep it low and close. Their defense is playing superb, giving up just 14.8 points per game and ranked 5th in the league. The Vikes are off a bye and have won four of their last five in that role both SU and ATS. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in their last six at home. While many think the Bears are better than their play has indicated thus far, we aren't sure. Take the points on a team that could easily win this game outright.
Game: Miami at Cleveland (Sunday 10/14 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Miami +4.5
A lot of people are wondering if the Dolphins will ever win a game this year. The only team in the history of the NFL with a perfect season has a chance to notch an inverse perfect one at 0-16. Cleveland has gotten off to a surprising start at 2-3, and could be 3-2 if not for a missed field goal in Oakland. The Browns have moved the ball well, but one fact remains: they can't stop anyone. They are dead last in the league in total yards allowed (424.4 per game) and ranked 30th in points given up (30.4 per game). Sooner or later, their offense breaks down, and a game that was supposed to be competitive turns into a blowout. The Dolphins certainly have not fared well on the road, as they are winless this year and just 2-9 in their last 11. But there is a silver lining for Miami and it comes at the end of the 4th quarter. Miami may not be winning these games on the road, but they have been more than competitive. They would have covered 7 of their last 10 to a line this high. And of the three they would not have covered were against a different caliber of opponent including New England and Indianapolis. Last time we checked, Cleveland is not anywhere near the level of those teams. The Dolphins are going to win some games this season, and this is a spot in which we expect them to be highly competitive. The change at QB for Miami can't make things worse. We expect it to give the team a jolt of needed energy. With a full week to prepare with the first team, against this defense, Cleo Lemon should do just fine. We would not be surprised if they leave Cleveland with their first win.
Game: New England at Dallas (Sunday 10/14 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Dallas +5.5
This is a matchup that many think may represent a Superbowl preview. They could be right. It doesn't get much better than this. It's just the sixth time that undefeated teams have met in the NFL after 5+ weeks. The Cowboys needed a miracle to get by Buffalo on Monday night, as Tony Romo threw five picks and turned the ball over a sixth time with a fumble. Somehow the Cowboys were able to overcome all that and win, which is what good teams do. Romo stuck with it and drove his team to the final two scores needed to win. New England is also off a lackluster performance against Buffalo as it was apparent both teams last week were looking ahead to this game. The Pats won by 17, but it just wasn't as crisp a game as we have seen from New England. That game could have actually been a lot closer. This game reminds us a lot of last year's game in Dallas vs. Indianapolis. The Cowboys entered that game as a 1 point dog, going on to defeat a perfect 9-0 Indianapolis team. While we'd agree with most that New England is a different and better team, so too is Dallas. These teams are both at the top of the league both offensively and defensively. Dallas had a plus turnover margin in their first four games, and then came up with a big negative vs. Buffalo. The NFL has produced a 66-30 ATS mark when backing teams that were -3 or worse on turnovers in a game after +1 or better in four prior games! The line on this game is inflated due to New England's amazing start to the season, and Dallas' near-miss on Monday night. While most people didn't see New England vs. Cleveland (and just saw a 17 point final margin), everyone saw Dallas nearly go down in flames as a 10 point dog. But, at home, Dallas should not be getting 5 points here (would NE be favored by 11 at home?!?). The Cowboys are much closer to New England than that. While it is often a death wish to fade Tom Brady and this machine called the Patriots, Dallas has some qualities that rival those of the Pats. Tony Romo is as cool as Brady and he has that "it" factor that just produces wins. He is one of the few QBs in the league in the same conversation as Brady and Peyton Manning. He is elusive, competitive, smart and talented. He can put the ball anywhere and, along with Manning and Brady, he can convert any third down - no matter the distance. From week 5 on, fading undefeated teams with a perfect ATS mark has resulted in 64% winners. The Dallas stumble on Monday Night was due to a letdown and look-ahead. It was not indicative of the skills of this team. And, it was favorable for us here as a line that would likely be 2.5 or 3 balooned to 5, crossing the key mark of 3. Take the Cowboys at home getting generous points.
Results: 3-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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