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Football Betting Pick - October 12, 2008We went 3-1 last week (wtih a push thrown in). This week we have five Sunday picks including our October 5-unit Game of the Month!  Today's NFL Football Picks: Brett Favre, after a slow start learning the Jets system, has really taken off. The Jets have scored 85 points in their last two games with Favre throwing for 560 yards and nine touchdowns! He's completing over 70% of his passes on the season. That momentum should continue as I expect him to post another big game against the soft Bengal defense. Favre usually struggles when he gets pressured into mistakes, but the Bengals have recorded just three sacks on the season. The Bengals offense is very underrated right now. They have gone up against the defenses of Baltimore, Tennessee, Dallas and the Giants. In the one game they faced a poor defense (Cleveland), Carson Palmer sat out the game with an injury. Palmer is getting healthier, and should find some space against a Jets defense that is ranked 20th in the league. New York's defense is within 1 yard of the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed. I like this game to go OVER the total. Game: Baltimore at Indianapolis (Sunday 10/12 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Last year, Indianapolis was an 8.5 pokitn favorite in Baltimore. They went on to blow out the Ravens 44-20. This year, they again get the Ravens at home, and are just 4.5 point favorites. These teams have taken on different roles this season, and in a big way. The Colts up until this year had the type of offense that could score points in a hurry, and consistently throughout the game. In 2008, they have not put a consistent offensive game together yet. They have had halves in each of their four games where they have produced 10, 7, 0 and 6 points and that simply won't be good enough vs. the best defense they will have seen this year. The Ravens have yielded just five touchdowns all season. They will be up for the challenge, facing a team that totally destroyed them last year. How would you rate this Ravens offense compared to the Colts? Not in the same league? Peronnel wise, that's true. But on the field it isn't. The Ravens offense is averaging just 23 ypg less than the Colts! Now how about the Ravens defense vs the Colts? Baltimore is allowing 192 ypg to the Colts 353 ypg! We saw it when the Colts won the Super Bowl - without Bob Sanders, the Colts defense is one of the worst in the league. This single player makes more difference in a team than any other on any team. I like Baltimore coming off two straight losses which dropped them to .500. I don't hold those losses against them as they had both Pittsburgh and Tennessee beaten (in tough games, on the road), but just couldn't seal the deal. How much these teams have changed, and the value is on the Ravens - the better team - plus the points here. Game: Dallas at Arizona (Sunday 10/12 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 5 units on Arizona +5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6) The Cowboys, winners of 13 games a year ago, are on their way to another big season. But big seasons aren't without a speed bump here and there. I really expect them to encounter one this week. The Cowboys seem to be the darlings of the odds-makers, as witnessed by last week's 17 point opening line at home vs Cincinnati. We cashed in on Cincy last week fading the Boys and this week we like the Cowboys fade even more! It's actually not just the odds-makers getting drunk on Dallas, it's the public's love for high scoring teams with a high profile QB. To add to it, it doesn't hurt that there is a star on the helmet - America's team right? Arizona is ready to say something about that. Kurt Warner has gotten all negative exposure this season. When he squared off with Brett Favre, who is a story a minute, he was seen fumbling four times and getting picked off three others. Quietly, Warner has not fumbled in any other game, and has just one interception in his other four games! The Cards, behind Warner, are averaging 29 points per game! While clearly the class of the NFL right now, the Cowboys have not been the team they looked like out of the gate a year ago. Versus teams that have gone on to be just 5-14 on the season, they have looked average. They lost to the only team with a winning record at home, struggled last week vs Cincinnati at home, and needed a second half comeback to defeat the Eagles. The public is giving them a pass on all of these transgressiosn thus far. But, this will be a tough test on the road. Arizona is a GREAT home team and I like them to at least cover, giving them a very good chance to win this game outright. Game: Green Bay at Seattle (Sunday 10/12 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Seattle +1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Seahawks are coming off a truly gut-wrenching embarrassing loss. The Giants poured it on, winning 44-6. That dropped Seattle to 1-3 on the season. You can bet they are circling the wagons this week. There's nothing like that kind of embarrassment to motivate a set of professionals to perform better the following week. Is Seattle that bad? They beat St. Louis 37-13. Sure, that's the lowly Rams. But, you expect a good team to blow out the bad ones. Their losses have come against what can now be seen to be pretty good teams. The Giants are one of the top teams in the league. They also lost to San Francisco and Buffalo - two teams that were bad last season but have shown they are quite good this year. In Green Bay we have a bit more of a concern. They looked sharp out of the gate beating Minnesota and Detroit. But they have since dropped three straight including a really bad loss to Atlanta at home last week. Both of these teams have issues, but this game is in Seattle which will spell the difference. The Packers haven't won here since 1996 and Seattle is a good home team. And, they have about as strong a motivation as is available in the NFL after last week's stinker. We'll back them here to get the win. Game: New England at San Diego (Sunday 10/12 8:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on San Diego -4.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) You can bet the Chargers have had this game circled since last January 20th, when they dropped their playoff game at New England 21-12. That was their second loss to the Pats last season (also lost 38-14 mid-season) and it killed an amazing Chargers season, and their Super Bowl hopes. Both of those games were played at New England while this one is at home for the Chargers. Phillip Rivers played that last game with a torn ACL. This season he will be the best QB in the game with Brady sidelined, and the a reversal is in order. Rivers is having an outstanding season with a 103 QB rating through week five. He has thrown for 11 TDs already. New England, which saw their double-digit pointspreads last year, dissolved with the loss of Brady this season, are just not the same team without him. Last year the Patriots had not scored less than 34 points in any of their first eight games. This season they have not reached 34 once. Matt Cassel has thrown for just three TD passes in four weeks, a mark Brady achieved in week one last year. The offense which was by far the #1 unit last season, has fallen to 23rd and the running game has been non-existent. As a result, teams have begun to stack eight in the box. Just three teams in the NFL are worse than the 3.65 yards the Pats generate with their ground attack. The Chargers will be a motivated home team for this one, and have the talent on both sides of the ball to make this one ugly. Results: 2-3 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-October-02-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-29-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-26-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-22-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-18-2008 |
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