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Nfl Spread Picks - October 11, 2009We went 3-1 last week to help recover some from a bad week three and we've won five of the last seven weeks in the NFL. We're also off an 8-4 week five in college football. Over the past six months, subscribers on all sports have tripled their bankroll. This Sunday I like five games.
 Today's NFL Football Picks: The New York Giants have done just about everything right. They come in here with a 4-0 record and are playing very well on both sides of the ball. The same certainly can't be said for the Oakland Raiders who have not found the end-zone in their last two weeks. There is no doubt that the Giants are a much better team. But laying more than two touchdowns in an NFL game? Really? It only takes one interception or fumble or punt return for Oakland to make this a difficult number for New York to cover. The Giants are in the perfect letdown spot. After opening with two tough division games and playing three straight on the road, they have what appears to be a show-up-and-win type of game vs. the Raiders. Despite their efforts to avoid letting down, this team is human. On top of it, the Giants have an ailing QB who didn't practice this week, nursing a bad heel. If Eli Manning plays, the Giants will likely operate conservatively and if they get a big enough lead could sit Manning, opening the door for a backdoor cover. Teams like the Raiders that are 1-3 are 64-42 ATS off a loss and the Raiders are also in another huge advantage spot. Since 1980 teams that are dogs of more than 14 points have turned a 60-41-3 ATS mark, good for nearly 60% winners. Although these games look ugly, the oddsmakers know it will be difficult to muster support for the ugly team vs. a superb team, and these games always end up with dramatic overlays. Such is the case here. No matter how good a team is, laying more than two touchdowns is not a profitable recipe, especially when your starting quarterback is questionable. The Giants also have a date with unbeaten New Orleans on deck so I look for them to come out a bit flat in this game. Need more reason to believe a letdown is in order? Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants are a terrible 5-17 ATS following back-to-back ATS covers as a favorite. Again, by definition the two wins were by big margins as they covered as a favorite. So, a Giants letdown here is not far fetched. Yes, this game could be a big-time blowout. But in the long term, the value is on the huge dog. As hard as it is to stomach, I'm backing Oakland in this one.Game: Pittsburgh at Detroit (Sunday 10/11 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Detroit +10.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) Looking at this game from a last year's prospective, you would have had the best team against the worst. That isn't quite the case here, as the Steelers have reverted some and Detroit is much better than last season. The Steelers are allowing 40 yards per game more on defense this season than they did a year ago. Pittsburgh has been good offensively in the early going, but so have the Lions, producing 50 more yards a game over 2008. So, this Lions team has improved by 90 net yards per game. The Steelers may have a difficult time getting motivated for the Lions as they are off of four tough games. This is also desperation week in the NFL and clearly teams that are 1-3 are facing the fact of a loss pretty much putting an end to hopes of a prosperous season. Since 1990 NFL teams with a 1-3 record have gone 77-59 ATS. If they are off a loss, as the Lions are, that mark jumps to 64-42 ATS (over 60% winners). Matthew Stafford may not play in this game but I think he likely will. If he doesn't, Culpepper is adequate to fill in. The Steelers have been a money burning 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite of 10.5 or more and have not covered in any of their last four on the road. In the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers have been a good team to back in most situations, but they are just 4-8 ATS and 5-7 straight-up as a road favorite. The Lions are 13-3 ATS when posted as a dog of 10.5 or more. Pittsburgh may well emerge as a championship team by year's end but they have not played like it thus far as they have allowed nearly as many points as they have scored. Laying double-digits on the road should be reserved for teams that are blowing out their competition. Detroit won the last time in this building so they will actually have a bit of confidence coming into this game. I like Detroit to make this closer than most expect.Game: Washington at Carolina (Sunday 10/11 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Washington +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) The Panthers bye came at an opportune time after starting the season 0-3. They could certainly use the extra week. But will it help? The fact is, Carolina is simply a bad team and now they are laying more than a field goal. The Redskins, at 2-2, look to improve a sputtering offense that is moving the ball well, but not generating points. What is lost in the Redskins-bashing is how well their defense is playing. This team is ranked 4th in the NFL in points allowed. Getting more than a field goal on a defense that good has to grab your attention. But what about their horrible offense? They have yet to score more than 17 points in a game, but it may not be as bad as it looks. Their offense has been generating exactly what it should vs. the defenses it has faced. What appears to be a below average offense has performed on par. Their yards per play is quite good (5.7) and it matches what their opponents have allowed on average. The issue of course has been scoring, and I expect them to find a way vs. Carolina. The Panthers may soon have to address the Jake Delhomme situation as he has had his confidence shattered and it shows. What appeared to be a few fluky games has all of a sudden turned into a pattern. He has fumbled the ball as if it were coated in grease and, going back to their playoff debacle last year, he has now tossed just 3 TD passes vs. 12 INTs! No team is going to overcome that. You can bet the Skins will run the ball often against a Panthers defense allowing a not-so-flattering 182.7 yards per game. Delhomme simply can't be trusted and Carolina has faults in every area. They can't get the running game going, can't stop the run, and have a QB that is mentally beaten right now. The Panthers are 7-17 ATS under John Fox as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and 8-17 ATS after back-to-back losses. One of these teams is allowing nearly 2x as many points per game as the other and the dog has the better defense and the better team. I'm going with Washington in this one.Game: Minnesota at St. Louis (Sunday 10/11 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on St. Louis +10.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6) Game: New England at Denver (Sunday 10/11 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Denver +3.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6) The Denver Broncos were expected to be a non-factor this season. The pundits had them winning anywhere from 2 to 5 games all season. Their terrible preseason play (lost first three games by combined score of 46-71) and the Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall debacles only fueled the fire. They are no doubt the biggest surprise in the early going of the 2009 NFL season as they enter here at 4-0. They remain unproven in the minds of many given the fact that they stole a win from Cininnati in game one and have played poor or mediocre competition. There are still few believers out there given the fact that they are a 4-0 team posted as a home underdog, and over 75% of the public is fading them. Even the big home win over the Cowboys last week has failed to legitimize this team in the public eye. But I believe it's time to give this team their due. The Broncos rank #2 in the NFL in yards allowed per game and #1 in points allowed. After four games, despite the questionable competition, the chances of this being a fluke are slim. It's time to change the perception of this team. The Patriots are off a big game vs. the Ravens at home and this team is not what it was two years ago with Brady under center. That team was putting up 35+ points every single game, while this one has yet to reach 28 even once. The Broncos bring in a rushing attack that has churned up 4.7 yards per carry and it has kept the pressure off Kyle Orton, who has a mistake-free 97.7 QB rating with five TD's and no picks. That trumps Tom Brady's performance this season who owns a pedestrian 83.7 rating having thrown four TD's with two picks. The Pats are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and that should give plenty of room to Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno to do some damage. These two have combined for 516 yards on 97 carries (5.3 ypc). The Broncos defense has gotten pressure on everyone, having already recorded 15 sacks. So Brady, who simply hasn't been sharp and has not yet returned to form, will be under pressure especially with a feeble ground attack grabbing just 3.6 ypc. On top of it, McDaniels knows Belichick well and certainly wants this game vs. his old mentor. The Patriots have the name and reputation here, but the Broncos bring the better team at this point in the season and we are getting points on them at home. Since 1983, home teams in a matchup of two very good teams (.750+) coming off an upset underdog win are 23-4 ATS. I'm grabbing Denver in this one. Results: 3-2 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-October-05-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-October-02-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-28-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-25-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-September-21-2009 |
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