4-1-1 last week in the NFL pushing our record since week 1 up to 15-4 (79%). Five picks again this Sunday.

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	UNITS
NFL	15-4 last 19 picks	79%	+11
CFB	18-8 last 26 picks	69%	+10
MLB	45-24 last 69 picks	65%	+6.5
NHL	208-140 last season	60%	+24.6
CBB	174-128 last season	58%	+46
NBA	207-197 last season	51%	+10
TOTAL			+108.1

Check out my NFL Computer Predictions which predict every game on the board. NOTE: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

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Game: Washington at New York Giants (Sunday 10/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 stars on OVER 45

This total started at 43.5 and has moved to 45. I think it's still too low. New York is a story of extremes. Statistically speaking, they own one of the top offenses and worst defenses in the entire league. They are #2 in yards per game and yards per play (right behind Philly). They are getting 395 yards per game. They are 5th in scoring offense averaging 27 per game. Their defense is awful allowing 30.7 per game (only San Francisco is worse). They are also bottom-five in the league in yards allowed per game (370). Yes, they've played some very good offensive opponents but Washington right now is right up there. Washington's offense has lit up while their defense is average. The Skins are now ranked 3rd in the league in yards per game and yards per play. And, that's including two very lackluster performances against Minnesota and Dallas. Those two games were without Clinton Portis. In those games they averaged under 100 yards rushing and Mark Brunnel completed 57% of his passes and averaged 158 yards per game. In the two games since Portis' return, Brunnel has completed 74% of his passes and averaged nearly 300 yards per game. And they rushed for 193 yards per game. Wow! That's a big change. And, one of those two latter games was against Jacksonville - a team with a great defense that recently shut out the Pittsburgh Steelers. So, with Portis in there, Washington looks like the Super Bowl contender they were supposed to be this year. They should have plenty of success against the Giant's defense. Especially when you consider that Washington still remembers their 36-0 crushing defeat last year here and will be out to prove they can score. And, with the offensive firepower that the Giants have, (30 points in each of last two games), they should also be able to score a lot. These teams last met December 24th of last year and 55 points were scored. I see this game soaring way over the total.

Yeah, Miami is that bad. This team lost to Buffalo and Houston and barely beat Tennessee! Houston and Tennssee? Come on! As I've said before, not a big fan of Daunte Culpepper. Don't get me wrong, I had him two years ago in my fantasy football team when he was amazing. But, that's when he had Randy Moss to throw to. Without Moss, Duante is average. Right now he looks worse than that. He has no offensive line to protect him and he's in big big trouble with Belichick laying in wait. Nick Saban may again resurrect this team later in the year, but the fact remains that they are now 5-14 ATS in early season play the past three seasons. They are also 2-11 ATS vs. division opponents over that same span. New England is a strange bird this year. Hard to figure out. But, with Brady and Belichick, they are always a threat. They're off a confidence-boosting upset of Cincinnati. This is what they needed. It won't cause overconfidence. Just the opposite. The Pats squeaked by the first two weeks against weak teams (Buffalo and the Jets) and got embarrased at home by Denver in week three. They needed a big win and they are far from over-confident. And they know how to put together solid performances. The Pats are 10-2 ATS the past three seasons following a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points. Under Belichick, they are 28-13 ATS vs. division opponents and 9-2 at home off an upset road win! They have a bye coming up so there's no looking past Miami. They want to go into the bye week with a bang and I think they do. Pats in a blowout against a very bad team.

When it looks like it can't get any worse for a team, back 'em. Tampa's in a good spot for a cover here. They have been outscored on average 9 - 22 so far. The first two weeks they scored just 3 points. Everyone's dissin' them. But wait. Who did they play in weeks 1 and 2? Baltimore and Atlanta - two of the best teams in the league right now. Two teams with great defenses. So those first two losses now don't look quite as bad as they did at the time. And, the Bucs showed a lot of improvement in game three. They covered against Carolina and gave them a fight, scoring 24 poitns and losing by just two. They are off a bye which can cure a lot of ills for a winless team. They are laser focused in desparate need of a win and catch New Orleans at a good time. The Saints are now officially a "good" team in the eyes of ESPN analysts and the public. They are coming off a grueling two game stretch that started with their big emotional win on Monday night. Then they faced Carolina in a tough and important division matchup. Now they get the lowly Bucs and I think their guard could be down a bit. They've been playing great and that's just really hard to keep up week after week in the NFL. They may take Tampa a bit lightly as the Bucs are without starting QB Chris Simms and looks to the rookie Bruce Gradkowski. But this may not be so terrible. A lot of Tampa's offensive woes were due to Griese. In this game, they will instead rely heavily on the running game and defense. Winless underdogs coming out of their bye hit at about a 67% rate in the NFL. Tampa is a desparate cornered animal and I think they find a way to keep this game close.

In my preseason predictions, I recommended taking the Jets to get over 6 wins. They are on pace to get eight. And, barring some bad coaching last week, they could be 3-1 and coming off a huge upset win vs. the Colts. In control of the game and with the lead in the second half, Eric Mangini inexplicably decided to go for a touchdown on 4th down and goal instead of kicking a field goal. The Colts went on to win the game by 3 points, scoring in the last minute. In any case, the Jets are 3-1 against the spread for a reason. They still don't get enough respect. With QB Chad Pennington playing great again, they are scoring 26 points per game on the road and allowing just 18. Pennington is completing 67% of his pass and has a 3-to-1 TD to Interception ratio. Jacksonville is playing classic Jags football - every game close and up for grabs. All four of their games could have gone either way and as a result, they are 2-2. New York's biggest weakness is their defense but Jacksonville's offense just isn't very good. I just think scrappy New York finds a way to keep this close as Jacksonville rarely blows anyone out. Jets plus the points.

Pittsburgh's off a national TV game in which they lost and gave up 28 points. So what? That was the Bengals. Prior to that they gave up 17 and 9 points. This defense is still great and you can be sure they are extremely mad at giving up 28 points. They are going to bring their "A" game into this one - be sure of it. And last week we saw that the young Phillip Rivers and the San Diego offense can be shut down by a good defense. What about San Diego's defense? Just the #1 rated defense in the league. Yes, after three games, the Chargers lead the league in yards allowed per game (184), yards per play (3.8) and points per game (7.7). Is it a fluke? I don't think so. Now, I don't expect the Chargers to ranked #1 come season end. But they do have a good defense. And with Pittsburgh's offense struggling right now, and playing in front of a pumped up crowd on Sunday night, I think they hold their own. Without the Bus to get tough yards, and with Ben Roethlisberger just not "right," the Steeler offense has put up just 16 points per game. Against the one solid defense they have faced this year, they were shutout. The Steelers are 9-1 UNDER the past two seasons on the road off a game that went OVER. They are also 26-8 UNDER on the road with Cowher as coach as he reverts back to what he wins with - defense. This game should be very low scoring and I like the UNDER.