Football Handicapper - October 05, 2009

We went 2-1 yesterday. Tonight I have a pick in the big revenge game between Brett Favre and the state of Wisconsin...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	31-27 last 58 picks	53%	+$230
CFB	18-10 last 28 picks	64%	+$1820
MLB	255-195 last 450 picks	57%	+$12390
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	121-89 last 210 picks	58%	+$5890
TOTAL			+$32790

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Green Bay at Minnesota (Monday 10/05 8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -220 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.4)

The Vikings will take on the Packers with Brett Favre wearing the purple and gold for the first time. This is a long-standing, heated divisional rivalry that doesn't need extra motivation but it is there. With Favre playing traitor and going to one of the two most hated teams by Packers' fans, he has thrown down the gauntlet. It should be fun to watch if nothing else. It appears that the Vikings have passed the Packers this season. Green Bay was supposed to be better than they have played. They are having all sorts of problems on their offensive line, having allowed 12 sacks already. They are struggling on third down, where they rank No. 21 in the NFL at 33%. That won't help them against a Vikings’ defense that ranks as the best third down defense in the league. The Packers stacked the box with eight against the run in St. Louis because they have had problems there as well. They still couldn't stop a poor Rams running game that ended up with 149 yards despite trailing the entire game. Adrian Peterson should find a lot of room vs. this Packer front seven. The telltale sign here may be the fact that the Packers had a +3 turnover margin in their win over the Rams, and were +4 against the Bears, and had to come from behind despite the lopsided turnover count. On the season, the Packers own a 9-to-1 turnover edge and with that, they should be winning games by larger than their 27-21 margin.  Games are usually won in the trenches, and Minnesota has a clear edge on both sides of the ball and are playing very well on top of it. Being a division game of great importance to both teams, I am nervous laying more than a field goal. So, I think the wise choice is Minnesota on the moneyline. This way if they win a close one 23-20 or 24-23, we still get the win. The Vikes are 10-1 straight-up as a favorite since the start of last season and I look for them to make it 11-1 tonight.

NFL Football Picks Resources:

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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-October-02-2009
The Cleveland Browns have looked extremely ugly over their first three games and enter week four looking for their first win. While the Browns are certainly far from a good team, they are not nea...

NFL-Football-Picks-September-28-2009
The Cowboys have displayed a potent running attack in the first two games, generating nearly 7 yards per carry. They are likely to be without their best running back, Marion Barber, for this one....

NFL-Football-Picks-September-25-2009
The Green Bay Packers have stumbled out of the gate. They were supposed to beat Chicago in week one and did. But it required a heroic last minute thouchdown pass. Then, they lost outright last week to...

NFL-Football-Picks-September-21-2009
While this isn't being discussed, I think here should be some concern in Indianapolis about the "mighty" Colts offense. Don't get me wrong. This is still an excellent offen...

NFL-Football-Picks-September-18-2009
There was a lot to take in after watching the Patriots last week. Through nearly the entire game, the Bills beat them on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady looked very rusty for most of the game, uncha...