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Free Nfl Spread Picks - October 05, 2008We posted a small win last week and look to build on that this Sunday with five NFL picks. We also have a take on the those wacky NFL wide receivers...
 Today's NFL Football Picks: The Lions caught their bye at a very good time. They started horribly and needed to regroup. They let go Matt Millen and all that baggage and look to start anew this week. The Lions are not a great team, but they aren't as bad as they have looked early on. They got down 21-0, 21-3 and 21-3 in their first three games and that changes everything. In games like that, the gameplan changes, the mindset changes and you don't get to execute to your plan. We haven't really seen the Lions yet in "normal" mode. The Bears have already played four tough games, and could be 4-0, but enter 2-2. It will be tough to match the intensity it took them to beat Philadelphia at home last week. For as much credit as the offense is getting, Kyle Orton has still thrown four picks to five TDs and Matt Forte is rushing for 3.8 ypc. Those are not impressive numbers. The defense has also allowed 20+ in each of the last three games. I really believe after four very tough games, with the toughest being last week, the Bears will be flat as a pancake and struggle here, especially on the road. The Lions had a chance to address some flaws. For the first time, they should get to execute a game plan, without having to abandon it after 15 minutes. I'll grab the home dog, well rested and prepared. Game: Tennessee at Baltimore (Sunday 10/05 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5) Tennessee has become a public darling aftter their impressive 4-0 start. In contrast, even with Baltimore's performance on the road vs the Steelers, they aren't getting a whole lot of respect here as the public is backing the road favorite Titans at a rate just over 70%. It is hard to believe Baltimore is the underdog here. I think most haven't been sold on this team yet, despite their good play this season. I was turned around on Monday night after seeing them continue their defensive domination vs. a good team. And, Joe Flacco didn't show signs of fluster on the road under the big lights. As we know, the Ravens were 0-8 SU and ATS on the road last year. They broke that string getting the cover on the road at Pittsburgh on Monday night. This week they face the Titans, a team much like the Steelers, except Kerry Collins is not Big Ben, and this one is at home. As bad as the Ravens were last year overall, they were solid at home, beating the Steelers, losing to New England by just 3, and dropping one to the Browns by 3 in OT. This should be a low scoring, field-position type game. The Ravens have Sam Koch who has a big leg, averaging 48 yards per punt so far, and their special teams, which could be the deciding factor, are a tad better. I am not yet sold on the Titans as their 4-0 start has as much to do with a 2-to-1 turnover advantage than great play. I think these teams are even, and the Ravens are under the radar, getting points at home. While both defenses are the talk of the town, the Ravens demonstrate here that it is Baltimore that has the better one. Game: Buffalo at Arizona (Sunday 10/05 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 44.5 -110 We were on the OVER last week in the Cardinals game vs. the Jets and they exceeded the total - twice! One look at Arizona last week shows something of interest. They turned the ball over seven times meaning they had seven possessions interupted, but still manged 35 points! That is hard to ignore, especially playing at home. Kurt Warner is a savvy veteran, and I would expect he gets redemption here, and moves the offense as he has with less mistakes. The Bills have turned very offensive behind a developing Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and WR Lee Evans. Arizona has a QB rating against their defense of 102.4, so look for the pass happy Bills to chew up yardage just like the Favre and the Jets did last week. The Cards, after putting up 350 yards or more in their previous game, have been an astounding 42-17 to the OVER in their next game. They are also 16-6 OVER as an underdog the past three seasons. This one should have plenty of scoring and again go OVER. Game: Cincinnati at Dallas (Sunday 10/05 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Cincinnati +17 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8) Well it's easy to see where the odds-makers heads are. They know that the betting public is going to give Dallas a "pass" after their first upset loss. Vegas has given the Cowboys the "Patriots" status of last year, laying up a huge number in this one. The Cowboys certainly are a superb team, but 17 is an awful big number and requires everything to go right. That includes having the mental mindset to bring their A game. They know they will likely be facing Ryan Fitzpatrick and won't be worried. In contrast, the Cowboys know they could have this one in the win column before a single snap. Dallas is coming off two extremely important and high-emotion games including an NFC "status" game against the Packers and a hard fought division game vs the Redskins. How can they get up for this one against the Bengals? Cincinnati has looked bad at times this season, but they have also showed some promise playing tough against the Giants on the road. Often when your biggest star goes down, the rest of the team circles the wagons and plays over their head, especially when the player going down is the QB. This game may look easy, but often these games don't go that way (ask the Broncos from last week). I'll back the Bengals and the long spread. Game: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (Sunday 10/05 8:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Pittsburgh +4 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8) What happens when you win the game with a banged up team, and don't cover the spread? The public turns against you and the value becomes yours. Lots of money was washed down the drain last week on the Steelers and now the Jags are getting it all with over three fourths of all bets riding on them in this game. David Garrard had a magnificent season last year, but up until the soft offense of Houston last week, has he resembled the QB of two years ago. In 2007, he threw just three interceptions. He has already eclipsed that mark this season in just four games. He now faces another tough and rugged defense. Last week Garrard thrived vs. a Houston defense that has totaled just three sacks. The Steelers have 15 and will present a whole different set of problems. Unlike the Texans, the Steelers can stop the run without eight in the box, so that will make things even more difficult for the Jags. The Steelers also come into this one quite motivated. They remember the Jags playoff win last year that knocked them out in the first round. Not only will Pittsburgh have the motivation, but they have the better team. So getting over a field goal represents solid value. While Jackonsville is 2-2, they are 5 points away from being 0-4. Let's not give them too much credit just yet. Results: 3-1 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-September-29-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-26-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-22-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-18-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-September-12-2008 |
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