Monday Night Football Picks - October 07, 2007
We ended up a dissapointing 3-4 last week. We're sitting at 58% on the year and this week we look to get back on the winning track with four Sunday plays.
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Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Detroit at Washington (Sunday 10/07 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington -3.5
The Washington Redskins have had to deal with numerous injuries over the past few seasons and it has somewhat masked the potential of this team. This is actually a good team. The Lions are out of the gate at 3-1, after a record-setting 34-point 4th quarter against the Bears. The Lions have had fate on their side (more so than solid play), so the 3-1 is a bit tainted to us. Even Lions WR Roy Williams said this week, "Luck is turning our way." Last week they could do absolutely nothing against Chicago, but the mistake prone Bears fumbled five times in the game. None of those were turnovers, but it did create unfavorable down and yardage scenerios from which their inept offense could not recover. The Lions also benefitted from three Greise interceptions. They were in true Lion form at Philly in week three giving up 500+ yards, and playing themselves out of the game in the first quarter. They needed OT at home vs. a Minnesota team with zero offense and 5 turnovers to squeak out a win. They also needed 16 points in the final four minutes to win at Oakland - a team that hasn't won enough games in three years put together to qualify for the playoffs if you used them for one season. We eluded to the Washington injury woes and the fact that they are coming out of a bye week is a plus for them. Joe Gibbs, when coaching a Redskins team off two straight wins before their bye, has won and covered 9 of their last 11 after the bye. The Lions have been the worst road team in the NFL over their last 50 games, posting a 7-43 SU mark. They've only won three of their last ten road games ATS. And when they are favored or a dog of 5 or less, they are a pathetic 4-14 ATS. The Lions have never won in 17 tries in Washington and they are 0-6 ATS the past two seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. We like the Skins to expose the Lions in this one.
Game: Arizona at St. Louis (Sunday 10/07 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on St. Louis +3.5
The Rams are a very banged up team and come into this contest with more question marks than answers. They are a hideous 0-4 SU and ATS. If St. Louis is a dissapointment, Arizona has been just the opposite. The Cardinals have been an underdog four straight weeks, covering every game. No win was as big as last week's upset over the Steelers. This week their role cahnges as they become the hunted, instead of the hunter. Historically home dogs have barked loudly in the NFL, and this year certainly has been no different. Home pups are now 14-7 ATS through four weeks. Arizona certainly has been a live dog over the years, but unfamiliar and unkind to backers as a road favorite. They are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in that role since 1995. They are currently using a formula that usually backfires in the NFL - two quarterbacks. Sooner or later that will bite them, and it may be this game. Stephen Jackson and Marc Bulger will both sit this one out, as Gus Frerotte will lead the offense. While most would consider Frerrotte a downgrade, sometimes a struggling team needs a change. This may be the infusion this offense needs (see Buffalo and Edwards last week). Frerotte has a lot of experience and the last two times he has gotten significant playing time he delivered 25 TDs and 15 INTs. With Bulger sitting on a 64.9 QB rating, it can't get much worse. Jackson was not having a good year, so turning the load over to Bryan Leonard may not be as bad as one would think. Leonard has rushed for 4 yards per carry as compared to Jackson's 3.4. The fact that the two offensive super stars are out for St. Louis gives us line value without a big dropoff in performance (from how they have played this year). St. Louis so far has played teams that were 6-1 combined at the time they played them, and 11-5 overall, so they haven't had an easy go yet. They were actually up on Carolina midway through the 3rd quarter, with more yardage for the game. They also led San Francisco 13-7 with just three minutes left. They completely dominated as they produced 20 first downs to the Niners 8, and doubled them up in yardage. So this is a much more competitive team than it would appear at first glance, especially at home. Arizona appears to be an up and coming team, but the hardest corner to turn is winning on the road. This team is 5-34 SU on the road in their last 39 games, and to put them as better than a FG better than anyone on the road at this point, has no value to us. We will ride the Rams with the points.
Game: Cleveland at New England (Sunday 10/07 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 48.5 -110
We all watched New England put up over 30 points for the 4th straight week, while keeping their opponent down. They've won every game by 20 points or more and rank second in offense in the league behind Dallas and first in defense. What choice do the odds-makers have than to put a hefty price on the Pats? We like the Pats in this game, but we would never play on a team giving over two TDs - too many things can happen. The Browns have played superb and come in at a surprising 2-2. They should be 3-1 if not for a missed FG at Oakland that would have won the game as time expired. The Browns have had the benefit of playing three games at home, and now turn to the road where they are not the same team. They have had only one scoring success on the road over the last 3+ years covering 25 games, and that was 45 against Cincinnati. Other than that single game, the Browns have averaged 15.6, 14.1 and 13.4 points per game over the last three seasons. This is a rare game in the NFL for based on the line and total. In the NFL, it is extremely rare to see games with a huge favorite and very high total. We often see a handful of double-digit pointspreads throughout the season. It gets into rarified air however to see a 14+ pointspread, and rarer yet to see a 14+ pointspread with a high total. That's what we have here and why there is rare value is in this game. How rare are these games? The past seven seasons has produced only seven games with a 14+ pointspread and a total from 46.5-49.5. Historically when you have seen a total posted in this range it has always been with two very good offenses, and not any above average defenses in the matchup. But in this matchup we have the #1 defense in the league (based on yards and #4 on points). The last six times we have had a pointspread of 14 or higher paired with a total of 46.5 or higher, the game has gone 6-0 UNDER! The last time we saw it topped was on November 11th, 2001. When you have a defense that is ranked #1 in the entire league playing in a game with a total of 48.5, it asks a whole lot from that team's offense. The fact is, if New England gets up in this game early by a huge margin, they will shorten the game and run the ball. They have Dallas awaiting next week, and they'd like nothing more than to come away from this one healthy and untaxed physically. That puts a lot of pressure to put up a lot of points in this game to topple this total, but it is also the reason it seldom happens. The last six games of this type have resulted in 32.3 points per game, falling far below the posted total. The Pats are an incredible 15-2 UNDER in their last 17 vs. very bad defensive teams (allowing 27+ ppg). It worked for us last Monday and it applies again here. Cleveland is 13-4 UNDER the past three seasons following two straight games in which they gained less than 100 yards on the ground. The public sees this one soaring way over this total, as nearly 70% are on the bandwagon carrying money to the window on a high scoring affair. We will follow history to the window, and play the value, which is on the UNDER.
Game: Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (Sunday 10/07 4:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay +9.5
The Indianapolis Colts are once again 4-0 but their win at Denver last week did not come without a price. Marvin Harrison and Joesph Addai will both likely be held out of this game vs. the Bucs. Four other Colts players were hurt including starting LB Rob Morris who is out for the season. The Bucs may be the most improved team this season this side of the Green Bay Packers. Last week Tampa Bay went on the road and manhandled Carolina 23-7. If not for a meaningless touchdown with 23 seconds left in the game, it would have been a shutout. In that game, the Bucs defense allowed just 13 first downs and 236 total yards. In their last three games, they have allowed just 24 total points and they lead the league in fewest total points allowed at just 11 per game. The Tampa Bay defense is back, having allowed just one TD in their last two games. Jeff Garcia has had a huge impact on this team. He has bounced around in his NFL career but one thing has remaind constant - he wins. He is a heady QB that does not make a lot of mistakes and has yet to throw an interception this year. He has wideouts on both sides in Galloway and Hilliard that are capable of going the distance. The Bucs lost Cadillac Williams, which actually may benefit the offense. Williams was getting most of the carries but he has been pretty bad, totalling just 208 yards at 3.9 ypc. . Michael Pittman has been much more effective as he has 30-170 for 5.7 ypc. And sharing carries with Pittman will be Ernest Graham who has rushed for 4.5 ypc. The Bucs strength is running the ball, which is Indy's well-known achillies heel. The Colts rank #22 in stopping the run allowing 127.5 yards per game. That is a the worst for any team considered playoff caliber. That number is worse than it appears because Indy has been playing with a lead and teams are more prone to be in the air. Indy's offense will not be as difficult to defend without Harrison and Addai. Even if they play, they won't be at 100%. The Bucs, as bad as they have struggled in recent years, are on a 10-2 ATS run vs. top teams (those outscoring opponents by 10+ points per game). Mark our words - the Bucs are for real in 2007! We like them to make a game out of this, and if they manage a plus turnover margin, get the outright win! The generous spread is a bit out of line here.
Results: 2-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-October-01-2007
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NFL-Football-Picks-September-28-2007
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NFL-Football-Picks-September-24-2007
What's wrong with the Saints? Last year this team nearly made it to the Super Bowl and their offense was unstoppable. This year they are 0-2, scoring 12 points per game and allowing 36 per game. A...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-20-2007
Tampa Bay, 4-12 last season, is off to a 1-1 start and coming off a big win over the Saints last Sunday. They shut out New Orleans' once potent offense for nearly three full quarters. Pop Qui...
NFL-Football-Picks-September-17-2007
This line is +7 at some books and +6.5 at others. We recommend you get it at 7 even if that means at your book you have to buy a half point. Let's face it. The Eagles didn't look good last wee...
