Free Football Picks - October 04, 2009
The dogs took a beating last week to the tune of 5-11 ATS, capped off on Monday night by Carolina letting a 16 point halftime cushion slip away. It was a week to forget. I look for the dogs to come back with some bite this week. There's not a ton of value out there this week in my opinon but I do like three picks on Sunday...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Cincinnati at Cleveland (Sunday 10/04 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +6 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Cleveland Browns have looked extremely ugly over their first three games and enter week four looking for their first win. While the Browns are certainly far from a good team, they are not nearly as bad as they have looked either. They have played three games against good teams that are 9-0 and outscoring their opponents 251-126 (14 points per game). These Browns' opponents rank No. 1, 4 and 7 on defense after three weeks, and offensively rank No. 2, 9, and 18. Cleveland certainly contributed to those inflated stats with their bad play, but those stats are based on nine games, of which hte Browns account for just one third. This week they are facing a much different caliber of team in the Bengals who rank No. 16 offensively and No. 24 defensively. They have to be on an emotional downer here after going on the road and beating Green Bay and coming from a 20-9 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the defending Superbowl Champ Steelers. That last game had to take a lot out of them. Teams after facing the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers are just 13-20 SU and a woeful 9-24 ATS. Included in that mix is an 0-7 ATS contribution by the Bengals. The Browns also made a good move at QB as Brady Quinn simply could not move the team. With Derek Anderson back at QB, Cleveland can at least stretch the field and open up room for the running game. The Browns may look to be at their worst right now, but when posted as a home dog after an ugly game of scoring 6 or less, they are now a perfect 5-0 ATS. This one might have an ugly look to it, but I think laying nearly a TD on the road for the Bengals is asking a lot.
Game: Tampa Bay at Washington (Sunday 10/04 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay +9 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
These teams are both desperate for a win as the Bucs enter 0-3 and the Skins at 1-2. They know that their division hopes will vanish with a loss here. And yes, Tampa Bay is one of a few teams laying claim to worst in the NFL thus far. But the Skins laying 9 points? What? The Redskins just lost to a team that had lost 19 straight games! Prior to that, they barely beat St. Louis as a 10 point favorite. That St. Louis win came with some luck as the Rams (who have lost 13 straight by the way) fumbled the ball inside the Washington 10 yard line late in the game. So, the Skins could easily be 0-3, and they haven't surpassed 17 points scored in a game yet this season. So an ugly loss to an 0-19 team, and a come-from-behind two-point win over an 0-13 team warrants this line? Change will be blowing in the wind in Washington as Bucs’ first-year head coach Raheem Morris is going with QB Josh Johnson in this one. While a QB making his first start may scare some folks, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez have shown that the old stigma assigned to inexperienced QBs is just that - old. While Johnson is not of the caliber of those QBs, his start does not automatically make the Bucs a no-play here. The Redskins have not been able to get it done in this spot as they are 1-7 ATS against teams with a .333 winning percentage or less and 0-5 ATS as a favorite of six or more. As mentioned, the Washington offense has been no where to be found. They have produced just 40 points on the season or 13 per game. The Redskins are on a 3-14-3 ATS run against teams with a losing record. This line indicates that the Redskins are a much, much better team. But, when are they going to show it? The Bucs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following three straight losses and I'm going with them here.
Game: San Diego at Pittsburgh (Sunday 10/04 8:20 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on San Diego +6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
There is always going to be potential line value when the defending Superbowl Champs are playing at home, and I see that in this line. The Steelers have taken on the familiar post-Superbowl lethargy, and realistically could be 0-3 entering this one. They have lost to two teams they were supposed to beat in Chicago and Cincinnati and they barely escaped one in OT against the now 0-3 Tennessee Titans. The Steelers have been outscored through their first three games and are now a TD favorite against a very talented San Diego team that will have playoffs revenge on their minds when they visit Pittsburgh for this one. There is a sense of déjà vu going on in Pittsburgh as this team is taking on characteristics of the 2006 team that opened the season 1-3 after winning the Superbowl the previous season. Guess who pinned loss number three on the Steelers in week four that year? Yes, the San Diego Chargers. So be careful about history as it may repeat itself. Pittsburgh is really missing Troy Polamalu, having suffered two upset losses since his absence. Without him, this team that is scoring just 15.7 points per game hasn't had the edge they need. San Diego certainly has a world of talent, and at times it doesn't manifest itself on the field. But this is a big game for them and a big spot, so I expect them to show up here. Norv Turner is superb in this situation as he is 17-5 ATS in his head coaching career as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. And, the Chargers are 32-16 ATS in their last 48 games vs. teamst that average under 17 points per game. This is a San Diego team that has circled like vultures against a team that is reeling, as the Chargers are now a perfect 11-0 ATS as well as 10-1 SU over an AFC team coming off a straight-up loss as a favorite. The Chargers can smell blood here and I expect them to swoop into Pittsburgh with their "A" game. That will be good enough to take down an inflated number - maybe more. The Chargers get the call here.
Results: 2-1
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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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