Well, it doesn't get any better than last week as we went 5-0 capped by the big New Orleans win on Monday night. Five picks again this Sunday.

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	UNITS
NFL	11-3 last 14 picks	79%	+8
CFB	13-7 last 20 picks	65%	+6
MLB	38-21 last 59 picks	64%	+2.9
NHL	208-140 last season	60%	+24.6
CBB	174-128 last season	58%	+46
NBA	207-197 last season	51%	+10
TOTAL			+97.5

Check out my NFL Computer Predictions which predict every game on the board. NOTE: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

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Good luck to you...

Game: New Orleans at Carolina (Sunday 10/01 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on UNDER 41.5

Wow. The Saints delivered as promised on Monay Night in what I thought would be their "Super Bowl" for 2006. Now, off a shortened week, and back on the road, I expect a big letdown from them. NFL teams can't perform at peak emotional levels multiple weeks in a row. I think Carolina covers this spread but I like the play on the UNDER much better. Why? The Saints have found a defense! They are 7th best in the league in points allowed per game. They are 3rd in yards per game and 2nd in yards per play. Their offense is good but not great, and again they are off a big, big game. Carolina has underperformed across the board. Their defense which was supposed to be one of the best, is middle-of-the-road so far. It was much improved last week holding the Bucs to 64 yards rushing and 209 total. Their offense has been horrible, ranked 28th in production. Against the Saints defense, I think they will improve a bit but not have a breakout high-scoring showing. Carolina is 7-0 UNDER the past three seasons at home in division games. I see this one being a low scoring affair.

Man, Cincinnati looks good. They remind me of the Colts of the past few years: A scary offense that propels them to big victories over any and all comers. Think bettors and linesmakers have noticed? I do. Perfect time to fade them! This is a situational play vs. a stats or talent play. On paper, Cincy wins this game by 10 points. But, they have to be getting a bit overconfident at this point. I mean they are 3-0 winning all three by a touchdown or more. Their last win was on the road against the Super Bowl champs - their nemisis Pittsburgh. ESPN analysts are singing their praises. So, this is potential letdown time for the Bengals. New England on the other hand is off an embarrasing home loss as a touchdown favorite on national TV. Denver came in and spanked the Pats in their house by 10 points. You can bank on the fact that Belichick will have his team ready this week. The Bengals are again living off the turnover. They have forced 11 already so far and used 3 last week to get the victory. That's all well and good if they keep coming. But, if they come up on the short end of the turnover margin, things won't be as easy for them. We don't see the Pats as underdogs often and with Belichick at the helm, they are 27-16 ATS in this role. He's also 22-9 ATS off a poor rushing performance (75 or fewer yards) and a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road after a loss by 10+ points. This guy is labeled a genius for a reason. The combination of Cincy winning last week vs. Pittsburgh and New England suffering an embarrassing loss provides a great opportunity here to take the Pats plus 6 points.

This game won't be pleasant for the Arizona Cardinals. Mired in a QB controversy after Kurt Warner's error-prone play thus far, they are walking into the Lion's Den here. Atlanta was bitch-slapped by New Orleans on Monday Night. If you watched the game, you knew, even before the pregame show was over, that Atlanta had no shot. The emotional level of the Saints and their fans was stratospheric. They were going to win that game against any team on Monday night. But now Atlanta is mad. They are mad at how they played and mad at losing. They are a very solid team this year. Throw out last game when assessing the Falcons. Prior to that game, they beat Carolina and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 34-9. Their defense is mean and they'll bring their A-game this Sunday. One of the reasons for backing New Orleans last week was the absence of John Abraham from the Falcon's defense. He has been the difference this year and he is expected back Sunday. If Kurt Warner makes mistakes in the first half of this game, we could see Matt Leinart and that will be disasterous for Arizona. The Cards are 2-9 ATS in the underdog role the past two seaons. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off a road loss and 7-0 ATS after a loss of any kind by 10+ points over the past three seasons. I also have a trend involving favorites the week before their bye that is close to perfect over the past ten years. Teams going into their bye want to go in on a positive note for obvious reasons. When they are favored, they have the tools to do it. They are focused and diligent, leaving nothing on the field and looking ahead to nothing. Added to this is the fact that Atlanta was embarrassed on national TV last week. Huge Falcons bounce back here.

The Chiefs, a top-scoring team from a year ago, are off two terrible showings. They lost 10-23 to Cincinnati and 6-9 to Denver. They come off a bye and I like teams off a bye that have something to prove. They have been laser focused for two weeks, have healed up a bit and they are in desparate need of a win. With high hopes for the playoffs, they need a very good showing to repair their psyche so they will be looking for a blowout. They are without Trent Green but he really hasn't been a good quarterback since 2004. Damon Huard is not great but he's had two weeks now to prepare with the starting offense. And, against the terrible San Francisco defense, he should have success. He won't be asked to do too much as Larry Johnson should be able to tee off at will vs. the Niners. Anyway, it's the KC defense that has impressed me thus far. They held a VERY high-powered Cincinnati offense to 23 points in week one and kept Denver out of the end-zone in week two. They are ranked 11th in total defense and 3rd in pass defense. It's a good thing as San Francisco's offense has improved markedly over last year (averaging 382 yards per game). But San Fran's defense is allowing 349 yards per game and they are again ranked near the bottom of the league. The Chiefs are 8-1 in the favorite role over the past two seasons. They are very hungry for a win and well rested. I see a KC blowout here as the offense delivers big.

I know, I know. Making this pick will make you sick to your stomach. Are we really backing the Raiders? Yes. They have become the laughing stock of the league after two horrible showings. They lost 0-27 to San Diego in week one on national TV and then 6-28 to Baltimore in week two. But are they that bad? They are certainly one of the league's weakest teams but maybe not as bad as people think. For one, we have since learned that San Diego and Baltimore are pretty good. The Chargers top most NFL power ratings and the Ravens aren't far behind. Both are top 5 teams right now. And, in the loss to the Ravens, Oakland had six turnovers so a 28-6 loss is not unexpected. Aaaron Brooks has looked horrible so his replacement by Andrew Walter can't make things worse. Maybe it will actually spark this offense. And, the Raiders have had two weeks to prepare him and fix their issues. They desparately need a win here and will be ready. Forgive me but I am not yet ready to pronounce the 0-3 Cleveland Browns worthy of being a road favorite - regardless of their opponent. Cleveland is third-worst in the league in offense (258 yards per game). Winless dogs off their bye are a 67% proposition in the NFl against the spread. And, underdogs off a horrible performance are also good bets - classic contrarian. Here we get a team off two terrible performances as a home underdog to an 0-3 team that is not very good. I look for the Raiders to likely notch their first win of the season here in a good spot for them. Getting a field goal on them is even better.