Nfl Football Expert Pick - November 30, 2009

We're 6-3-1 on the week thus far, narrowly missing an 8-1-1 week as St. Louis and Arizona ruined winners in the waining seconds. Oh well. Tonight we wrap up the week with a pick in the big MNF matchup...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	23-14 last 37 picks	62%	+$1790
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	22-14 last 36 picks	61%	+$880
NHL	94-58 last 152 picks	62%	+$7220
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$23750

 

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: New England at New Orleans (Monday 11/30 8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New Orleans -1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The New Orleans Saints will try to keep pace with the unbeaten Colts as they host the New England Patriots in a heavyweight match tonight. The oddsmakers opened this game with the Saints as a 3-point favorite, indicating these teams are essentially even. The betting public has proclaimed New England the better team, pushing this line down to just 1.5 points. So apparently the 10-0 Saints are the worse team here? Hmmmm. Let's not forget that New England has lost three games on the season, and they also own the worse ATS record. For some reason, people just don't believe that the Saints can be better than the Patriots. Everyone remembers the New England 16-0 season from 2007 where their offense put up 36.8 points per game. This Saints’ offense is currently a tick better at 36.9 ppg. It will be difficult for the Pats to slow them down without QB pressure on Brees, and that isn't the Pats’ specialty. New England has recorded just 18 sacks on the season. Looking at the Patriots, it is evident that they have struggled on the road vs. good teams over the last couple of years. They have lined up with just five teams with winning records since the beginning of last season on the road, and are just 1-4. The lone win was a revenge win vs. the Dolphins last year. The Patriots are just 1-3 straight-up on the road this season, yet they are a virtual pick'em a the 10-0 Saints here on Monday night? Hmmmm. New Orleans fits into a nice situation for this game. Teams off a division win that have to come back and play on Monday Night are 47-18 ATS over the last 25 years! The Saints are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a road game. The biggest difference in this game is the fact that the Saints can not only pass the ball, they run for over 150 yards per game as well. So the New Orleans offense can beat you either way, while the Pats are going to have to win in the air. The Saints, unlike most NFC teams, have not had trouble facing the AFC as they are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS the last two years. The Pats are just 7-15-1 ATS after a straight up win in their last 23, and just when you think their defense is ready to bite, they disappoint. After allowing 15 points or less, the Pats are 4-11 ATS in their next game. This is a huge statement game for New Orleans, and they get it at home. I'll go with the team I think is better here - the New Orleans Saints.

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our nfl week 7 picks.
• Read our week 8 nfl picks here.
• Check out our updated nfl picks week 4.
• Updated today: week two nfl picks.
• View our week 6 nfl picks here.
• Here we show our NFL against-the-spread records.
• Read our expert nfl picks here.
• Updated today: blog football picks .
• View our updated football handicapping service.
• View nfl week 11 picks here.
• View our week twelve nfl picks here.
• View our NFL matchups and analysis here.
• Read our week 1 nfl picks here.
• Here we show our nfl picks week nine .
• Check out week ten nfl picks here.
• Updated today: 2009 NFL team over-under predictions.
• Take a look at our nfl picks week thirteen here.
• Updated today: 2009 NFL football season picks.
• View our NFL Football Game-of-Week-Preview here.
• Here we show our nfl sports book.
• Here we show our Why NFL underdogs are a smart bet.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week 14 picks.
• Hop over to our football confidence pool picks here.
• View NFL previous picks here.
• Check out our updated NFL football halftime bets.
• Check out week five nfl picks here.
• Take a look at our Betting the NFL playoffs here.
• Hop over to our Football odds and lines here.
• View our updated nfl picks week three .
• Here we show our pro football predictions.
• Check out our updated nfl week 17 picks.
• View our updated nfl picks week fifteen .
• Here we show our week 16 nfl picks.
• Take a look at our Superbowl picks here.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-November-27-2009
Yes, the Redskins are in shambles. They have a lame duck head coach and they can't score. They are coming off a game in which they scored 6 poitns. This all makes them a good team to consider back...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-25-2009
The Lions have not won or covered a Thanksgiving Day game in the last five seasons. In those games, their offense has been atrocious. They have scored 10 points or less in four of the last five. They ...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-23-2009
The Texans are at game 10, standing at 5-4 as a legitimate wildcard contender in the AFC for the first time in franchise history. That makes this game vital for them to go to next week with the same o...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-20-2009
This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-19-2009
The Dolphins took a big hit this week as they placed Ronnie Brown on the IR. He's done for the season and the Fins one of their most potent weapons. Many will point towards that as the demise...