Football Winning Picks - November 29, 2009

We went 2-0 on Thanksgiving and now stand at 19-11 in the second-half of the season. On Sunday I have eight picks. I also have an article below regarding the change of fortunes for undedogs and favorites.

I'm on fire across all sports. My NHL 5-unit picks are 21-3 this season and I'm on a 13-2 run in college basketball. Over the past three weeks across all sports I am 135-98 for +72 units ($7,200 for $100 players). If you aren't getting my basketball or hockey picks and would like them, reply and let me know.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	19-11 last 30 picks	63%	+$1910
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	19-9 last 28 picks	68%	+$1730
NBA	23-20 last 43 picks	53%	($30)
NHL	89-53 last 142 picks	63%	+$7440
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$24910

 

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Washington at Philadelphia (Sunday 11/29 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Washington +9 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Yes, the Redskins are in shambles. They have a lame duck head coach and they can't score. They are coming off a game in which they scored 6 poitns. This all makes them a good team to consider backing. Remember, buy low and sell high. When no one wants to touch a team, that's often the team that covers an (inflated) spread. The Washington offense has been performing better than the points they have to show for it. Since their bye, QB Jason Campbell has thrown just two INTs and one of those was a desperation heave. The offensive line is finally giving him some time as he has suffered just four sacks in the last two games after suffering 27 previously. RB Rock Cartwright has replaced the injured Portis and Betts, and has become part of the passing game with seven catches a week ago. While they have put up some stinkers, the Skins ahve scored 17+ in four of their last six games. The Eagles come into this game at 6-4 and the pressure is off a bit with the Giants’ loss on Thanksgiving. They have to have one eye ahead here as they hit the road vs. Atlanta and the Giants in their next two games. Those are the two teams they are challenging for a wildcard berth. While the Skins are playing better, the Eagles are not. Not including the debacle vs. New Orleans early on, the Eagles’ defense allowed no other team to score more than 17 points through their first seven games. They have allowed each of their last three opponents to hang 20+ on them. At the same time the offense was at 27+ for five of the first seven games and has not reached that total in the last three. The Eagles are down significantly on both sides of the ball, while Washington is playing better. I think the points are too high here for a division rivalry game and I'll grab the Skins.

The Browns were stunned with no time left on the clock a week ago vs. the Lions, suffering a heartbreaking one-point loss. But was it really that heart-breaking? This is a team that needed something to give them confidence and they got it. They scored more points in that game than they had in their previous five combined. Sometimes, until you do it you don't believe that you can, and that performance should boost the confidence in the Browns offense. The Bengals offense isn't nearly as bad as the Browns, but they are having issues of their own. They went on the road a week ago and lost to lowly Oakland. The Bengals have scored 18 points or less in five of their last six games! Rewinding the tape, the Browns previous high water mark offensively this season was achieved vs. the Bengals, in a 23-20 OT loss. Cleveland out-played the Bengals in that game, moving the chains for more first downs, more rushing yards, and more passing yards than Cincinnati. And, they didn't get a spike from turnovers as they were even. The Browns found themselves in the red zone in that game five times. It is hard to back a team struggling to score as a two TD chalk, regardless of the competition. The Browns have built off of their few offensive performances by going 7-0 ATS after a game where they passed for 250+, and the Bengals are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite. The Bengals have gone 0-6 ATS the past three seasons vs. bad offensive teams (those averaging 14 or fewer ppg). Over that same span, Cleveland is 6-0 ATS after scoring 30+ in a game. The Dog has cashed the last five in this series and Cleveland will make it six. The Brownies get the nod here.

When you think of the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, the first thing that comes to mind is offense. But, that can mislead you. The Colts own the #1 ranked defense in points allowed (15.7 per game). The Texans have actually played some pretty good defense of late. After allowing 24 points or more in four of their first five games, the Texans have not allowed more than 21 in any of the last five games, having averaged just 17.6 ppg allowed in the five games. At the same time, an offense that went for 21+ in seven straight games and 24+ in six of the seven has gone for just 17 in back-to-back games. One of those low-scoring games was against the Colts just two games back where they also held the Colts’ offense to 20 points. The Colts got in a shootout vs. New England, but they have scored 20 or less in three of their last four. Houston is suddenly a defensive team, leading to six of their last seven going UNDER the total. The Colts have played nine of their last twelve against the AFC to the UNDER as well. The Texans have now gone seven straight to the UNDER with a total of 47.5 or higher, and 12 of their last 16 overall have gone UNDER the total. I like this one to stay UNDER the total.

I think there is a distinct advantage playing this game UNDER. The Rams have no offense outside of Steven Jackson, which means they have to run the ball a lot hoping to move the chains. Now QB Mark Bulger is out, and that means a downgrade to Kyle Boller. Boller has 47 TD passes for his career but also 47 INTs - that's why he is a backup with a career passer rating of 70. He has not completed a pass for over 25 yards in three years. That makes a St. Louis offense that has touched 20 points just five times in their last 27 games even weaker. The Seahawks offense on the road is no bargain either as they have not won a game in five tries, but have also failed to top the 20-point mark in their five road tests. So we have two teams that can't top 20 with a total in the low 40s? I see plenty of value on an UNDER play, and that's my call.

The Dolphins are a good football team but their recent results have been a bit misleading. Four weeks ago they beat the Jets but in that game they were out-played and were outgained by over 200 yards. They gained a total of 104 yards in that game. The following week they lost by double digits to the Pats. Then, they struggled against the Buccaneers, barely garnering a 2-point win at home as a double-digit favorite. Last week against Carolina they were again out-gained, but managed to win. So, my feeling is they are a bit overrated at this point. They now head to the road where they are posted as a favorite, always a dangerous situation for a struggling team. Miami's run defense has been getting eaten alive as they have now gone six straight games yielding 109 yards or more. The Bills have been struggling themselves. Or have they? They have had the unfortunate luck of playing their last three games against hot opponents, all of which were on two-game winning streaks and playing their best football of the season at the time. The Bills have covered the spread in three of their last five games. The Dolphins have followed an ATS win by going 13-28-1 ATS in their next game over the last 42, and do not wear the favorite hat very well as they are a futile 7-23 ATS in their last 30 in the favorite role. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Buffalo. The Fins have gone 0-7 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that score under 17 points per game and they are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 vs. teams at .400 or worse. The public is all over Miami here to the tune of 74%, but I like Buffalo to keep this one close.

The Chargers have won five straight games and everyone is in their corner right now, including the odds-makers. They won in Kansas City earlier in the season by 30, when they weren't even playing well. Now they are on a roll having won five in a row by a combined score of 145-69 and they are coming off a game in which they won 32-3. So, why not a repeat blowout here? Well for starters this isn't the same Chiefs team that was 1-5 when they were facing the Chargers. That team was being outscored on average 26-15 at the time. But the team since has won two in a row, and has outscored opponents by a 21-19 margin in their last three. That is an improvement of seven points per game on both sides of the ball. The biggest difference, in addition to finally getting used to a new head coach and system, is getting rid of Larry Johnson who was killing the running game at a putrid 2.7 yards per carry. Jamaal Charles, with the same offensive line, is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Suddenly the new-found rushing game has created opportunities for Matt Cassel who has averaged more yards per pass in the last three games than any of the previous six he has started. The added time on the field offensively has allowed the defense to play better. The Chiefs have a 14-6 ATS log in their last 20 on the road, and the Chargers will be going through the motions as a big home chalk, cashing just one of their last seven at 10.5+. The Chargers have to be believing their own press by now and a letdown here is not out of the question. Norv Turner has a history of such letdowns as his teams are 12-27 ATS when facing teams at .400 or worse. The Chiefs have gone 9-1 ATS in their last ten games as a double-digit dog. They are also 8-1 ATS the past three seasons revenging a loss in which they scored 14 or fewer points. I like KC with the two touchdowns.

The 49ers trailed the Packers last week on the road by 20 points with 11 minutes left in the game. It would have been easy to mail it in, but this team didn't. They got to within six with a chance to win before falling short. That tells me they haven't quit. The Jags are suddenly a "good" team after three straight wins have put them in the wildcard picture at 6-4. But what really to make of the Jags. This team was 3-4 to start the season. The three recent wins came against Kansas City who was 1-6 at the time, a 2-point win over a Jets team that is 1-6 in their last seven, and a come-from-behind 3-point win vs. a Buffalo team that is 2-6 in their last eight. So do we really think the Jags have turned the corner? Their last win before these three was an OT win at home vs. what was a winless St. Louis team. The quality of the Jags’ last four wins shows teams that were 4-23 in recent play. So while it appears the Jags are surging, they are really a mediocre team that has taken advantage of being just a notch above the poor teams they have played. That has positioned them as even against the San Francisco (allowing for the three-point home field advantage). I disagree with that assessment as I believe the Niners are the better team, in need of a win. While Jacksonville has benefited from a soft schedule, the Niners have faced a really tough one. They are 1-5 in their last six games (and 2-6 in their last eight) but look who the losses came to: Minnesota, Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee (the resurrgent version) and Green Bay. Four of those five losses were on the road vs. good teams. When playing mediocre competition (as they are here), San Francisco has performed very well. Versus Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis and Chicago, the Niners are 4-0, winning on average by a score of 22-8. This is a huge game for the Niners at 4-6. A loss and their season is over. I look for them to rise and play with passion, and deliver their "A" game, which is simply better than the Jags right now.

The Titans were left for dead after an 0-6 start, but they have turned it around with four straight wins with Vince Young back under center. Young said this week he was surprised by the 4-0 record. I think he's on to something. Tennessee has certainly improved. But, to go from 0-6 to 4-0 requires some luck. That luck has come in the form of eight opponent turnovers in the first three wins (vs. just one for Tennessee). You could argue that Young is doing a good job at not turning the ball over. But, the reality is, turnoves are mostly random. When things even out (as they always do), the Titans will find the wins harder to come by. This week they will be facing an equally hot team in the Arizona Cardinals that has won six out of seven. The Cards struggled some early on offense, but it was just a matter of time before they got it going. Over the last seven games they have produced 21 or more points. The Titans will be playing this one on a short week and facing the most complete team they have since starting 0-6. The Cards have really been a tough out playing in the role of an underdog where they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven posted as a dog, including 5-0 ATS as a road dog. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Playing on Sunday following a Monday game, the Titans are 0-6 ATS on the short week. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. I like Arizona here who I believe is the better team on both sides of the ball and getting points.

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-November-25-2009
The Lions have not won or covered a Thanksgiving Day game in the last five seasons. In those games, their offense has been atrocious. They have scored 10 points or less in four of the last five. They ...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-23-2009
The Texans are at game 10, standing at 5-4 as a legitimate wildcard contender in the AFC for the first time in franchise history. That makes this game vital for them to go to next week with the same o...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-20-2009
This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-19-2009
The Dolphins took a big hit this week as they placed Ronnie Brown on the IR. He's done for the season and the Fins one of their most potent weapons. Many will point towards that as the demise...

NFL-Football-Picks-November-16-2009
The Browns have not been impressive offensively. In fact they have been downright awful. But this is a situation that backs them. They are coming off a bye and getting double-digits at home from a tea...