A disappointing week thus far as we are 3-4 and 9-11 on a unit basis going into tonight. But, we look to notch a winning week with a win tonight.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Green Bay at Seattle (Monday 11/27 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Green Bay +10.5

Green Bay comes in off a 0-35 spanking at the hands of the Patriots. Brett Favre went down in that game and Aaaron Rodgers was thrown to the wolves, going 4 for 12 for 32 yards and a fumble. Tom Brady carved up the Green Bay defense as the Pack got shutout for the second time this season. Now no one can bring themselves to back the Packers tonight. But we will. I know what you are saying to yourself. How can we possibly get behind the hapless Packers here off that kind of performance? But, the reason we are going with Green Bay is exactly that performance. Forget everything else. Forget Hasslebeck and Alexander's return. Forget the stats. You see, teams off that kind of performance bounce back in their next game. The fact is that teams off a shutout are 34-15 ATS since 1991. This year, they are only 4-5. But, if we look at shutout losses by 30+ points (an incredibly humiliating loss), teams in their next game are 12-2 ATS over that span. I don't know about you, but 86% ATS sounds pretty good to us! There have been two such instances already in 2006. In week four, San Francisco got hammered by Kansas City 0-41. The next week they beat Oakland 34-20 as a three point favorite. The following week the Jets lost to Jacksonville 41-0. They came out next game and beat Miami 20-17 covering the spread. Why do teams that get hammered this bad perform so well the next week? Pride and emotion. These are pro athletes and when their manhood gets challenged, they come back with everything they have. Meanwhile, we get line value as the public jumps all over their opponent and inflates the line. This one started at -9.5 and has jumped to -10.5, crossing a very key number of 10. Our contrarian approach often leads to picking ugly underdogs. While the past two weeks it hasn't worked out so well, over the course of this entire season it has been gold. We're not abandoning it here as we'll take 15 years of NFL history over two weeks of results. It tells us the ugly underdog is the strong play in this one.
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