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Nfl Monday Night Football Line Picks - November 26, 2009We went 6-2 in the NFL last week. My over/under picks have hit 65% (11-6) this year during the regular season (30-17 on these last year) and I've got one for Thursday. Last season we hit 63% (59-35) in the second half of the season overall and this season we are off to a 17-11 (61%) second-half. We'll keep things rolling with two Thanksgiving Day picks. Sunday picks will be sent out as normal on Friday. Basketball and hockey continue to scorch. Over the past three weeks across all sports we are 123-95 for +47.8 units ($4,780 for $100 players). NBA is hitting 60% over that span, and we are on a 10-1 run in college hoops.
 Today's NFL Football Picks: The Lions have not won or covered a Thanksgiving Day game in the last five seasons. In those games, their offense has been atrocious. They have scored 10 points or less in four of the last five. They will enter this one in a challenging offensive spot yet again, likely without QB Matthew Stafford and an injury-slowed Calvin Johnson. In two games played without Johnson this year, they scored 10 and 0 points. The goose-egg came against this Green Bay team. The Packers are starting to get the running game going and that will help take ticks off the clock. And their defense is really stepping up. They have allowed just 272 yards per game on the road this season and 280 per game overall their last three. Bad teams simply haven't scored much vs. this Packers' defense this year. The bad teams (Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland and Tampa Bay) have averaged just 14.6 ppg on the Pack. And, that includes a fluky 38 put up by Tampa. Take that game out and the other four averaged just 8.75 per game! They didn't give the Lions an inch in their 26-0 shutout earlier this season and I don't see them getting much room here either. When you start talking about a total that is high enough that only about 6% of all NFL games are posted with a total this high, it usually means that there are two good offenses in the game. The Lions unfortunately, have the No. 24 ranked offense in the league and are missing some guns, or at the very least they aren't going to be healthy. That turns a bad offense into something unspeakably worse as we have seen from this Lions team before this year. I like this one to go UNDER the total.Game: New York Giants at Denver (Thursday 11/26 8:20 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Denver +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Denver hit a low last week. After a 6-0 start, they have lost four in a row, the last game a 32-3 drubbing that allowed San Diego to take over the division lead - something that seemed unthinkable when they owned a 3.5 game lead just four weeks ago. They have been outscored 117-37 over their losing streak. Even during their winning streak, Denver didn't get much support from the oddsmakers or public. After four weeks of horrid football, no one wants to touch them. The oddsmakers had to open them as a big home dog, and the public has pushed the line even higher. I believe Denver is ready to make a stand. New York comes in here off a win, but is this team really deserving of a TD-road favorite role? Before last week's win, the Giants had lost four in a row. They haven't covered the spread in five straight games. And, even in the win their defense gave up 31 points. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 164 points - 32.8 per game! That's just the kind of defense that Denver needs to face right now. Coming in off a very short week, it's not likely that New York was able to remedy what ails them defensively. So there's no reason to expect a major change this week. Antonio Pierce is still out and that only makes matters worse for the G-Men defense. On offense, the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw. With Brandon Jacobs having a bad year, and coming off a leg injury, don't expect the Giants to run the ball particularly well, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked 7th in the league in points allowed. Give me the home team with the much better defense, getting a touchdown. NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-November-23-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-November-20-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-November-19-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-November-16-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-November-13-2009 |
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