We hit two of three on Thanksgiving, putting us at 5-2 on a unit basis going into Sunday. Four more Sunday picks this week.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Sunday 11/26 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Pittsburgh +3

Everyone is wondering what happened to the Steelers this year. Where is the Steel Curtain defense? Where is the offense? It's a mystery to most but we think we have the answer - a simple one. You just don't win NFL games when your turning the ball over 20 times in 5 losses, and your opponent is turning it over only 7 times! Four of the Steeler losses had Pittsburgh notching 18 turnovers vs. 6 for their opponents. In those games, Pittsburgh on average outplayed their opponents gaining 96 first downs to just 61 for their opponents! The Steelers outgained all 4 of these opponents in losses by 154 yards a game! Think about this because it is huge. They have generated an average of 9 more first downs than the opponents with an average of 3 less possessions per game. They have outgained these opponents by 154 yds per game, despite spotting them 3 extra possessions. The fact is that this is the same Steelers team as last year. Big Ben took a while to get things going after appendix surgery, a motorcycle accident, and a concussion. He was "off" in the early season. But, we have seen a different team the past two weeks than we have seen all season. There is a hint to what the oddsmakers think in the posted line. When is the last time you have seen an NFL team on a four game winning streak, playing at home with an 8-2 record vs. a team that is 4-6, that is considered even? They are giving the obligatory 3 points for home field advantage. What it is saying to us is the Steelers are the better team in the oddsmakers eyes, and they are to us as well. Baltimore has shown some chinks in the armor over the second half of the season. They held opponents to 9.2 ppg over the first 5 games, but have yielded 20.2 ppg over the last five. There is one major difference here. Pittsburgh is playing for their playoff lives, and believe they can run the table, and finish 10-6. Baltimore is in the driver's seat, and will come to play, but the emotional edge goes to Pittsburgh. We all know what this team is capable of when they are right, and they are as close to right for this weeks game, than they have been all season.

You have to wonder about the mindset of the Atlanta Falcons right now. A team that started out looking like a possible Superbowl contender, and a couple of Michael Vick games that led everyone to believe he has turned the corner, has turned into a disaster. It is easy to see what is happening. They just can't move the ball anymore. Since their opening week versus Carolina (when the Panthers weren't very good), the Falcons have had a relatively easy schedule. They have only played 3 games against teams with a winning record. It is very revealing to take a look at those games versus good football teams. They have been outscored in those games 25-9! They have lost the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball, as they have only managed 40 first downs, but have allowed 67. That is -9 per game in first downs. They have been outgained by 334 yards 744 to 1078. It certainly is hard to win football games that way, and especially hard to cover games giving points to the opponent. New Orleans has been a good story all season, and this team has the ability to stay in games. We like road teams that can pass the ball in the NFL on the road. New Orleans will bring with into Atlanta the #1 passing team in the NFL, and will be facing the #29th ranked pass defense. The Saints will score here. They are putting up 25 ppg which is good for 7th in the league. They are first in the league in yards per game. Atlanta is not a good team when they have to score. Their offense is made for pounding the ball in the trenches and sitting on leads. As a result, they are just 14-32 ATS the last 46 games vs. high scoring teams scoring 24+ per game (including 0-4 the last three years). New Orleans is the better team and they are getting three. They probably win it outright and we have the points as insurance.

This will be the third week of the last four that we have been on Cleveland. Why do we continue to back this apparently ugly dog? They continue to be underrated and they have been one of the steadiest teams all season long in the topsy-turvy NFL. Cinncinati is off of a big win, but in '06 they have not looked like last year's team when they seemed to sneak up on everyone. Cinncinati got off to a big start at 3-0. But, they are just 2-5 since then, covering the spread in just one of those games. Cleveland on the other hand started 0-2, and has been 3-4 since then, covering 5 of 7. The Browns seem to play the same kind of game every single week, winning some games despite a schedule that has been brutal. They have played 8 of 10 games vs. teams that are .500 or higher. It is one of a very few NFL teams with which you know what your getting every single week. The last 7 weeks it's the 2-5 Bengals vs the 3-4 Browns, playing at the dog pound versus the 3-4 team (the Browns), getting points. The line value here is decidedly with the Browns. They have beaten the line by 3.5 ppg in their last eight games, while the Bengals have lost to the line by 8+ ppg in their 6 non-covers over the past 7 weeks. The public still believes in the Bengals and Ocho Cinco, as over 80% has claimed the Bengals, but we see it much differently. Don't let the hype from last week's big Cincinnati win put you on the wrong side of this game. Cleveland is the play.

Jacksonville strolls into Buffalo with the league's third best defense in both points and yards allowed. They've been a bit under the radar on this front as the media prefers to tout the defenses of Denver, Carolina, Baltimore and Miami - all of which are worse than the Jags. After Chicago, you can make a case for Jacksonville as having the best defense of the remainder of the teams. Not good for Buffalo - a team ranked 29th in scoring and 30th in yards gained. They score 16.4 ppg and with Jacksonville holding opponents to 13.7, it will be very difficult for the Bills to score today. And Jacksonville is no offensive powerhouse, putting up just 21 ppg. They had two blowout games against terrible defenses in which they scored 41 vs. the Jets and 37 against Tennessee. Take those two games out and they are averaging just 16.6 per game. The oddsmakers expect an 19-16 affair. But we don't see Buffalo managing over 14 and maybe not more than 10. Against elite defenses this year (NE, MIA, MIN, CHI), they are averaging just 12.6 per game. And, defenses of this caliber (NE and CHI) have held the Bills to a touchdown or less. This is more likely to be a 17-10 game.