Free Football Pick By Handicapper - November 25, 2007
After a rough Turkey Day, we look to rebound on Sunday with four picks...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Buffalo at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/25 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Buffalo +9
Buffalo saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in a miserable 56-10 rout at the hands of New England. The only thing to say about this one is - throw it out. New England is a man among boys this season and they have blown out everyone not named the Colts. Trent Edwards has made a difference on this Bills team, as they are 5-1 in his starts if you exclude the Patriots game. The Bills defense is vastly underrated and isn't that bad. They have played six games vs. teams ranked 1, 1, 2, 5, 10 and 11. There is no doubt that they have had trouble stopping the league's top offenses, allowing 30.2 ppg vs. these teams. But all others are getting just 10.3 ppg and less than 300 yards per game vs. this Bills defense! The same can be said for their offense. They have played four games vs. the top six defenses in the league, having produced just 9.8 ppg. But versus all other teams, they have managed nearly double that at 19 ppg. Jacksonville is not a team that puts up big points. In their last five games, despite a 3-2 record, the Jags have been out-scored by 16 points. Over those five games, they have yielded 24.6 ppg. Jacksonville just may be looking ahead here a bit to next week's game vs. Indianapolis too. The Bills should be able to score enough here, and hold Jacksonville down enough to make this lofty spread produce a winner for the dog.
Game: New Orleans at Carolina (Sunday 11/25 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Carolina +3
The Thanksgiving Day loss by the Lions has opened the door of hope for some of the NFC mediocre teams. Suddenly the seven teams sitting at 5-5 or 4-6 are within striking distance of the wildcard. The winner here at 5-6 moves to within one game. Carolina has not won a home game all season, putting them in the company of the Rams and the Dolphins. But certainly they don't belong in that company. Just when you think the Saints have gotten it back after rattling off four straight wins, they give St. Louis their first win of the season. Then they face an injured and depleted Houston team and lay another egg. This demise began long before this year however. The early pointspread darlings of 2006 that were 9-4 ATS, have now been a bettor's nightmare, going 4-11 ATS last 15. The defense is ranked 26th and this team just seems to find ways to lose games. Carolina has now dropped four straight and can't score. But wasn't that St. Louis' story two weeks ago? Yes, and they hung 37 on these Saints. The Panthers needed just 241 yards of offense to beat them earlier in the year, so we aren't getting too caught up on the Carolina offense. This is a Saints defense that is suffering from multiple injuries, and we expect Carolina to move the ball well enough to cover and win here. The Panters are 16-5-3 ATS in their last 24 as a dog, so this is a role in which they are more comfortable. We look for Carolina to break through at home and get the win.
Game: Oakland at Kansas City (Sunday 11/25 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Oakland +6
Oakland is having another rough season. Offensively this team has problems finding the endzone. Kansas City has faced similar problems. When they played each other earlier it was very apparent that both struggle as they played to a 12-10 final score. Oakland has played five games vs. teams ranked in the top 14 in the league offensively, having allowed 27.2 ppg. But, the Raidres have done good against inept offenses. Versus teams ranked #20 or lower, they have also played five games, giving up just 87 points or 17.2 ppg. If you take out San Diego, a team with multiple offensive weapons, the Raiders have allowed just 14.8 ppg. The Cheifs woes have been season long on offense. They have produced a total of 66 points in seven of the 10 games they have played (9.4 ppg). They have managed to find the end-zone just 12 times all season, and four of those came deep into the 4th quarter. The last three weeks the Chiefs have run for a total of 200 yards on 71 carries (just 2.8 ypc). Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes ran for 173 of the 200, and neither will be playing in this one. The last two times these teams matched up, Johnson accounted for the only Chiefs TD and 133 of their 286 yards of offense. The Chiefs are last in the NFL running the ball, and with Johnson and Holmes out they simply have no one proven to handoff to. The problem is a mix of poor offensive line play, play calling and lack of good QB play as Johnson and Holmes accounted for 696 yards on 204 carries (3.4 ypc) which is hardly an effective running attack. The rest of the backs have 43 carries for 79 yards, good or 1.84 ypc. That is what they bring to this game. Oakland brings in the #6 rated pass defense. With a KC offense that hasn't been able to score, and a one-dimensional attack that will play into Oakland's strength, this becomes a lot of points. We will take the dog here.
Game: Houston at Cleveland (Sunday 11/25 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110
Cleveland certainly has no defense while both of these teams can score. Cleveland has gone OVER in six straight games. But, none of those totals was this high, and the average was 46 - 5 full points below this number. This is by far the highest total Cleveland has seen this season, despite facing better offenses in New England and Pittsburgh (twice). It's also the highest number Houston has seen. We think it's inflated due to recent events, specifically the superb play of Cleveland's offense. In November games featuring a team off a road game in which both teams scored 24+ points, the UNDER has hit at a 68% rate (65-30) over the past ten seasons. If the team off that high-scoring road game is now at home (as is Cleveland), the UNDER is 24-4 (86%)! Houston knows they can't win in a shootout. They will do what they can to keep Cleveland's offense off the field through a steady-dose of running. We like this one to stay UNDER.
Results: 2-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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