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On Thursday there are three games and we like them all! Enjoy your turkey and some great football.

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NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Miami at Detroit (Thursday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Detroit +2.5

Forgive us if we are not yet believers in the Miami Dolphins. We know they are the talk of the town having won three straight games. But let's look at those three games. They beat Kansas City but scored just 13 points. They throttled the Chicago Bears but benefited from six Chicago turnovers. Then last week they had a "false" win over Minnesota. The Fins scored 2 defensive touchdowns in that game, returning a Minnesota fumble for a touchdown for the win. Of their 68 points the past three weeks, 21 have come from the defense. That leaves 15.7 per game from the offense - over their "great" run. Prior to that they were averaging 14.6 per game. So, this offense has shown over the course of 10 weeks, the ability to score about 15 points per game. Detroit's offense is averaging over 18 per game. We know Miami has the better defense. But should this team be laying 3 points on the road on Thanksgiving? We think not. Miami's defense is a bit banged up with SS Travares TIllman out and CB Will Allen questionable for this game. Backing Detroit is a tough pill to swallow after watching them lose two straight to San Francisco and Arizona. But that's exactly why we are getting value on them here. In each of those games, they lost the turnover battle notching 5 total to just 1 against. Both games were winnable. This one is too.

As we stated last week, Dallas was the better team vs. Indianapolis. It was confirmed as they beat the undefeated Colts. While just 6-4 in record, we believe Dallas is one of the league's elite teams right now (top 5 and maybe top 3). With Romo at the helm, they are 3-1 and could easily be 4-0. In those four games, they are averaging 390 yards of offense and 26 points per game. Tampa Bay is averaging just 13.2 points per game - better than just one NFL team (Oakland). They are worse than Oakland in yards per play and could arguably be called the league's worst offense. Their defense is ranked 20th while Dallas' is sixth. The win over Indianpolis gave the Cowboys a shot of confidence that could propel them to an amazing late season run and into the playoffs on a roll. Tampa Bay's offensive woes have come against defenses much worse than this. Against the only two top-ten defenses they have faced (Baltimore and Carolina), they have averaged 11.3 points per game. Tampa Bay, in the Gruden era, is just 9-18 ATS on the road after September. The Cowboys under Parcells are 9-0 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 17 or less per game. The risk here of course, is that Dallas lets down. But on national TV, sitting at 6-4 and in a battle for their division, we don't expect that to happen.

Denver started the year looking like they had the best defense in the entire NFL, allowing two touchdowns in the first 6 games. Kansas City got off to a poor start at 0-2, but have quietly gone 6-2 since. They have Trent Green back, and last week he needed to throw just 10 passes in a win versus Oakland. This Denver team that started off so well defensively, really has gotten exposed since for what they are - average. They suddenly have given up more yards on the year than they have gained! It serves testiment to an offense that has struggled, and a defense that simply isn't as good as first thought. They were outgained by the Steelers 403-221 but won by virtue of 6 turnovers. They were +1 last week to San Diego, and still lost the game by 8 points. The Chiefs, prior to playing well, lost the turnover battle on the road at Denver and still managed an OT game, before losing by a field goal. It is hard to believe that this game is considered a toss-up, with the line opening at Denver -1, and has moved to pick'em even with the public backing Denver. San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle have all left here with losses. Kansas City over the years in pick-em games, or as a dog have been winners ATS over 70% of the time. In late season play, the Chiefs are 8-1 ATS the past two seasons at home. We like them in this spot with revenge, at home on Thanksgiving night, which will serve as a novelty, much the same as the early days of Monday Night Football when the home teams had an overwhelming advantage. Denver is in a bad psychological state - having believed all the early season hype and now dropping two straight and giving up 26 ppg in their last four. These teams are actually pretty evenly matched and KC has the huge homefield advantage.