Nfl Football Expert Pick - November 22, 2007
We suffered a rare losing week in week 11 - just our second losing week in the last seven. We have three picks on Thanksgiving. We'll have Sunday's picks out on Friday...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: New York Jets at Dallas (Thursday 11/22 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New York Jets +14
This is a potential letdown spot for both teams. The Jets are coming off a big win vs. the Steelers. Meanwhile the Cowboys are off a tough divisional game vs. Washington with their biggest remaining game of the year on-deck (next Thursday vs. the 9-1 Packers). That game vs. the Pack will in all liklihood determine homefield advantage for the playoffs in the NFC. It would be very difficult to expect the Cowboys to be up for this game vs. the Jets. The Cowboys showed that they are susceptible to the letdown (remember the MNF game vs. Buffalo prior to the Cowboys' game vs. New England?). While most view New York as a bad team, we think they are not so terrible. We saw a change earlier this season in Buffalo when they were forced to use Edwards at QB, and we are now seeing a change in the Jets under Clemens. It would be hard to think the Jets defense could keep them in the game, but this team held the Steelers to 16 points. The fact is the Jets have been in every game they have played outside of the opener vs. New England. Save that game, the Jets have played good and have been within 11 points of everyone on their schedule. The last two weeks vs. superb teams (Washington and Pittsburgh), Clemens was at the helm and the Jets scored evenly 39-39. One could argue they are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now, and getting 14 from an opponent that is likely to be sleeping, provides a lot of value. Double-digit road underdogs vs. a team performing very well have covered at a 74% clip including 1-0 this season. Five teams have won games outright this season as a 7+ point underdog and three of the five have covered the next game, so don't expect a Jets letdown, expect the opposite on the national stage. J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets!
Game: Indianapolis at Atlanta (Thursday 11/22 8:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +11.5Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110
Indianpolis has fallen on very hard times. After starting 7-0 and 6-1 ATS, they lost a very important game to New England at home. That was the start of a downward spiral that includes injuries to key players such as Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Anthjony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh. And, other players have not playing like themselves (Manning, Vinatieri, Clark). After the New England loss, they went on to lose to San Diego and had a major scare vs. Kansas City last week. Marvin Harrison will again be out and this past week, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season. This is a repeat of last season when they started out invincible only to post a 2-4 mark from mid November to mid December. This team will be back come playoffs but right now they just aren't right. Peyton Manning has thrown 7 interceptions the past two weeks to just two touchdowns. And the running game has also faltered. After averaging 138 yards per game through their first eight games, the Colts gained just 141 total yards on the ground in their last two games. The Falcons are off a terrible loss to Tampa Bay. They bring back Joey Harrington which is actually a good thing as Leftwhich has been even worse. Their only wins this season have come with Harrington under center. With their stars underperforming, riddled with key injuries, and having a short week to heal and correct things, should the Colts be laying double digits on the road? We don't think so. Yes, it's scary to back Atlanta, especially after their performance last week. But, we track a system that backs certain teams after a really bad performance that's in play here. This system has hit a 61% rate long term and it's 30-16 (65%) this year! Atlanta has played solid defense all season long. They are ranked 15th in defense overall and have kept four opponents to 16 points or less. The most points they have given up was last week thanks to a rare defensive touchdown. The Colts, as mentioned, are trending downward on offense. While scoring 32 points per game in their first seven games, they have averaged just 18 per game their last three. With their offense sagging, and still suffering from injuries, we expect their offense to again be sub-par. Our computer matchup for this game predicts 39 points. We agree that this one will come in UNDER the posted total. The Colts are 6-0 UNDER the pat three seasons on the road vs. non-conference foes. The Falcons are 18-7 UNDER at home the pat two seasons including 9-1 UNDER after having lost 4+ games out of their last six. We'll take the big double digit home dog in this one as well as the UNDER.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-November-19-2007
It isn't too often that we get this bullish on one side of a game, especially a Monday Night game. But once in a while an opportunity presents itself that we love. Tonight is that night. There are...
NFL-Football-Picks-November-16-2007
The Browns certainly are better than most thought they would be. Their offense is very good and they gave the Steelers a scare last week, building a big lead before succumbing to a great team. But hol...
NFL-Football-Picks-November-09-2007
This is the last call for Philadelphia as a loss virtually ends their postseason hopes. You can be sure they bring their "A" game to this one. The Eagles have lost five games, thre...
NFL-Football-Picks-November-05-2007
Pittsburgh has stubbed their toe a couple of times in surprising spots this season, losing to Arizona and Denver. We chalk those up to letdowns vs. weak foes. Outside of those two anomalies, they have...
NFL-Football-Picks-November-02-2007
The result of this game may have more impact on the 2008 draft than for either of these teams in 2007. In this game, if you're taking a side, you may just have to decide which you like t...
