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Nfl Pick - November 23, 2008With the win on Monday night, we capped another winning week last week, giving us 11 winning weeks out of 15 this NFL season. This week I again like the board quite a bit and we'll roll with nine picks.  Today's NFL Football Picks: The playoff chase for these teams has become a long shot at best. Each have had disappointing seasons to date, and will be fighting for a win here to keep some hope alive. Houston has struggled to be the same offense from last year. They produced 30+ points four times last season, but just once this season. While the offense has been productive at home, where they average 26.3 ppg, they have managed to be an ordinary offensive team on the road, where they are scoring just 20.8 ppg. It has always been a problem for this team, as they have now managed just 18.6 ppg on the road in their last 12. This is the reason the Browns are laying a field goal in this game. But, do the Browns really deserve to be favored? They won a nailbiter vs. Buffalo on Monday Night but despite a 4-0 turnover advantage, they nearly lost the game. This team seems to find ways to lose this year (a total reverse from last year). The Browns are 1-4 at home and have the kind of defense that will allow Sage Rosenfels to get comfortable. I like the points in a game that can easily go either way. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns have produced high scoring games of late, but the numbers may be a bit misleading. It took late game flourishes in their last two to produce high finals as 27 and 28 points were scored in the 4th quarter. These teams played in Cleveland last year to a similar total over 50, and played to a 44-point finish. I look for a similar game here. I'll back the Texans and the UNDER here. Game: New England at Miami (Sunday 11/23 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Miami -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) How things have changed in the AFC East. Last year Miami was 1-15 and New England was 16-0. This season, the teams are tied at 6-4 and Miami is going for the season sweep. New England was a 12-point favorite in the first game and lost 38-13. Now Miami is favored and I like their chances. Throw out the prior stats and perceptions. Right now Miami is at least as good as New England. And, at home, they have a big advantage. Bill Belichick has a tough task in this one - how much should he prepare for the Wildcat offense? In their first meeting, he had no answer for it, leading to Miami's convincing win. He'll be more prepared here, but that means less prep time for Miami's standard offense. The Pats are still smarting on defense as Adalius Thomas Rodney Harrison are out and Ty Warren, Eric Alexander, Terrence Wheatley and Lewis Sanders are all day-to-day. This is the biggest game in Dolphin Stadium in years. I expect the atmosphere to be electric and for the Dolphins to make a statement. Game: New York Giants at Arizona (Sunday 11/23 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 Everyone is waiting for the Giants to expose a weakness, but none has yet appeared. They grind down defenses with a punishing 3-headed running game and when needed, Eli Manning makes a play. The defense has allowed 14 points or less in six of their ten games, having recorded 31 sacks already. Arizona has not seen too many top defenses. The Cards pour it on vs. weak defenses, but against very good ones, it's a different story. In the games vs. the top two they have played (Washington #4 and Carolina #8), Arizona scored the fewest points of the season (23 and 17). The Giants defense is better than both Washington and Carolina. While the offense gets all the press, the defense is underated in that it ranks 11th overall. The Giants are going to run as much as possible to extend drives, and keep the high-powered Zona offense off the field.The Giants are one of the top teams in time of possession, as they play defense for just an average of 26:52 a game. The Cards will not be running up and down the field here vs. the Giants, and their drives will take time. New York is 11-1 UNDER in their last twelve road games played to a total over 45. I like this one to go UNDER the total. Game: San Francisco at Dallas (Sunday 11/23 1:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Tony Romo is back and so are the Cowboys. Or so the story goes. When Romo went down, Dallas lost two of three, scoring 14 ppg in the process. Upon his return they won. But, the Cowboys continued to struggle offensively, scoring 14 again. The fact remains that after their 5-1 start in which they averaged 29.4 ppg, the Cowboys have averaged just 15.8 per game while allowing 23.6. It's not yet clear to me that Dallas is out of the woods, even with Romo back. Without Felix Jones who is done for the season, and with TO completely stalled, this Dallas offense has looked more mediocre than great. The Boys are just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. San Francisco's offense has produced more points per game on the season than Dallas. They should be able to score against this Cowboys defense - at least enough to keep this game close. This is just too many points to lay for a team with this many question marks. Game: Oakland at Denver (Sunday 11/23 4:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Oakland +9 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) Denver is laying near double-digits? Hmmmm. Denver is 6-4 but this is not a 6-4 team. They were handed a win by Ed Hoculi in September and recorded close wins vs. New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Cleveland - all three of which could have easily been losses. They have given up 30+ points four times already and on the season and have scored fewer points (248) than they have allowed (271). I'm not saying Denver is a horrible team. They are simply a .500 team that has gotten a bit lucky, and laying this many points in a division game is out of whack. Their upset win vs. Atlanta last week sets this game up nicely as it gives Broncos-backers reason to believe. And, no one wants to be on Oakland right now. The Raiders certainly have their issues, but they have usually played Denver close, even at Mile High, even when the talent difference is bigger than it is this year. In the earlier meeting, Denver won in a blowout which means the Broncos could be a little overconfident and Oakland will be motivated to atone. While they lost, I was impressed by Oakland's showing vs. Miami last week. I think their offense will have success against this porous Denver defense. Denver has lost 67% of their home games ATS the past decade vs. losing teams and dating back to last year, they are 3-12 ATS as a favorite. I like Oakland to keep this close. Game: Washington at Seattle (Sunday 11/23 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Seattle +3.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6) What has happened to the Skins? They opened the season looking great, winning four of their first five with the only loss coming to the Giants. Since then they have gone just 2-3 however with wins coming over Cleveland and Detroit. In their last five games they have averaged just 14.4 points per game. Last week, despite Clinton Portis playing, they managed just 10 points against a weak Dallas defense. I was on Seattle last week, assuming with Hasselbeck, Branch and Engram back, the Seattle offense would again be clicking. That prediction was at least a week too early but this could be the week for the Seahawks. I do expect the offense to perform better here. The Skins are just 2-10 ATS the past three seasons vs. losing teams. In their last 15 games as a road favorite of a field goal or more, they are just 3-12 ATS. I just don't think a team that is struggling offensively as much as Washington should be favored on the road and I'll back the home dog here. Game: Carolina at Atlanta (Sunday 11/23 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Atlanta -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Game: Indianapolis at San Diego (Sunday 11/23 8:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 49.5 -110 This total reflects reputation and perception more than current reality. When you think of Indianapolis and San Diego, you think of offense. The Colts offense has been a machine over the last five years. They have not finished lower than 5th best in each of the past five years. The Chargers, after three straight years with a top 10 offense, slipped out last year. But this year is different! This year the Colts are in the bottom half of the league and the Chargers are ranked 14th in total offense. Totals in this range in the NFL are reserved for top offenses, not the perception of top offenses. The Chargers have had their moments but five of their last six games have gone UNDER. They have managed to score 20 or less in four of them, and just 15 ppg in their last two. The defense has also allowed only 15 ppg in the last two as well. The Colts have scored 24 or less in seven of their ten games. Last year they scored 24 or more in 10 games, a mark they can't achieve this year even with six games remaining. This total is way too high, and isn't based on what these teams are doing this year. I'll back the UNDER. Results: 6-3 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-November-17-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-15-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-13-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-10-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-07-2008 |
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