Free Nfl Weekly Game Picks - November 19, 2009
We kick off week 11 with a pick in the Thursday night game between Miami and Carolina...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Miami at Carolina (Thursday 11/19 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Miami +3.5 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
The Dolphins took a big hit this week as they placed Ronnie Brown on the IR. He's done for the season and the Fins one of their most potent weapons. Many will point towards that as the demise of the wildcat offense with his departure. That may have been the case with Chad Pennington at QB who can't throw the ball downfield. With Pennington at the helm, the Dolphins passing attack averaged just 5.5 yards a pass attempt. Those numbers have grown under Chad Henne, and I expect the Dolphins to be effective with Ricky Williams running the ball. Williams was generating almost 1 yard per carry more than Brown, and there is now a bigger role for another talented back in Pat White, who can throw the ball as well. In the end, this will cause the Miami offense to adjust, but it won't completely break. Most of the pieces, including the schemes, are still there. This line appears to be an overreaction to the loss of one cog. After a terrible start to the season, the Panthers have looked good. Jake Delhomme has not thrown an INT in three games, but he is always on the brink of a disasterous game. While Carolina has won three of their last five games, the reality remains that one win was vs. Tampa Bay and they lost during that run to lowly Buffalo. The Carolina offense has turned to the running game, and it has worked. But the Dolphins are a bigtime run defense, allowing less than 3.75 yards a carry, and that has not worked out well for Carolina. The last eight times the Panthers have played a run-stop unit that keeps foes under 3.75 yards a carry, they have gone 0-8 ATS at home, losing by an average of nearly 17 points a game! Carolina still is a mediocre team and they really aren't as good as Miami. Teams rebound the first game after a key player goes down, as the other players feel a need to step up and they leave it all out there. I like the Dolphins to unite and likely get the win here.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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NFL-Football-Picks-November-12-2009
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NFL-Football-Picks-November-06-2009
The Patriots are getting a lot of pump off of their dismantling of Tennessee and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 94-7. The problem here is that those teams were winless when they met them, and still ...
