We had our biggest NFL weekend yet in week 10 as we went 5-1 on the picks and 16-3 on a unit basis. If you bet $100 per unit you made $1,270 last weekend alone. For the regular season now we are 34-17 (67%) and 95-42 (69%) on a unit basis.  Haven't ever been sitting this pretty ten weeks in. Glad you are on board for our best NFL season ever!

This Sunday we have six picks include two 5-unit plays and a 4-unit play.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Football Office Pool Picks
Wunderdog is now offering complimentary NFL pool picks. These are picks straight-up (not against the spread) for use in your office pool. Each game is picked with an assigned value.

NFL Computer Predictions
My computer prwhich predict every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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NFL: RISE AND SHINE (by Mr.East)

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Minnesota at Miami (Sunday 11/19 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota +3.5

Miami has done very well the past two weeks. They went into Chicago and smacked down the undefeated Bears 31-13 as a 13.5 point dog. Huge win (but more on that later). Then they follow that up with a 13-10 win vs. Kansas City. The public is officially backing the Dolphins at this point. Nevermind that they are just 2-6 ATS on the season. Nevermind that prior to those two surprise wins, the Fins lost at home by 10 points to the Packers and to the Jets the week before that. Nevermind they lost six of their first seven. Is Miami all of a sudden that much better? We don't think so. Minnesota is the opposite. They were 4-2 SU and 4-1 ATS coming out of week seven. They looked good. Then they laid a huge egg against New England on Monday night, followed up by consecutive upset losses to San Francisco and Green Bay. The public can't get behind this team right now. But we can. Tom Brady shredded this Vikings defense. But outside of that game, no one has! But that's the game everyone remembers. Minny's defense is ranked 5th best in the league. Outside of the New England game, Minny has not allowed more than 23 points. And if it not for a -6 turnover ratio the past three games, they might be 6-3 at this point instead of 4-5. They have held seven of nine opponents to under 20 points. Miami's offense is just plain bad. They are ranked 25th in the league in scoring. We don't see the Fins scoring a lot here as they have reached 20 points just two times this year. One of those was that Chicago game but note that they were the recipient of 6 Bears turnovers in that one! In what should be a low scoring game here, note that Miami is 1-9 ATS the past three seasons in games with posted total of 35 or less. Minnesota is the better overall team here that happens to be out of the graces of the public. But we know better and we look for them to bounce back in this one against an inferior opponent.

We're not sure anyone would of thought New England coming off a loss would lose at home in their next game as a double digit favorite. It is just as likely that not many would think the Packers would be sitting at 4-5 after a 1-4 start either. We don't hear too much about Favre retiring these days. The fact is his numbers match or exceed Brady's. He has two fewer interceptions and has thrown for about 250 more yards. The Packers, after getting shutout by the Bears on opening Sunday, have the 7th ranked offense in the league. It is a bit suspicious that new England has taken on Vinny Testaverde all of a sudden. Is there something ailing Brady that the Pats don't want to talk about? The offense has been very inefficient, and inconsistent lately. They rushed for over 100 yds. versus the Jets in the first quarter last week and 0 in the second. They had success running but suddenly decided to win a close game in the air, as they rushed the ball just 11 times in the entire second half. If you look at the New England injury report there are 22 names on it! That may have something to do with it. The Packers quietly have the 7th best rushing defense in the NFL, and at home may be able to slow the Pats down enough to make New Emgland win it in the air, which lately seems to play away from their strength. It would have been easy to take New England last week off a loss, and for most (close to 70%), easier to take them aagain this week. Something just isn't right, and we will go with the improved Pack getting a bundle at home.

It never ceases to amaze me how linesmakers and the public continue to fail to adjust to reality. Carolina, the preseason darling, can do no wrong in their minds. What we see, however, is a very average team laying a touchdown to an equivalent opponent. The Panthers are 5-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. They have given up more points than they have scored this year. They're ranked 24th in the league in offense and 17th in defense. They are coming off a 14 point win vs. Tampa Bay on Monday night so they are feeling pretty good about themselves, which works in our favor here. But, they really are no better than the team they are facing on Sunday. St. Louis' defense is definitely suspect, ranked 26th. But their offense is 7th. They should be able to keep up with a weak Carolina offense. St. Louis' defense has looked bad against a few opponents this year but against bad offenses like Carolina's, they have done OK. They gave up 10 to Denver, 20 to San Francisco, 14 to Arizona. The teams that have scored over 20 on them all have offenses that are ranked higher than Carolina's (Detroit, Seattle, San Diego, KC). The point here is that these teams are about equal and we are getting a touchdown on one of them. That's value. To top it off, the Rams need this more than does Carolina. St. Louis dropped a squeaker last week to Seattle, dropping them to 4-5. Another loss and they are in big trouble. We expect a top effort and a cover from the Rams. The icing on the cake? Carolina is 2-11 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the past three seasons. Rams here.

As underdog bettors, we rarely lay double digits. We did it a couple of weeks ago with our 5-unit play on Jacksonville and we have spotted another opportunity here. There have been some near misses for Tennessee this year. They lost to the Colts by 1 on the road in week six and last week had a 26-7 lead on Baltimore and couldn't hold on in another 1 point loss. There have also been some major blowouts, as they have lost to Jacksonville 37-7, Dallas 45-14, and San Diego 40-7. So which team shows up in Philly on Sunday? We think it's the team that gets blown out. Why do they compete in some games, and yet others don't even come close? Is it random? No way! The answer lies in the defense they go up against. Philly has the top ranked offense, but also have a defense rated #12 in total yards. If you look at Tennessee in its last 8 road games versus a top 12 defense or better you see they score just 9.8 ppg. That doesn't win many games. This year they managed just 7 points to a Jacksonville (defense rated #4). They scored 10 to a Miami defense rated #2. They got 7 vs a San Diego defense rated #8. The 24 points they scored? Two of the TD'S (14 pts), came on their last drive of the game. We see the top ranked offense, playing against the worst defense in the NFL. The average scores in their games when they are playing a defense in the top 12 or better on the road the past 2 years is 30-9! Philadelphia needs this game. They stand at 5-4 but after this 5 of last 6 are vs teams with winning records. This will not be a week off for Philly until they secure the business at hand. Philly blows out the Titans in this game.

Is Arizona favored here? What!?! This team is 1-8. After seeing them basically not even try last week, we are convinced they have packed it in. They were in a good spot last week (they usually perform well as home dog) and didn't show up. That says volumes to us. Why are they expected to win this game? Detroit is certainly not a team to fear. But, they are a lot better than Arizona. Detroit beat Atlanta two weeks ago. They fell last week to San Francisco but turnovers (season high 4, two of which led to SF points) were to blame. That loss sets this one up nicely as we really should be laying points with the Lions here. Detroit's offense is ranked 14th in the NFL. It's good. They can run the ball and John Kitna has thrown for more yards than all but 4 NFL quarterbacks! Against an Arizona defense that allows 25 ppg, Kitna to Roy Williams will eat them up from start to finish. Arizona won't be able to stop Detroit's running game either. The Cards have been torched this year for over 200 yards on the ground twice. On the road they are allowing 187 rushing yards per game. The bottom line? Arizona is ranked 28th in offense and 30th in defense! They have the league's worst running game, getting 71 yards per game. The players are not responding to Dennis Green and they appear to wish 2006 was over. Give us the better, more motivated team and 2.5 points any day.

This becomes the time of year where everyone begins to think about the Colts going undefeated. They have had lots of close calls this year, and again last week pulled out a 1 point win for the second time this season. Dallas has taken on a much more confident look with Romo at QB, and should be 3-0 since he took over, except for a very strange ending vs Washington. There are some interesting situations shaping up for this game. The first is the pointspread. We have an undefeated team that is in a virtual pick-em game vs a 5-4 team. The oddsmakers are saying Dallas can play with this team, and we agree wholeheartedly. Last year Indy hit this stage of the season having averaged 38.5 ppg in its last six. This year they have only managed to top 38 one time. The lack of a running game has slowed this team down a bit, but still they truly are an offensive force. However, if you can believe it, Dallas is outscoring the vaunted Colts offense (and they are even in yards gained)! Since Romo took over, Dallas is averaging 405 yards per game of offense - good for #1 in the entire league. The Colts are the worst team in the entire NFL against the run. This allows teams to keep the Colts offense off the field more than years' past, lowering Manning's scoring opportunities. They are allowing 160 per game on the ground, keeping not a single opponent under 100 (compare that to Dallas who has held all but two opponents to under 100). Dallas has scored the 3rd most points in the NFL at 28 ppg, so their offense will be on the field plenty. Dallas also has the #3 ranked defense in total yards in the league, so it will be the first time Indy is going to face a team that is top caliber on both sides of the ball. We don't want to sound like Romo is the second coming of Manning here, but these are numbers worth noting. They each are completeing 65.6% of their passes. Romo is at 8.8 yds per attempt, Manning only 7.9. Manning's rating is 104.5, Romo sits at 101.2. This is an offense under Bledsoe that got 6.9 yards per attempt. If you think Indy is the better team, consider that Dallas is winning by an average margin of 8.4 while Indy is winning by just 6.7. Parcells is 61% lifetime ATS as an underdog. Dallas has a lot more on the line here, and hunted is he who wears the crown, and at 9-0 everyone is gunning for you. Expect Dallas to be very energized and intense. If Indy doesn't match that energy, Dallas will win easily. If they do Dallas has enough talent on both sides of the ball to win as well. This should be a good game, and score one for America's team.