Nfl Betting Pick - November 18, 2007
We're off another winning week (our fifth winning week out of the last six) and now stand at 57% on the season. This Sunday we have four picks...
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Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Cleveland at Baltimore (Sunday 11/18 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +3
The Browns certainly are better than most thought they would be. Their offense is very good and they gave the Steelers a scare last week, building a big lead before succumbing to a great team. But hold on, let's not let the hype go too far. The Browns after all are still just 5-4 and their defense is allowing 29.3 points per game. They are ranked dead last in the NFL in yards and points allowed! They will be facing a superb defense ranked #5 in yards allowed. Baltimore's problem is, obviously, offense. They are at a low point after losing 21-7 to Cincinnati. That loss dropped them to under .500 and now the public is officially "off" this team. But remember our mantra - buy low sell high! The Ravens haven't had an offense for years but over those years, one thing held true - they were terrible on the road and decent at home. They are 40-26 ATS at home in the Billick era including 14-5 ATS coming off an upset loss! This year is no different. While 1-4 away from home, scoring just 12.6 points per game, they are 3-1 at home, scoring 18.7 per game. And they are allowing just 15 ppg at home. So, we have a team with the worst defense in the leauge, favored on the road against a tremendous defensive team that is 3-1 at home! Note that Baltimore is 13-3 ATS under Billick at home games vs. poor defenses (those allowing over 5.6 yards per play). Yes, Baltimore seems like a team that can't be backed. But, this is the time to back them. They will be very hungry for a critical division win - a win that can take them back to .500 or drop them to an unrecoverable 4-6. Take the Ravens and the points.
Game: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (Sunday 11/18 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 35.5 -110
Atlanta started the season 1-6 and two weeks later are back within striking distance in the Division. It's hard to believe, but is a telling-tale of a division lacking a good team. Much of the problem with the NFC South stems from injuries and lack of competent offenses that are good enough to sustain drives. The losing teams on Tampa Bay's schedule have seen all the games played in the 20s while Atlanta has managed to top the 20 mark themselves just once. So, nine games played with seven UNDERs. Tampa Bay has played six of nine UNDER, in thanks to an underachieving offense. They are 15th in yards gained, but ranked 21st (six spots lower) in points scored. They have an over-achieving defense that is ranked 6th in yards but two spots better in points allowed at #4. Atlanta's offense has also underachieved. They are 27th in yards gained, but are three spots worse (#30) in points scored. They are the same on defense, 16th in yards but two spots lower in points allowed at #14. The bottom line is that in four possible catergories, the DNA of these teams all make the UNDER more likely. The scoreboard has refelected that so far with 13 of 18 games going UNDER between them. Atlanta won last week as an underdog and in weeks 10-13 of the NFL season, teams off an upset road win are 78-39 (67%) to the UNDER in their next game. The past three seasons, Tampa Bay is 13-4 UNDER after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points and 14-5 UNDER following a win. Dating back to last season, Atlanta is 18-6 UNDER in all home games including 8-1 UNDER vs. division foes! Barring a defensive or special teams touchdown, we like this one to stay in the twenties or low thirties.
Get all of our Sunday and Monday night picks here.
Game: New Orleans at Houston (Sunday 11/18 1:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110
Get out the track shoes for this one right? New Orleans has their offense clicking, Houston is getting healthy with weapons returning on the offensive side. And even the Rams scorched the Saints defense for 37 last week. The OVER looks easy, right? Not so fast! The Saints are simply not the same team as last season, having managed just 20.9 ppg on the road. They surely will have to produce more than that to put this one OVER. Houston has a way of getting into scoring matches with good teams. But they play much tighter, lower scoring games against losing teams. Versus four winning opponents, Houston games this season have averaged 59.3 total points. But against sub-.500 teams, the total points scored in five games has averaged just 40. We think after last week, New Orleans' defense will have a chip on their shoulder and play much better. When a team is coming off a bye as a home favorite of -3 or less, the UNDER has hit at a rate of 33-6-1 in all games since the bye began. We also have a system that is live for this game that is 60%+ in over 20 years that points to the UNDER. We will ride the UNDER in this one.
Game: St. Louis at San Francisco (Sunday 11/18 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on San Francisco +3
Ok wait a minute here. St. Louis was just 0-8 and the talk was whether they'd win a game all season. They go out and get a win and suddenly they are favored on the road? Wow! Aren't they still 1-8? Perceptions change in an instant in the NFL and obviously such is the case with the Rams. Remember also, at the beginning of the year, everyone had San Fransisco as a possible playoff team. Things really do change fast. St. Louis has gotten healthier, and scoring 37 in their win over New Orleans seems impressive. But, we don't think the Rams all of a sudden have it figured out. New Orleans has some serious warts and St. Louis nearly gave that game back after building a huge lead. San Fransisco beat a healthy Rams team early in the year on the road. Mike Nolan is 4-1 in his career vs. the Rams, and although the Niners don't put much pressure on the QB, they have been able to get to Bulger. The Niners have recorded just 14 sacks on the season, but six came against Bulger in their win at St. Louis. The Rams will likely be without Issac Bruce, who caught eight balls for 145 yards agaisnt the Niners in the first meeting. This isn't exactly a Hall of Fame offense the Niners are facing. St. Louis has allowed 30ppg over their last six games and expect the Niners to move the ball much better against them than what we have seen in recent weeks. We look for the Niners to be the hungrier team this week, just like St. Louis was last week. Home teams off a road loss faicng and opponent off an upset win are 41-18 ATS the past five seasons. San Francisco looked bad vs. Seattle last week and the Rams upset a public-favorite team (New Orleans). The public is now overreacting to one game and we'll take advantage of that and back the lowly Niners. They are, after all, getting points at home vs. a 1-8 team.
Results: 1-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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