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Nfl Favorites - November 15, 2009Over the past week in all sports (NFL, CFB, NBA and NHL) we have gone 45-25 for +53 units. Here's to another great week upcoming... We took a hit on Thursday in the NFL as Jay Cutler again threw five picks. I have backed the Bears three times times this season and Cutler has thrown 5 picks in two of them. Ugh. I didn't like him in Denver and now I don't like him in Chicago either. In any case, we look to build on the 7-3 week nine performance with six Sunday picks including one in the big matchup between the Colts and Patriots. My over/under picks this season are hitting 59% (and 30-17 last year) and we have four more of those this week. As a reminder, last season we hit 63% (59-35) in the second half of the year and this season we are off to an equally good second-half start. Let's keep it going this week!  Today's NFL Football Picks: The Rams have won just three football games in their last 28 tries. For that they can primarily blame their offense which is amongst the worst in NFL history over that period. The Rams offense has accounted for seven touchdowns in eight games on the season, and they have one INT returned for a TD. They rank dead last in the NFL, scoring just one of those seven offensive TDs from inside the 10-yard line. Overall the Rams average less than 10 points per game. It is very rare to see a total set in a game at or around the 50-point mark with just one offensive team in the game. The Saints offense is certainly powerful, but to put this one over the total it is likely they will have to push the 40-point mark. The Rams have played in just seven games in the last three years where a game total exceeded 50 points, discounting week 17 when mostly reserves play. The Rams defense isn't great, but they have only allowed 40 points or more in a game six times in their last 66 games (9% of the time). If and when the Saints open a big lead, they will eventually turn to the running game to milk the clock, and they may even rest starters late in this one. Yes, the Saints have put up 30+ points in each of their last four games. But, under Sean Payton, they are a perfect 6-0 UNDER follwoing 3+ straight games scoring 25 or more. I like this one to go UNDER the total.Game: Buffalo at Tennessee (Sunday 11/15 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7) So much in the NFL is predicated on what happened in the previous week, and that has now taken hold of the Tennessee Titans. This is a team that started 0-6. But two wins vs. San Francisco and Jacksonville has vaulted this team into being a TD favorite? Buffalo is a team that has trouble with big offensive teams, or a team like Miami that runs the wildcat to perfection which is almost a version of a spread offense that is geared towards running not passing. Theys struggled against the No. 1 New Orleans offense, the No. 2 New England offense and the No. 8 Houston offense as well as Miami as mentioned above. But, the teams with mediocre offenses have not been a problem for Buffalo. The remaining four teams on their schedule thus far scored a combined 48 points against the Bills (12 per game). Tennessee fits that category as they are ranked in the bottom third of the league. The Titans’ defense, without Albert Haynesworht, allows nearly 30 ppg and the Bills will get on the board here enough to topple the big number. They have Trent Edwards back under center and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Buffalo has thrived over the years vs. losing teams as they are an amazing 26-9-1 ATS against a team with a losing record in their last 36 against them. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are 24-36 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. like Buffalo to hang close here.Game: Detroit at Minnesota (Sunday 11/15 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7) This has always been a big division rivalry game, regardless of the fates of the two teams coming in. Despite the fall of the Lions, they always seem to play the Vikings with passion. Last year these teams played to a 12-10 final here and the game in Detroit was 20-16. That was not an exception - it has been the rule in this series. Looking back over the last 12 meetings, just once did either team score over 28 points, and in those 12 meetings the total topped the 43-point mark just twice! The Vikings are not the type of team that sustains a big offensive performance as they have gone 21-8 to the UNDER after scoring 30 or more in their previous game, and they are also 26-12-1 to the UNDER off an ATS win. This game is always more defensive than it appears and history says this one goes UNDER the total. Detroit's offense is bad and getting worse. They are averaging just 16.6 ppg on the season and 10 per game their last three. They will be hard pressed to get more than 14 points in this game against a Vikings defense htat has handled weak offenses well this year. Minnesota has averaged just 14 points per game allowed vs. Cleveland, St. Louis and these Lions in their first meeting. If they do stay that low, it's a great sign for the UNDER as the Lions are 72-23 to the UNDER the last 95 times they scored two TDs or less in a game. Minnesota is 56-18 UNDER the last 74 times they have allowed 14 or less.Game: Dallas at Green Bay (Sunday 11/15 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Green Bay +3 (-120) (risk 4 to win 3.3) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6) Going all the way back to the 60's and the Ice Bowl, this has been a heated rivalry as these teams often met in the playoffs. Dallas has had the upper hand of late, but most of those were played in Dallas. This one is in Green Bay and it means a lot to Green Bay. At 4-4, a win vs. a loss here means a ton to them. The Packers lost in Tampa as a double-digit favorite last week, and teams that do that often come back with a vengeance the following week. The Packers are mostly considered to be an offensive team, but even after the 38-point debacle last week vs. Tampa, the Packers bring the No. 4 ranked defense (283 yards per game) back home to Lambeau Field. Dallas has run the ball very well, but they will be facing a Packer stop-unit that is ranked No. 2 in rushing yards allowed per carry at a stingy 3.47 per carry. The Cowboys’ offense which has scored over 30 points per game four times already has been stopped by good defenses, with the exception of the Giants which who proven that they haven't been as good defensively as their numbers indicate. Da Boys were held to 10 points at Denver, 21 vs. Carolina and 20 at Philadelphia - all teams that rank in the top 10. The Packers’ offense, meanwhile, has been consistent all season long as they have scored 21 or more in all eight of their games. With Dallas reeling off four straight wins, scoring in the stratosphere, America's Team is again getting the action and is facing an inflated line here. The Packers are home, need this game more, have a better defense, and an offense that has been consistent all season. I really like Green Bay here. I also like the UNDER. As mentioned, Green Bay's defense is much better than most think, ranked fourth in the league in yards allowed. And, Dallas has not scored a lot vs. good defenses, putting up an average of only 17 per game vs. Top 10 defenses. This will be an intense game given the rivarly and the importance and I think it goes UNDER.Game: New England at Indianapolis (Sunday 11/15 8:20 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Results: 3-3 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-November-12-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-November-09-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-November-06-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-October-30-2009 NFL-Football-Picks-October-23-2009 |
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