Pro Football Predictions - November 16, 2008

Late adds on Saturday: I have added two more plays on Chicago and Baltimore. Yes, it's a lot of games but if I see the value, I gotta play 'em myself. If you don't want to play that many, you are of course welcome to back down. When I see little value, I'll pass or play only a handful of games. By the same token, when I see a board laden with value, I'm playing 'em.

We started off week 11 on the right foot with a win on the Jets on Thursday night. We're hitting 61% on our NFL picks the past seven weeks with six winning weeks out of seven.

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (Sunday 11/16 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia -9 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

As much as this looks like a game the Eagles could no-show, their are 10 teams in the NFC right now with an equal or better record. There is no playing with this game because an unexpected loss, and the Eagles are probably done. They are arguably the best 5-4 team in the league right now and certainly capable of a double-digit win in this one. Injuries to key players and a few bad breaks hurt them early. Those players have now gotten healthy and will make this team even better. The Eagles have the 9th rated defense in the league, have recorded 28 sacks, and will certainly be coming at Fitzpatrick with all kinds of blitz packages. Fitz's four TD's to six INT's shows a pick-6 here is not out of the question. Donovan McNabb is having a big year and with Kevin Curtis back at WR, and a healthy Brian Westbrook, this offense is one of the toughest to stop. Cincinnati's pass rush has mustered just nine sacks all season. McNabb will have all the time he needs to pick apart a suspect secondary. This one has "UGLY" potential with a very good, underrated Eagles team needing a big win. The Eagles are 20-14 ATS as a road favorite under Andy Reid. I'll lay the points here as a see a monster blowout.

Denver continues to draw large totals despite the obvious fact that the offense that was scoring at will early on has faltered in five of the last six weeks. The average points put up in the first three weeks was 37.7 ppg. But in the last six, it has produced less than half of that - 18.3 ppg! Totals over the 50 mark should not go to teams with potential, but should rather be reserved for teams that are achieving that potential. Denver clearly is not. The Falcons are a vastly improved team and there is no doubt what they are going to do here. They have faced five teams that rank defensively 22nd or worse in the league. Against those teams, they averaged over 200 rushing yards. Think they'll be running the ball here? You bet - early and often. That should help them control the clock and keep the Denver offense to limited opportunities, shortening the game. Denver's defense has been bad this season and you can bet it got a lot of attention during the bye week. This sets up as a high valued UNDER play to an already inflated total.

The Baltimore Ravens have been painted as a defensive only team, that can't score. That is changing faster than the odds-makers want to admit. The Ravens have won four straight games, all by double digits, and the offense has produced 33.5 ppg during the four-game stretch. They have covered seven of their last nine, and this is just too many points here. They also catch the Giants in a very vulnerable spot.  The G-Men played a very tough Pittsburgh team three weeks ago, and followed that up with two very heated division rivalry games vs Dallas and Philadelphia. That is three straight weeks the Giants have had to play in highly emotional, physical games. The wear and tear on those games leaves them vulnerable to a surging Baltimore team - a non division opponent that won't capture their attention like the last two opponents did. The fact that New York won all three, and sits at the top of their division and the NFL power rankings makes it more likely they'll take a sigh of relief and possibly get caught here. Baltimore has the run stop unit to handle the physical Giants running attack. And, with an offense that has been scoring in bunches, I think the Ravens will hang around this one, and I wouldn't be shocked if they got the win here if the Giants relax a tad too much after their great three-game run.

The Colts are simply not close to the team they have been the last several seasons. They have already played four games in which they have scored less than 20 points. Compare that to last season in which they failed to reach 21 just once (not counting week 17 when no starters played). The Colts had a big game vs. Baltimore several weeks back, tallying 31 against a solid Ravens defense, and Colts fans were hopeful. Since then, they have managed to average just 18.8 ppg and that Baltimore game is looking more and more like a fluke. The Colts should not be laying nearly double-digits, especially with an average defense that doesn't get to the QB. Despite a 3-6 record, Houston has only been out of one game since week three and that was last week. Their embarrassing blowout loss in that game adds value here. The Texans have only been out of games vs. top defenses, fighting hard in every other game. This line reflects the good Colts team of prior years and not this year. And, even when Indy's offense was clicking, they didn't cover big spreads vs. poor defensive teams like Houston. The Colts are just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. teams that allow 24+ ppg. I will back Houston with the points in this one. I also like the UNDER. The Colts offensive prowess just isn't translating this season. They have played in just one of nine games that resulted in 50+ being scored. I think Indy struggles to score at will here and without that, this game should be lower than 50.

The last time Kansas City played in a game with a total of 50 or higher was Novemebr 27th, 2005. That's almost three years and 47 games ago! The Drew Brees factor and the public's love for high-scoring teams means the oddsmakers had to post this one very high to get balanced action. But we are gonna go with the facts instead. The Chiefs offense averages 16 ppg and I'm not sure the last time I saw a total with one team averaging under 17 a game. It takes two teams to help reach a total this high. Kansas City has actually played UNDER in the last five games they have played with a total of 50+. The Saints certainly have a superb offense, but the fact is they have not gotten out of the 20s in the majority of their games this season. The Chiefs had a rare big game last week passing for over 250 yards. Now everyone believes in Tyler Thigpen? Hmmm.  The last nine times KC has passed for 250+, they played UNDER in seven of the nine games following. By the same token, they allowed over 250 in the air last week and have played UNDER in five of the last seven that happened. We have an inflated total here and I'll back the UNDER.

The Bears and the Packers, heated division rivals, enter a big game for both in the NFC North. Chicago is tied with Minnesota for the lead at 5-4, while the Packers sit one game out at 4-5. The Packers come into this one just 2-5 against teams with winning records, which has to be a concern. The Packers lost last week despite having a turnover advantage. It was a similar story vs. Tennessee, where they put up almost 400 yards of offense against a top team, out-gained them, and lost. Against the Falcons at home, the Pack put up over 400 yards of offense at home, out-gained Atlanta and lost. The Packers are just not making they key plays, or they are allowing the game winning plays, and it is hard to back a team like that. The Bears meanwhile have been in every game they have played. Their four losses have come by a combined 15 points, losing by 7, 3, 3 and 2 points. None of the losses have been to a sub-.500 team. The Packers offense is ranked just 19th, and the defense 21st. They haven't been able to stop the run, and are having difficulty running the ball themselves. Even if Orton plays here, I have to give Green Bay has the QB advantage. But, It is going to be around the freezing mark in Green Bay Sunday, and that means the running game becomes vital. The Bears have the advantage, and I'll take the points here.

I was surprised to see this line as low as it is in this game. I think the books are giving the Vikings more credit than they deserve. The defense has played well, and ranks side-by-side to Tampa Bay in the top 10. The problem for the Vikings is in the other two aspects of the game. Their special teams and offense have given up big plays all season. It all but cost them a game at home last week vs Green Bay, and did cost them a game at home vs. Indianapolis and another vs. Chicago. The defense has been gulity of allowing big plays when their safeties get caught pinching up. So the defense, which is on par yards-wise with that of Tampa Bay, has allowed 7 more points a game than Tampa Bay! The Bucs allow just 10.8 ppg at home and will be a force against an average Minnesota offense. The Bucs have the defense to stop, or at least slow, AP and if they do, Minnesota is in trouble. Tampa Bay has out-scored their opponents 101-43 at home, and I like them laying a small number here.

This is a tricky spot for the Cardinals. They have dominated at times with a big offense, but they have also shown to be a flawed team on defense. And, this is not a team that has done well on the road. The Seahawks are getting healthy and last week came within a failed 2-point conversion 3,000 miles away in Miami from taking going to OT. The offense should get a boost with Hasselbeck back at QB and healthy again. He also has Bobby Engram and Deion Branch back to throw to. The fact that the Seahawks have a downfield threat with Hasselbeck in the game should open up even more room for Julius Jones, who is already getting 4.6 ypc. The Seahawks defense (22 sacks on the season) should be able to get enough pressure on Warner to make him speed things up. Warner can at times step out of trouble, but he isn't a threat to run. He has had some horrific games in his career when pressured. This is an Arizona team that is just 9-41 in their last 50 road games. Is this year different? Nah - they stand just 2-3 this year. The Seahawks are still playing hard, and should have a different look on offense this week. They are under the radar due to their record, but with key offensive pieces back, they should be much improved. I like them in this one as a live dog.

Results: 4-5

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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

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