darrell,

We had a great day yesterday going 4-1 on the picks and 14-3 on a unit basis. We hit our fourth straight 5-unit play as well as our 4-unit selection. It locked in our 8th winning week out of 10 in the regular season. Tonight a small play ont the total.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Football Office Pool Picks
Wunderdog is now offering complimentary NFL pool picks. These are picks straight-up (not against the spread) for use in your office pool. Each game is picked with an assigned value.

NFL Computer Predictions
My computer prwhich predict every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Tampa Bay at Carolina (Monday 11/13 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on UNDER 37

These two teams played to 50 points in week three. So why is this total set at 37? It almost seems like a trap. In that first game, Carolina scored a touchdown on the third offensive play of the game. Carolina jumped out to a 17-0 lead. Three second-half turnovers by the Panthers let Tampa back in it. I don't expect such a quick start again for Carolina or three turnovers by the Panthers. Without the help fo those three turnovers, Tampa's anemic offense would not have managed 24 points. In fact, they have not scored 24 in any other game this season. The closest they came was 23 at home vs. Philadelphia three weeks ago. And that was with the help of 4 Philly turnovers. If you take out these two games, in which they were helped by 7 opponent turnovers, the Bucs have averaged 9.2 points per game! In three road games this year they have scored 27 total points. Even with those other two games included, the Bucs are ranked second to last (just behind Oakland) in points per game. They are bottom 3 in yards per game and dead last in yards per play. Carolina is bottom third in the league in all three of those categories as well. They are averaging just 17.1 points per game. At home? 15.3! Their defense is not as stout as many predicted but again turnovers are to blame. They have turned the ball over 3+ times in three games so far this year. In those games, they allowed an average of 26.7 points per game. In the other five games they have held opponents to just 16.6 points per game! So, if this is a turnover-laden game, this probably goes over the total. If not, it should stay well under the total as Tampa will really struggle to score. We can't predict turnovers - it's not a science. Half of all turnovers, at least, are due to luck. All we can do is assume there will be an "average" number in the game. Carolina is averaging 1.6 per game and forcing 1.1 per game. Tampa is averaging 1.4 per game and forcing 1.1 per game. So, on average, we're looking at about 3 turnovers TOTAL or less in this game. If that happens, this game goes UNDER the total. What about Tampa's poor defense you say? Well, it is ranked 21st - not great but not terrible. And, Carolina will likely try to run the ball in this game against the Bucs defense that is allowing 134 per game on the ground. That type of play will eat up the clock. Evidence of this is the fact that the Panthers are 25-12 UNDER in the last 47 games they've played against poor rushing defenses that allow 130+ yards per game. Fox likes running the ball, especially in division contests. With him as the coach, Carolina is 11-3 UNDER at home in division games. And, the Gruden-led Buccanneers are 23-13 UNDER in road games. In the end, barring unforseen turnovers, we like this game to go UNDER the total.