darrell,

Last week we showed a profit - up 3.1 units. This of course assumes you played the picks based on unit recommendations as the bigger picks won and the smaller ones lost. If you played them flat, you went 50%. Playing based on unit recommendations is an important concept. Please remember to play 1% of your bankroll per unit.

This Sunday we have five selections including another 5-unit play (which are perfect thus far on the season). This week again will feature several plays that illicit an initial "are you nuts?" reaction - but those are the ones that win in the NFL :)

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit   $100 per unit players have made $7,881   $500 per unit players have made $39,405   $1000 per unit players have made $78,810   View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Football Office Pool Picks
Wunderdog is now offering complimentary NFL pool picks. These are picks straight-up (not against the spread) for use in your office pool. Each game is picked with an assigned value.

NFL Computer Predictions
My computer prwhich predict every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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Good luck to you...

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Cleveland at Atlanta (Sunday 11/12 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Cleveland +9

This is another one of those games that look like a complete mismatch, as Atlanta has a potent running game and Cleveland can't stop the run. If it were that simple, everyone would all be millionaires. While most people can't bring themselves to back the Browns, we love them in this spot. Cleveland has arguably played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL. They have played four 6-2 teams and three 4-4 teams, or 7 of 8 games versus teams at or over .500. It is easy to see why they are 2-6. Atlanta comes in off an inexcusable loss to the Lions, and on the year outscore opponents by just a total of 3 points. This Cleveland team has hung close to better offenses than Atlanta's as they lost to New Orelans and their #6 ranked offense by just 5, and to the #1 ranked SD offense on the road by just 7. They also played another 6-2 team to a 1 point game. The fact is this team has been competitive all year, and this is a very juicy line that the public has bought into. But we haven't.

There is nothing more motivating than getting your lunch handed to you as a professional player, something you do for a living, something you take great pride in. The humiliation sticks to you like a rack of ribs after a summer barbeque. Tennessee was undressed vs Jacksonville last week 37-7. It is a script we have come to know for this team, and many others, that get humbled the week before. The public hates to go near a team that gets smacked around on both sides of the ball but we do, and with good reason. The NFL is like the stock market, buy on the bad news, sell on the good news. Earlier this season, Tennessee was whacked by SD 40-7 came back and lost at Miami by 3 as a +10.5, easy cover. They got destroyed by Dallas 45-14 and came back as a +17 to Indianapolis and almost did the unthinkable losing by 1 point for another easy cover. It isn't just Tennessee, it is life, and pride of a professional player. The fact is every week in the NFL a team gets hammered the worst, no one backs them the following week, and they play 60 minutes of their best football. Every team this year that was a big loser the week before has been a big winner the next week. Nothing is 100%, but be certain, when this opportunity arises, the cash comes more often than it goes. Baltimore had a good showing last week but without a +3 turnover margin, they wouldn't have done what they did. And, the Ravens are winless against the spread the past two years on the road following an ATS win. Titans here.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a major dissapointment, to say the least. Who would have guessed they'd be sitting at 2-6 right now? Not many people. We think they have been under tremendous pressure the past few games, trying to dig out of a hole. They probably didn't want to admit it but they were in panic mode, realizing they may miss the playoffs. Well, they have pretty much sealed their fate. Now the pressure is off a bit. And remember, they were in a similar position last year when people wrote them off after week 5. They finished out the year on an 8-3 run. We're not saying they are playoff bound but we are saying this team is NOT as bad a 2-6 record would indicate. The oddsmakers agree, posting them as a 4.5 point favorite against a 6-2 opponent. That should tell you something. They lost last week thanks to six turnovers! And, they still only lost by 11 points. They've played well at home this year notching victories against Miami and Kansas City. They are 25-6 ATS the last 31 vs. teams with a winnning percentage of 75%+ and they are 8-1 ATS the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Steelers qualify for one of our strongest NFL systems that backs home favorites off a loss facing a team off a win. The Steelers must win this game if they have any remaining hope. We think they come in, play loose and get the win and cover.

This one will take some heart to play. Oakland? Yes. While your gut tells you "no way," history tells us to back the down-and-out Raiders. This is a perfect contrarian spot. Denver is off a big win in Pittsburgh. They have the #1 scoring defense and their offense has finally gotten on track (62 points the past two weeks). With the offense clicking, the public has no fear in backing Denver as a nearly double-digit road favorite. And, with Oakland looking horrible on Monday night, a game most everyone watched, they have no problem fading them as a big home dog. But, let's look beneath the covers. We're still not sold on Denver's defense being #1. They are ranked just 11th in yards allowed per game and 13th in yards per play. They are keeping teams out of the endzone but they are letting teams move the ball. Eventually, one of these teams is going to score more than you think. Heck, their "great" defense was exposed the past two weeks, allowing 54 points. Oakland will rebound after the embarrasing showing on Monday night. We saw it three weeks ago when they faced Arizona as a home underdog. They were coming off a terrible showing in Denver in which they got just 3 points in a nationally televised game. They went on to beat Arizona outright at home in that one. Denver is in a big letdown spot. They are off of two huge games against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. They have monster game on tap against co-division leader San Diego. The Denver players watched the Monday night game. We doubt they are taking Oakland very seriously. Oakland however will be up for this home division matchup. We know it feels all wrong - but we like Oakland to sneak away with the ATS win in this one. When a team seems so down and out that you could never back them in a million years, it's time to back them. This is why the public loses money and we'll go the opposite direction. Raiders here.

Sometimes when you see a team that has struggled, their output is much less than what you expected when the season began and you see them as a home dog of a TD, it makes sense and the logic fits the state of the teams. There are also times when you look at these numbers, and they truly are inconsistent with when they should occur. Arizona has been one of the best teams in the NFL as a home underdog, but picking the right spot to back the Cards is vitally important. Since 2000-01 they have been in the position of being a home dog of 7 or 7.5 just 8 times. Let's take a look at what we can gain by looking close at those situations. They are 6-2 ATS in these situations, winning half of them SU, and losing in OT in yet another. The two losses were to Superbowl winner New England on its way to a 17-2 season, and to the NYG on their way to a Superbowl game! They also took on 03-04 Superbowl loser Carolina 20-17, but got the cover. The footnote here is Arizona came in losers of 5 straight games! They also played Minnesota (9-6) as a +7.5. They came into the game having lost 7 straight games, and won outright. They took the 03-04 St. Louis Rams to OT before losing 27-30. That Rams team was 12-4! They beat a GB team as a +7 by the score of 20-13. That Packers team went to the Conference Finals. Our point isn't to compare games that have nothing to do with this game vs Dallas. The point is a 7 point line has not occurred in an Arizona game vs a team that is 4-4, like Dallas. We mentioned above it took Arizona teams losing 5 in a row, 7 in a row as well, but vs Superbowl caliber teams. This line is much higher than it should be, but looks right, because of Arizona's play this year in some high-profile games. It's not commensurate to when and where this line should occur. A little icing on the cake? Dallas is 6-20 ATS last 26 as a road favorite. Arizona is 31-14 ATS the last 45 at home after two straight losses and 16-5 ATS at home after having lost 6+ of their last eight. The public is still enamored with the "new" Dallas Cowboys with Tony Romo at the helm. Dallas lost last week as a favorite but many believe they should have won. They aren't holding that loss against them. We will take the line value, while the public gets snared into backing Dallas at about 65-70%.