Free Football Picks Handicapper - November 11, 2007
We hit with our big 5-unit play on Sunday and ended up 60% overall for the week.
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Philadelphia at Washington (Sunday 11/11 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia +3
This is the last call for Philadelphia as a loss virtually ends their postseason hopes. You can be sure they bring their "A" game to this one. The Eagles have lost five games, three of which were to teams with a combined record of 20-4. So don't sell out on this team just yet as the talent is there. Washington is having trouble finding the endzone, as they have managed just four offensive TDs in the last three weeks. Against the lowly Jets last week had to settle for five field goals. These teams are fairly even on the defensive side of the ball with Washington ranks #9 and Philly at #12. It is the offensive side where we see the advantage, as Philadelphia brings in a good offense (ranked #9), while Washington sits at a sub-par 20th. This is a spot where Coach Reid and the Eagles have historically excelled. The Eagles lost to Washington 20-12 early on and Coach Reid's teams have gone 26-9 ATS exacting revenge. The Eagles are also 25-11 ATS after allowing 400+ yards in their previous game and 20-8 ATS off a home loss. The Skins have been the worst divisional team in the NFC EAST when it comes time to get the money. They are 43-66 ATS inside the division over the past fifteen seasons. They are not exactly a friendly team to wager on as a favorite either, as they have gone 41-65 ATS as a favorite since '92. The dog has covered five of the last seven in this series and under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 21-11ATS as a road underdog of a touchdown or less. Philly needs to keep the season alive and we ride the team in need.
Game: Minnesota at Green Bay (Sunday 11/11 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +6
The Vikings come into Green Bay off a record-setting performance by Adrian Peterson who rushed for 296 yards against San Diego. We went big on the Vikings in that game and we like them again this week. The Packers look to keep their magic season going, and add another to the win column that already shows 7. The Vikings game starts, and ends, with running and stopping the run. They run it offensively better than any team in the NFL, and they own the #2 ranked rushing defense. It presents an interesting scenerio for this game as the Packers can't run on anyone (dead last producing 2.6 ypc). The running game took another blow last week as Ryan Grant left the game vs. the Chiefs with a concussion. Favre and the Packers are good this season. But not as good as their record indicates. They play close games for the most part, winning several at the end that could have been losses. Outside of the Giants game in week two, every game on their schedule has been decided late. Last week they won by 11 but trailed deep into the 4th quarter, and an INT for a TD made the score seem more distant than the game actually played. This is an intense divisional rivalry, and the records have proven in the past they have no bearing on the outcome. The underdog has covered in this series to the tune of 14-1-1 over the last 16! The last 10 games in this series have been decided by a total of 39 points, with only one game decided by more points than this line. Even that one was decided by just 7 points. The Vikings, now brimming with confidence, will feature a lot of Peterson. He appears to be that rare back that hits the hole fast, makes the first guy miss, and has breakaway speed. He's a legitimate threat to find his way into the endzone with each touch. It seems as teams stack against the run vs Minnesota he gets even better. The last four weeks he has had TD runs of 64, 46, 20, 67, 73 and 35 yards, so he is a real threat anywhere on the field. This is a lot of points for a divisional rivalry game, especially one that has been perhaps the most competitive of any (the last 10 games decided by an average of 3.9 points a game and no winning margin greater than 7). Our computerized matchup agrees that this line is too big. Green Bay is good but luck has been on their side and that won't continue forever. We will ride the Vikings to keep this one close.
Game: Atlanta at Carolina (Sunday 11/11 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 36.5 -110
Here we get a rare matchup of two really bad offenses. Carolina is ranked 25th in the league in yards gained and points scored. Atlanta is 27th and 30th in those categories, respectively. Neither has been able to do much about it. Carolina has tried three quarterbacks and in this game will rely on the 43-year old Vinny Testaverde. The last couple of games Carolina has put the ball in the endzone just once. Can you see Testaverde and this offense having a breakout high-scoring game? Neither do we. In fact, if Testaverde struggles, the Panthers may turn to rookie Matt Moore. The QB situation is such a mess that the team this week signed QB Drew Olson to their practice squad - a guy who has never played in an NFL game. Carolina's running game has been terrible to compliment the bad passing attack. DeShaun Foster has managed just one 100 yard game so far. Atlanta's offense has been worse as their running game has dissappeared and Joey Harrington has proved to be average at best. What's nice for the UNDER here is that both teams have decent defenses, ranked at or near the middle of the pack (Atlanta #18 and Carolina #15). The Panthers potentially have a superb defense as they are ranked #6 in the league in yards per play. Against the Falcons offense, they just might look great. Under John Fox, the Panthers are 13-3 UNDER at home in divisional games including a perfect 7-0 the past three seasons! They are also9-2 UNDER following a game in which the team scored under 10 points. Atlanta is 17-6 UNDER this season and last on the road including 7-0 UNDER on grass fields!
Game: Denver at Kansas City (Sunday 11/11 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Denver +3
Denver was absolutely abused last week vs. Detroit. How can we back them? Buy low - sell high! Now is the time to get on this seemingly unbackable team. Denver started 2-0, but has gone 1-5 since. They look like a bad team that can't get out of its own way. That isn't the entire story, but it does offer some line value in this game. Denver has had the roughest six weeks in the NFL in terms of schedule. They have faced Jacksonville (5-3), Indy (7-1), San Diego (4-4), Pittsburgh (6-2), Green Bay (7-1), and Detroit (6-2). The combined record of their opponents over that stretch? 35-13! So before you think this team is as awful as it may seem, reconsider. They have had three road games against teams that are 9-3 at home. The three losses of their opponents at home? They came to New England, a one point loss by Buffalo to Dallas, and Denver beat Buffalo by 1. So, knowing that, is it really a surpise that Denver struggled in those road games? They now get a look at an offense that is ranked 30th in the league and has trouble finding the endzone. The Cheifs can't run the ball, and will likely be missing their top running back in Larry Johnson due to injury. Denver has the 10th ranked offense, despite facing some of the best teams in the NFL (see above). The Broncos have had trouble stopping the run, but KC is without its big back, and can't sustain drives. Denver was completely out-classed last week, losing by 38. Once we get into the crux of the season (after week 4), teams that lose by 28+, come back strong, as they have been 39-13 ATS last 52! Under Mike Shanahan, this team bounces back after humiliating defeats. They are 10-2 ATS following a game in which they were out of it by halftime (trailing by two touchdowns or more at the half). Denver is a prideful team that is ready to stand up and fight back. We like the points and will ride the Broncos in this one.
Game: Chicago at Oakland (Sunday 11/11 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Oakland +3.5
This is a very different Bears team than we saw in the first half of last season. A team that was winning with defense, having held 9 of 12 teams under 20 points, has now allowed 20+ points in 8 of their last twelve 12. That defense which led the entire NFL over the first half of last season, is now ranked 27th! The running game is completely different (i.e. non-existent) without Thomas Jones as Cedric Benson is averaging just 3.1 ypc. And, Greise has shown a lot of the same qualities we saw from Grossman, namely too many bad decisions. The offense is averaging just 4.6ypp, ranking it better than only one NFL team (San Fransisco). Oakland certainly isn't an offensive power, but they stand on higher ground than the Bears at #22. The emergence of Justin Fargas at running back has given this offense an identity and a purpose - pound the rock. And defensively they are much better, especially against a team that can't run the ball. The Raiders have the #4 stop unit in the entire NFL against the pass and that could spell trouble for the mistake prone Bears offense. The Bears run defense is giving it up at over 4.5 yards per carry. Home underdogs playing a team that gives up 4.5+ ypc are 76-39 ATS 67%. We like Oakland, and think there is a good chance they get the outright win here against a team that has fallen hard and fast.
Results: 3-2
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