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Free Pro Football Picks - November 09, 2008We are red hot this season in the NFL. We followed up our 5-0 week eight with a 4-2 week nine. We've now won 10 out of 13 weeks (77%) including six winning weeks in a row. Now comes week ten and I love the board! I have six picks including my NFL Game of the Year on Green Bay.  Today's NFL Football Picks: The Packers have to be the best team in the NFL that isn't over the .500 mark, and they certainly have the Vikings number. The line is based heavily on the results from last week. The Vikings got two late turnovers in the red-zone to stave off the Texans, who outplayed them. The Packers torched the so-called best defense in the NFL for over 400 yards, 300+ in the air, and 100+ on the ground, on the road at Tennessee. The wrong team won that one. But, Tennessee gets the credit and the Packers are written off. Flip the results of last week (not hard to see Houston and Green Bay winning), and the Packers are favored by a field goal here. So the value is there on the surface. Dig deeper and it becomes more apparent. If Aaron Rodgers can put up over 300 yards on the Titans secondary, what will he do against Minnesota? The Packers have done what no other team has been able to do against the Vikings, and that is run behind their very good offensive line. They got 140 on the ground in the opener, and 120 in their last game last season. The Vikings have been walking on egg-shells when they even win a game, barely getting past winless Detroit 12-10 at home, needing a bunch of turnovers to get past new Orleans and Houston. The fact is, without some bounces of the ball, Minnesota loses all three of those games and sits at 1-7 on the season. The Packers are an excellent team that is underrated. They are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 division games and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games. They take care of the ball, and in turn, will take care of the Vikings easily here. Game: Baltimore at Houston (Sunday 11/09 1:00 PM Eastern) Houston saw their three-game winning streak snapped by Minnesota last week. But who do they have to blame? The Texans were in the red-zone twice late in the game only to turn the ball over. They made a good showing on the road, which speaks volumes for this team, since they are 1-10 in their last 11 road games. I faded them last week in part due to their poor road play. It's a completely different story when they are home, and this will be their fifth home game in their last six. The Texans are 11-3 in their last 14 at home. Sage Rosenfels will get the nod at QB, and his numbers are almost identical to Schaub's so no dropoff is expected. The Ravens are similar to Houston. They have a 3-10 road resume in their last 13. They have won only at San Francisco, Miami and Oakland over the last two years - not exactly a resume you want from a favored road team. They have all kinds of issues on defense now. Dawan Landry, Samari Rolle and Chris McCallister are all hurt. Houston's game is in the air, and they will score plenty here. This is a bad matchup for the now pourous Raven secondary, and I'll back the Texans at home where they are very tough. Game: New Orleans at Atlanta (Sunday 11/09 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 The public loves high-scoring teams and you can rest assured it juices the lines when they take the field. This one opened at 49 and is on the rise as the public lines up on what appears to be an easy OVER. Such lofty totals (50+) are usually reserved for two explosive offenses but I don't see that here. Since when is Atlanta expected to put up points like a pinball wizard in a gameroom? Yes, this team has been a pleasant surprise this season, but they still have a rookie QB. When is the last time Atlanta was featured in a game with a total posted higher than even 48? You have to go all the way back to November 17, 2002 - 95 games ago! These teams are possession offenses as they both control the ball for over 31 minutes per game. Third downs are not often made up of third-and-long, where they have to throw incompletions that stop the clock and elongate the game. That is where the fallacy of high-scoring teams sometimes occurs. Atlanta is going to run the ball on the Saints 4.34 rushing yards allowed per carry, and use the pass as a run just like the Saints - in ball control. The unsuccessful drives will use a lot of clock, but so will the successful ones. After getting in shootouts for their first five games (51.6 ppg), New Orleans has slowed down as their last three games have averaged 47.6 per game with two UNDERs. I like this game to go UNDER the posted total. Game: Buffalo at New England (Sunday 11/09 1:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Buffalo +4 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) It's funny how things change week-to-week in the NFL. After their win against the Chargers three weeks ago, there was talk about the Bills being Superbowl material at 5-1. But after two tough losses, fans are wondering if they will even make the playoffs. The Bills haven't changed - just the public image of them has. They are a better football team than the smoke-and-mirrors 5-3 Patriots. The Bills are better on both sides of the ball, and they have a better QB than the Patriots. Excuse my skepticism, but the Patriots' home wins against Denver, Kansas City and St. Louis don't impress me. The Pats blew out everyone last year. But this season, including games at home against the patsies mentioned above, New England has yet to win a game by double-digits! The other side of that coin is the Pats have been blown out themselves twice. So the margin for error with this team is very very slim, and their winning record very precarious. This Sunday they face a team that is better on both sides of the ball, and I think the wrong team is favored. Buffalo is in dire need of a win after dropping two straight. They are motivated to win for that reason, and because of New England's historic dominance. Coming off a home loss to a division rival, Dick Jauron is 12-2 ATS. He's also 22-7 ATS in November games. Take the Bills. Game: Carolina at Oakland (Sunday 11/09 4:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Oakland +9.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6) I'm not sure if their was ever an uglier display on an NFL field than what Oakland showed last week. They finished the game with 77 total yards of total offense. Defensively, Atlanta scored on its first four possessions, and basically took a knee the rest of the game. As a result, there isn't anyone that wants any part of this Oakland team right now. The public is hammering Carolina like they know the final score, and it's as if the books are giving out free money for the approaching Holiday season. Guess what folks. They aren't that dumb! I love the Raiders here! Can you imagine the week the Oakland players and staff has had? They were disgraced - plain and simple. They had NOTHING good to point to last week. Al Davis went as far as to fire the guy he just paid $8M to in the offseason (DeAngelo Hall). The TV talking heads point to that and say "This team is in disarray. Carolina's gonna kill them." I view it differently. This team has had enough (at least for one week). Players will be playing for their jobs. In addition, they will be playing for themselves. Every professional athlete has pride, and rest assured the Raiders will bring it for this one. Carolina can't possibly be up for this game. Home teams coming off a shutout invariably play better the next game out. Carolina is just 1-2 on the road, scoring 13 ppg this season. I know, it's hard to bring yourself to back the Raiders after what they have done the past couple of weeks. But, that's exactly why this is a top-play this week. Game: Kansas City at San Diego (Sunday 11/09 4:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 Kansas City has kept two games in which they were huge underdogs very close. They put up 51 points in those two games. Now there are suddently believers in this Chiefs offense. I'm not buying Tyler Thigpen as a viable NFL QB yet. He is completing just 51% of his passes and has a QB rating of 67.6. When totals start reaching the upper 40s, you need two teams that can score. But, Kansas City needs a bad mistake-prone offense to score, as proven with five games out of eight scoring 14 points or less. San Diego is coming back from their game in London, and even though they had their bye, I'm not expecting them to be in peak form here. Last year after returning from Europe, with both teams having byes, the Miami offense struggled scoring 10 and the Giants struggled scoring 20 (both under their season averages). The Chargers have gone OVER the total just once in their last five games. I don't see this game getting the juices flowing for the San Diego players, especially with Pittsburgh up next. I expect a workman's like effort: win and move on. From all of this, I expect a lower scoring game than the posted total indicates. Results: 2-4 NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-November-13-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-November-10-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-31-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-24-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-October-17-2008 |
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