Football Handicapping Services - November 08, 2009
The NFL season has not played out as expected thus far. I am definitely not used to being behind at this point. But, I fully expect to rebound and deliver a positive second-half to the season. Last season my NFL picks went 59-35 (63%) in the second half. As you will see this week, I'm going to be mixing in a lot more totals (which I normally play more of in the second half anyway). This year my totals picks are hitting 57% thus far and last year my totals picks went 30-17 (64%). Nine Sunday picks for you this week...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Miami at New England (Sunday 11/08 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Miami +10.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Patriots are getting a lot of pump off of their dismantling of Tennessee and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 94-7. The problem here is that those teams were winless when they met them, and still have combined for one win on the season. The psychology that plays in the minds of the oddsmakers and betting public is that New England is back in 2007 form. Let's not forget this team has lost two games already, and should have recorded a third loss vs. Buffalo if not for a miracle finish. Also, this is not the 1-15 Miami team of 2007 either it is a playoff team from a year ago with a dynamic running attack. Remember, despite the fact that the Titans were murdered, they piled up 193 yards on the ground vs. the Patriots. New England's Achilles heel is stopping the run and they will face one of the NFL's top rushing teams in the Dolphins. The Pats are allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and it is no secret that the Dolphins are going to run, shorten the game and keep the Patriots’ offense off the field for long spurts as New England has yet to prove they can stop a competent running attack. The Dolphins’ ball-control offense makes them a powerful dog to big numbers on the road as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven as a dog on the road of 10.5 or more. The Pats are getting eaten alive by big numbers, having now gone 0-8 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite of 10.5 or more. Miami has scored 30+ points now in four straight games so they can hang. I'll take the overlay here and go with Miami.
Game: Houston at Indianapolis (Sunday 11/08 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Texans were having all kinds of problems stopping the run early in the season as it looked like yet another .500 season was in order. But, they have really stepped it up against some successful backs as they have now faced Gore, Benson and Lynch. That trio of backs combined for a total of just 119 yards against the Houston defense - less than 40 yards per contest. Those defensive adjustments and improvements have led the Texans into four of their last five games playing UNDER the total. Last week on the road, the 49ers held the Colts without a TD until the fourth quarter and just one for the game, despite Peyton Manning again throwing for over 300 yards. With all the Manning hype, what has been going unnoticed with the Colts is just how well their defense is playing as they have limited six of their seven opponents to 17 points or less. That also includes 12 points or less in four of them! Houston's offense hasn't translated on the road as they have played six of their last seven to the UNDER. These teams are taking on a different look than in the past, so UNDER gets the call here.
Game: Arizona at Chicago (Sunday 11/08 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Arizona +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Cardinals were a difficult team to beat at home a year ago on their way to the Super Bowl, but they struggled on the road. This year they have reversed their fortunes and own a 3-0 mark on the road. The Bears have yet to lose at home this season also at 3-0, so something has to give here. Arizona was soundly embarrassed last week, losing by 13 points as a double-digit favorite. As a result, I expect a motivated and focused effort from them this week. The Arizona defense has stepped-up this season. The key has been their ability to limit opposing running backs to 96 yards per game. They defense is often setting up third and long, and they have done a great job as they are allowing just a 32% conversion rate on third down, which is good for third in the entire NFL. The Bears’ defense is rated No. 11, but over the last four weeks they own wins over Detroit and Cleveland while losing to Cincinnati and Atlanta - allowing a combined 66 points in the process. Without Brian Urlacher, the Bears are yielding 40% on third down, and have struggled vs. good offenses since their big win over Pittsburgh in week two. The Cards seem to be getting up for games vs. the better teams and as an underdog this season they stand at 3-0 ATS running their streak to 6-0 ATS when posted as a dog. They have been at their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 16-7 ATS in their last 23 following a loss. The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against a winning team and after a straight up win, they are a dismal 7-18-2 ATS. Chicago needed five Cleveland turnovers last week to turn in a convincing win. If you look at the five games they've played outside of the cupcakes in Detroit and Cleveland, Chicago is getting outscored on average 16-24. I'm going with Arizona in this one.
Game: Green Bay at Tampa Bay (Sunday 11/08 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 43.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Battle of the Bays used to be a heated divisional rivalry, but the Bucs after realignment, these teams don't meet as often. The Bucs have become much maligned as they carry a shrinking payroll and an 0-7 record into this one. The Packers’ defense has come up huge against the lesser offenses of the NFL and they will certainly face one here today. Tampa Bay’s offense has topped the 14-point mark just once in their last five games and it appears to be regressing, not improving. The Packers have had their way with this type of offense as they allowed a combined 3 points to the No. 25 ranked offense of the Lions and No. 31 ranked Browns. The Bucs come in at No. 28 and likely will struggle to move the ball against the Packers defense. Green Bay may not put four quarters into this game, limiting their scoring opportunities as they have a big rivalry showdown with Dallas next week in Green Bay. The Bucs inability to score vs. winning teams has led to the UNDER cashing in eight of their last ten against teams with a winning record. Also, four of the last five between these two clubs played in Tampa has gone by the way of the UNDER. I like this one to go UNDER as well.
Game: Baltimore at Cincinnati (Sunday 11/08 1:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 44 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Ravens’ offense has been better than their defense in most games this season, but signs of change are in the air. Last week vs. Denver the box score says 30 points, but they gained less than 300 yards and had a couple of late scores that padded the total. In their game against the Vikings two weeks ago, their offense was kept to 10 points after three quarters before the Vikings relaxed leading by 17 with 10 minutes to play. The Ravens rallied for 21 in the fourth. Then three weeks ago, the team that gave the Ravens’ offense it’s most difficult game were these same Cincinnati Bengals, holding them to just 14 points - their lowest output of the season. The Ravens had just 12 first downs in that one and an offensive total of just 257 yards. The Bengals’ defense may be in the middle of the pack in yards allowed, but they are amongst the elite when it comes to keeping teams out of the end zone as they rank No. 6 in points allowed where it counts the most. The Ravens still rely on their defense, and are now 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight as a favorite and 10-4-2 as a road favorite in their last 16. The Bengals are turning up the "D" at home, posting a 10-4-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 15 home contests. Joe Flacco is playing good, but Marvin Lewis specializes in finding ways to control opposing quarterbacks. Under Lewis, the Bengals are 22-11 UNDER vs. teams that complete 61%+ of their passes, and 12-3 UNDER vs. teamst hat average 235+ passing yards per game. The UNDER is the play here.
Game: Carolina at New Orleans (Sunday 11/08 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 51.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Saints have been looking like a team that has the Super Bowl in their sights as they have been unstoppable on offense and have a defense that is underrated. The Saints come into this one a perfect 7-0 on the season. Carolina, after a 0-3 start, have rebounded by winning three of their last four games behind an improving defense. After getting torched for an average of 33 ppg in their first two games, the Panthers have shut the door on opponents, having kept their last five opponents to 21 or fewer points. One of those teams that failed to produce more than 21 points was the Dallas Cowboys’ offense that averages just 17 yards a game less than the Saints. The one thing that the Panthers do when they are playing well is go to the running game, which is churning out nearly 150 yards per game at 4.74 yards per carry. The weak link to the Saints’ defense is a rushing defense that is allowing 4.45 yards per carry. I look for Carolina to come out running the ball a lot to shorten the game, with the goal of having a shot in the fourth quarter. With Delhomme having the year he's having, it's really the only logical recipe for John Fox. The Saints’ offense isn't quite as proficient when playing on a short week as they are 5-1 to the UNDER after playing on Monday night. This total is the highest of the week, juiced by the public's infatuation with sexy high-scoring offenses like the Saints. It's time for some reversion back to lower-scoring games for them and I like this one to go UNDER the total.
Game: Detroit at Seattle (Sunday 11/08 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 43 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Lions are a limited team to begin with and have few offensive weapons. The ones they do have are all battling injuries and they just don't have the depth to overcome any of it. This is why they are averaging just 16.1 points per game on the season. The last two weeks their offense has been especially bad, having managed just 10 points - scoring all those 10 vs. a St. Louis Rams’ defense that is only equipped to stop the weakest of offenses. They now face a Seattle defense that, while overmatched against the likes of Dallas, Arizona and Indianapolis (allowing 33 ppg in the three), are very tough against the weaker and less versatile offenses. They own a pair of shutouts over Jacksonville and St. Louis, completely dominating those teams. The Seattle offense has not been dominating anyone, having topped the 23-point mark in just two of their last 16 games. Looking at a total here at this level is definitely set too high. The Lions are likely to be shutdown offensively, and the Seahawks just haven't shown the ability to get out of the low 20s against anyone. As an NFL head coach, Jim Mora Jr. is 22-9 to the UNDER as a favorite. This one goes UNDER the total.
Game: San Diego at New York Giants (Sunday 11/08 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
New York's secondary has been picked apart for 38 points per game over their last three games and suddenly a team that looked like a Super Bowl contender has slipped to third in their own division. Despite the recent lapses, the Giants remain one of the top defensive teams in the league. Regardless what has happened recently, this Giants defense is still a league-best 31% conversion rate on third downs by their opponents. I would expect them to come out focused and angry for this one. They have a bye coming after this and simply can't afford another poor game going into the two week break. The Chargers’ running game has been grounded all season as Sproles and Tomlinson are finding no room to operate. San Diego is not the explosive team they once were as they have become a one-dimensional team and that should help the Giants defense. What has changed for the Chargers is that the defense is much better and currently ranks No. 12 in the league. Their biggest weakness is their rush defense so expect alot of Jacobs and Bradshaw which will eat up clock. And, the Giants have gone UNDER the total 67% of the time in their last 46 games vs. teams that allow 130+ rushing yards per game. In addition, the G-Men under Tom Coughlin are 26-16 UNDER following a game that went OVER. How good have the Giants been after getting burned bad defensively? They have come back in their next game after allowing 30+ to play 10-1-1 to the UNDER! That includes their recent debacle vs. New Orleans. Under Coughlin, they are 9-1 UNDER at home after a game in which they were torched for 175+ yards on the ground. In other words, Coughlin will have this defense ready to go. I like this one to go UNDER the total as the oddsmakers are reacting the way the public will see this one and this is set too high.
Game: Dallas at Philadelphia (Sunday 11/08 8:20 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It is amazing how quickly things have changed in the NFC East. It looked like the Giants at 5-0 were going to run away with the division, with both Dallas and Philadelphia trying to find themselves. It is now the Giants that looking up at both the Eagles and Cowboys. This all-of-a-sudden becomes a pivotal game for control of the division. The Cowboys’ offense has found some traction, but when you look closer, they continue to struggle against superb defenses. Outside of the Giants game, who has suddenly shown a lot of holes, Dallas has scored just 10 vs. Denver and 21 vs. Carolina - the other top 10 defenses they have seen. The Eagles have in turn held six of seven opponents to 17 points or less. Philly has not been a strong OVER play after scoring 30+ as they are 20-8 to the UNDER after a big offensive output. Dallas is 16-2 UNDER in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a good passing defense that allows under 5.8 passing yards/att. With so much on the line here, this one should take on playoff intensity, especially under the lights on Sunday Night. I like this one to be a physical division-rivalry game, with high-stake playoffs intensity and I like it to go UNDER the high total.
Results: 7-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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