We had a great week 8 Sunday. We hit all three picks including the first two five-unit plays of the year. We lost on Monday with Minnesota but overall ended up 3-1 and 13-4 on a unit-basis. Overall we are 25-12 through the first eight weeks of the regular season.

Seven picks on Sunday including another 5-unit play that I really love.

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	UNITS
NFL	25-12 last 37 picks	68%	+13
NBA	5-0 Season-to-Date	100%	+5
CFB	5-2 last 7 picks	71%	+3
NHL	10-13 last 23 picks	43%	(3)
CBB	174-128 last season	58%	+46
TOTAL			+64

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Tennessee at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/05 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Jacksonville -9.5

Tennessee has done a nice job in their last two games, keeping the oddsmakers grounded from making Jacksonville a completely prohibitive favorite here. After week five, Tennessee was at or near the bottom of almost everyone's power ratings. Then they nearly beat Indianapolis as an 18 point underdog. They go to upset Washington as an 11 point dog and beat Houston last week. A couple of things have happened. Vince Young is widely popular, so a couple wins make his presence felt, and in the public's eye, this is now a team that has vastly improved. But I am not sold. The other side of the ledger shows a Jacksonville team perhaps a bit less than what they were projected to be. A dissapointment in the eyes of bettors. A look inside, however, will show what appears to be, isn't at all. It's why we like this game so much. Tennessee is coming off a win versus Houston, a game in which they were completely outplayed, by another inferior team. Houston ran up 447 yards and held Tennessee to just 198 with their #28th ranked defense! A 40 yard fumble return, coupled with a 53 yard punt return spelled disaster for Houston, and makes Tennessee look like much more than they are. They beat Washington, one of the top defenses in football last year, but again this year the Skins rank just #26. So the Tennessee offense behind Young, appears to be on the move with 53 points in the last two games, even though defense and special teams scored 14 of them. Young has completed just 48% of his passes, and has an average of just 5.62 yds/attempt. Houston had a 26-10 first down advantage vs Tennessee. Let's go even deeper. They have had four games versus soft defenses: HOU #28, WASH #26, NYJ #29, and IND #20. They managed 82 pts. in those 4 games, yet on the season they rank dead last in time of possession 26:43 minutes a game! They have played three defenses among the caliber of Jacksonville, and were outscored 98-31! Jacksonville has had so many injuries this year, they have fallen from the public eye. Their week 7 loss 7-27 loss to Houston was a killer for them in the eyes of bettors. People are gunshy about them as a big favorite. But they have gotten healthier, and Garrard has outperformed Leftwich at the QB position. Leftwich managed to move the team to a tune of 6.71 yards/attempt in the air, while Garrard has managed 7.52! Tennessee gives up 66% TD'S in the redzone, not a comfortable place for a team that has lost field position to superior defensive teams. All in all this is a perfect setup for us. Tennessee is vastly overrated right now and Jacksonville is underrated. The Jags can't take a breather here, as Tennessee, after 2 wins and a scare of INDY who took the day off vs Tennessee, has sent the warning. When a team brings it at home, versus a much weaker opponent, the result is usually along the lines of SD 40 Tenn 7, or Dallas 45 Tenn 14. We look for a very lopsided game here. One last factor. Projected gametime temperature in Jacksonville 70 degrees. There will be wind, about 15 MPH, and gusts to 27 MPH, that is not condusive for a team that gets behind early to throw downfield, without one coming back the other way! Love this game all the way around.

We were on the Cowboys big last week with one of our five-unit plays. The public was all over Carolina, doubting whether the Cowboys, off a humilating loss the Giants, and with a new quarterback, could do it. Well, very few are doubting Tony Romo and the Boys now. But the pendulum has swung, as it often does in the NFL, too far the other way. Over 80% of this week's bets on this game are coming in on the Cowboys as everyone was "wowed" by Romo last week and their impressive 35-14 win over the Panthers - a team that most people viewed as elite. Well, that pick last week was partly about the teams' relative strengths but partly about situations. It was a very important game for Dallas and there was no doubt they would show up for it after dropping to 3-3 and coming off an embarrassing loss. Carolina was a bit overrated as I stated last week in that they had actually allowed more points than they had scored going into that game. Now everyone is on the Dallas bandwagon as everyone saw Romo play great on national TV last week. And they are down on the Skins who are just 2-5 on the season and off a 36-22 drubbing at the hands of the Colts. But it is nowthe Skins that cannot afford to lose. If they have any playoff aspirations left, no matter how bleak, they must win this important divisional game. Dropping to 2-6 officially kills their season. It's very simple. They must come out fighting and leave it all on the field this Sunday. With Clinton Portis in, I have a lot of faith in this Washington offense. After returning in game 3 this season, the Redskins have scored over 21 points in four of five games. They put up 31 on Houston and 31 on Jacksonville. I expect somewhat of a letdown by the Cowboys who were so up for last week's game. They won't be as up for this one and won't match the intensity of the Skins. They won last week's game in such convincing fashion that they are now beleiving a bit of the hype themselves ("With Romo, we are all set!"). Home underdogs vs. an opponent off a big upset road win come through very well in the NFL for this reason. This is not a statstical play. Dallas is the better team. But, it's a great spot for Washington. And, a great spot for a lot of points. Over the past three seasons, Dallas is 15-5 OVER on the road and 11-3 OVER in close games (+3 to -3). I expect a lot of scoring, with Washington either winning or keeping it close. Skins and the OVER here.

Baltimore exposed New Orleans last week. We were on the Ravens strong for a bunch of reasons, one being that New Orleans was a bit overrated (and remain so). They had built up a very strong 5-1 record prior to last week. Their offense and defense appeared very strong. And the public loved them (Reggie Bush, great story about bouncing back after Katrina, etc). What did we learn last week? Well, against a good defense, their offense isn't quite so potent. The Saints offense is ranked 7th but I don't think it's a top 7 offense. Even last week, if not for some late meaningless scores, they wouldn't have managed the 22 points they did. Their defense is now ranked 13th in yards allowed and 18th in points allowed. But they gave up 35 last week to Baltimore who supposedly had no offense. They held Cleveland to 14 in week one but who cares - that was Cleveland. They kept Atlanta to 3 in week 4 on Monday Night but we can throw that one out (that was a very emotional spot for them and Atlanta had no chance). The fact is the Saints have given up an average of 25 points per game the past four weeks. Tampa lost by 3 in New Orleans earlier this season. They outgained the Saints 406 to 314 in that game. Tampa would have won if not for a late 65-yard Reggie Bush punt return. The Bucs outplayed the Saints. Gradowski was 20-for-31 for 225 yards and two touchdowns - his best game yet. He was in a bad spot last week trying to come back from 21-0 in the first half. This week, he's got a much more favorable matchup. At home, with revenge on their minds, I like the Bucs to get the win.

Folks, there are few sure things in life. But opponents struggling to score at Soldier Field is one of them. Last year, the Bears allowed double digits only once (against high-powered Cincinnati in week 3). They held their other 7 home opponents to under 10 points. Three of them scored just 3 points. This season the Bears have picked up where they left off. In four home games, they have allowed 7, 6, 7, and 10. So combined that's 11 opponents out of the last 12 that they have held to 10 or less points! This is a matter of pride to this defense. They really want to "protect their house" and it shows. Miami comes in with the 29th ranked scoring offense. The Bears own the #1 rated defense from absolutely every meaningful perspective. Yards allowed per game? #1. Yards per play? #1. Points per game? #1. So bank on the Bears holding the Fins to single digits (good side bet if you can get it is to take Miami to score UNDER 12 points in this game). Chicago can certainly score. They actually lead the league in points per game at 31.6. But they are only ranked 12th in yards per game and 18th in yards per play. Miami has the 8th ranked defense in yards per game. Chicago has padded their offensive stats a bit playing some of the worst defenses in the league in Green Bay, Detroit, Arizona and San Francisco. They will see a different defense this week. Miami's game plan? Keep the game low scoring. Nick Saban knows his team isn't going to win a shootout - not against this Bears defense. I look for a very low scoring game here - one that comes in under the posted total.

It would be very easy to look at this game from a statistical standpoint and feel comfortable making a play on Minnesota. By the same token, it would feel very uncomfortable making a play on the Niners. So why then do we choose to step into the "discomfort" zone, and make a play on SF? There is one thing to be said about pro athletes: they have big egos, and when someone stomps on that ego, they come back breathing fire. This 49ers team certainly had their share humiliation, but one thing for sure. Each and every time they bounce back by playing 60 minutes of their best football. Last year they were smacked by Philadelphia 42-3 on the road and came home to give Dallas all they could handle, and got the cover. They went to Washington and got hammered 52-17 only to come home and beat Tampa Bay 15-10 as a 10.5 underdog. They got whacked by Seattle and came back and played Jacksonville almost even losing 10-9 at +16. This year they get bounced by KC 41-0 and bounce back and beat Oakland 34-20. This team has proven time and time again that it takes these loses personally. The NFL is about mindset and motivation, more than statistics and I love San Francisco's mindset this Sunday. Last week once again they were bruttaly beaten in Chicago 41-10. They will rise again. This year has already seen Tennessee cover off a 40-7 loss, Atlanta cover off a 23-3 Monday Night humiliation, the Jets come back and win off a 41-0 blowout, and Kansas City come back off a 45-7 drubbing. Ego makes this a very strong play this week. Throw in the bad emotional state of Minnesota (a team that thought they were very good and had high hopes and got exposed by New England), and we have an even stronger play on the dog here.

What a matchup. The 7-0 Colts dismantled the supposed "great" Denver defense last week, winning at Mile High. New England, flying under the radar for most of the year, absolutely embarrassed the Vikings on Monday Night. These two teams are flying high and the matchup has a lot of drama, too. New England has knocked out several great Colts teams in the playoffs in recent years. Brady vs. Manning. It doesn't get much better than this for a mid-season matchup. The Colts are the first team to start back-to-back seasons at 7-0 since Green Bay back int he late 1920s. Last year, the Colts broke the "New England jinx" at this exact time, going to Foxboro and beating the Patriots 40-21. This is a crucial game with home playoff implications. With Indy getting off the schneid last year (rare win in New England), do they have the Pats figured out? Are they confident going in here? I don't think so. Sure, they got a big win last year. But, the Patriots still own this Colts team. Outside of last year, Manning has had some real horrible performances in games played here. Bill Belichick is unmatched in his ability to gameplan for a particular player. He has been the only guy the past few years to force Manning, who's at the top of his game, to struggle. Manning, as great as he is, has thrown 14 interceptions in 11 career games against the Patriots. His record? 2-7 since Belichick came on board. Belichick's gameplan last week against the Vikings and their stout rush defense was brilliant. Manning will be facing a New England defense that is ranked third in the league in points allowed (12.4 per game). They haven't allowed more than 17 in any game thus far. On the flipside, we have Brady who is on fire right now and getting hotter. And he gets to pick apart a truly awful Colts defense. They are allowing 22 points per game and they have the worst rushing defense in the entire league. They've given up no fewer than 108 yards rushing, allowed over 175 four times and average 168 per game allowed. Ouch! With Laurence Maroney, the Pats should move the ball at will. And, if by chance the Colts find a way to slow him down, Brady will pick up the slack. Indy has been trying to fix this run defense for four weeks now after getting blasted by Jacksonville for 191 yards. Since then they have allowed over 200 yards on the ground twice! Indy's strength is obviously their passing game. Why has Manning struggled vs. the Pats so much? Belichick. Consider that New England is 18-7 ATS vs. great passing teams (260+ yards per game) over the past decade. Belichick finds a way to clamp down on his opponents' biggest strength. So what are we left with here? A home night game in Foxboro with the greatest gameplanner (Belichick) the game has known. The coolest QB since Joe Montana at the helm - who is playing at the top of his game. A very solid defense (ranked 3rd). And, a psychological edge. On the other side we have a horrible defense. The only thing the Colts have going for them is Manning. And, I just don' think that's enough to overcome all that's against them in this one. Patriots.