Free Football Pick - November 04, 2007
We're off our first winless week of the year - a train wreck plain and simple. Well, those things happen. We've had the best NFL record of any handicapper the past six years, averaging 16 units of profit per season with only one losing season. And, in every season, we have bad weeks. They are inevitable and guaranteed to happen. Make sure you are practicing good money management so you can survive weeks like last week and stay in the game to be there for the winners.
The good news is that we are still a very profitable 57% on the season, even after last week. This week we return with four Sunday plays...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: San Fransisco at Atlanta (Sunday 11/04 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 37 -110
The result of this game may have more impact on the 2008 draft than for either of these teams in 2007. In this game, if you're taking a side, you may just have to decide which you like the least as opposed to the most. We don't have an opinion on the side, but we do like the total. The Niners are about as bad an offensive team as we have seen in the NFL in years. They are ranked dead last in the league in yards per game, are averaging 12.6 points per game, and have managed to find the endzone just five times in the last five weeks. What is more amazing is the fact that in three of the five games they found it in the last four minutes. That means in "real" game situations they have managed just two TDs in 280 minutes of football. Atlanta can't be considered much better, and perhaps even worse. They are getting 13.6 per game and have managed three touchdowns in the last three games. One was a 67 yard run and another was a 56 yard fumble recovery, so the offense has sustained exactly one drive in 180 minutes of football. These teams have combined to produce 26 points per game of offense between them, and less if you negate TDs not scored by the offense. It is no wonder that the Falcons have played UNDER in 13 of their last 16, and the Niners have played 9 of their last 13 UNDER when an underdog. Atlanta is 16-6 UNDER the past two seasons at home including 8-1 UNDER as a favorite. We like this game to be painful to watch and low scoring, so we will grab the UNDER.
Game: San Diego at Minnesota (Sunday 11/04 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Minnesota +7
Getting 7 points at home is very rare in the NFL. Getting 7 from a 4-3 team is even more rare. Is Minnesota really that bad? Is San Diego that good? We don't think so. The Vikings have had some very good seasons over the years, as well as some dreadful ones. But it's been over 11 years since they were instilled as a 7 point home underdog. It last happened vs. Green Bay on September 22nd, 1996. They won that game by 8 points. The Chargers all of a sudden have everyone's attention, as they appear to now be the same team they were last year after a rough start. The clincher was their 35-10 blowout win over Houston last week. We aren't yet sold on this team being completely back. That 25-point win margin over the Texans was somewhat misleading as they scored twice on defense and benefitted from a 5-0 turnover margin. The San Diego offense, even with those five extra possessions, scored just three times all game. They managed just 28 against Oakland at home and it was all Tomlinson. When San Diego struggled to start the year, what was the problem? Tomlinson couldn't get going and Rivers can't do it alone. The Vikings can do one thing good, and that is stop the run. The Vikes allow a league low 2.91 yards per carry and the Chargers have proven to struggle when Tomlinson finds the going tough. San Diego had the fourth rated offense last season, but has now slipped below the middle of the pack to 19th. The Vikings are a very tough out when they are given a FG or more at home, as they are 15-2 ATS since 1988 getting 3+. There have only been four times in history the oddsmakers have given them this many at home, and they won three of the four. The Chargers may have a difficult time staying focused for this one, as they have Indianapolis on deck, followed by Jacksonville, Baltimore, Tennessee, KC (div. leader) and Detroit (5-2). Norv Turner-coached teams are just 7-23 ATS when facing a bad team (40% or less SU). We like the Vikes for the cover, with a small chance to spring the outright upset.
Game: Seattle at Cleveland (Sunday 11/04 4:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47 -110
Cleveland has turned into a team that, for the moment at least, looks like a playoff contender. This game may go a long way in deciding their fate. The Browns have looked superb offensively this season, but when analyzing the numbers below the surface, another story emerges. While the Browns are scoring 36 ppg against teams with losing records, they are getting just 17 ppg against teams with winning records. They have risen above the basement, but still show signs of their heritage against the better teams. Seattle has already had three weeks of the young NFL season where they have kept a team out of the endzone all game. The fact is the Browns #6 rated offense has produced under 300 yards per game against .500+ teams, which would land them near the bottom of the league. The Browns have played six games in a row UNDER as a home favorite, while Seattle has played four of five UNDER after an ATS win. Cleveland is also 6-0 UNDER with Romeo Crennel as a home favorite of 3 or less. This game will be much lower scoring than most expect, and we will ride the UNDER.
Game: Houston at Oakland (Sunday 11/04 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Houston +3
Oakland hasn't been a favorite much in recent years. When they have laid points, they have not been kind to backers. This team is just way too unreliable on the offensive side of the ball to be favored in any game. They have had three opportunities to cash as a favorite this season and failed each time. We think they make it 0-4 on Sunday. The offensive line has yielded 22 sacks already and Daunte Culpepper has a penchant for fumbling (he holds the NFL record for the most in a season). The Raiders don't get to the QB either, and are dead last against the run (ranked #32 allowing 5.3 yards per carry). Houston is banged up, but they still have more to offer than Oakland at this stage of the season. The Raiders have lost five straight games as a favorite, are 7-18 ATS to teams with losing records, and 6-19 ATS at home last 25. The Silver and Black are also 3-13 ATS the past three seasons when the line is -3 to +3 and they are 5-14 ATS overall at home over that span! Houston has always played well after back-to- back losses, as they are 21-11 ATS in that situation. Houston is the better team, even in their banged up state, and getting 3 points is a gift we'll take.
Results: 3-1
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-October-26-2007
Most people are surprised to see this Cleveland team at 3-3. Without a missed field goal as time expired vs. Oakland, they'd be 4-2. The bigger surprise is seeing St. Louis coming i...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-22-2007
The Indianapolis Colts come to Jacksonville attempting to remain unbeaten to keep pace with the Patriots. On Sunday, the sexy high-powered teams came through again. Dallas covered a big spread and New...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-19-2007
We're don't often lay big chalk like this but we love this situation. The Dallas Cowboys were brought back down to earth last week vs. the New England Patriots, as the Pats continued...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-15-2007
The NY Giants bring a three-game winning streak into Atlanta to face the injury-riddled Falcons. Atlanta has issues. Alge Crumpler spoke out after last week's loss, voicing strong critical op...
NFL-Football-Picks-October-11-2007
With Matt Schaub at QB, Houston has gotten a lot of people thinking they have turned the corner. To some extent they have. This is a much better team than before. But how much better? In the preseason...
