Nfl Football Prediction - November 01, 2009
Happy Halloween to you. What a week it was last week. For bettors on favorites, it was amazing. For bettors on dogs (including me), it was awful. For the sportsbooks it was a record-setting day (see my Pound Article below). We posted a very rare 0-fer-week. Two of the picks (Cleveland and Oakland) were just plain bad. Neither team was in the game. The other two we got really screwed on. In both the Minnesota game and the Miami game, our teams had the ball, covering the spread, with two minutes to go. No way we can lose even with a turnover - unless that turnover is returned for six the other way. Well, in both games, that happened. Argh. Anwyay, on to this week's picks...
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Houston at Buffalo (Sunday 11/01 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +3.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Matt Schaub is having a great year but he may be without Andre Johnson here. If Johnson does play, he may not be up to speed. This could be a tricky spot for Houston as Buffalo has the third ranked pass defense and they have a knack for picking off opposing QBs. This team kept an even hotter Drew Brees from finding the endzone. The Bills can be had on the ground, but unfortunately for Houston, the offensive line simply can not create running room for Steve Slayton. I doubt they will be able to exploit the Bills weakness effectively. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been an upgrade over Trent Edwards, and he is doing the right thing by getting the ball to the most talented player on offense in Lee Evans. He should be able to move the chains against a Texans pass defense that made Alex Smith look good. The Texans are an offensive team. That generates line value on the other side as the public loves that type of team. But are they ready to be better than a FG road choice? Their franchise history says “no” as they have been road chalk just twice in their history - losing both games outright. They are also 6-18 ATS in team history coming off a home win and 4-16 ATS on the road coming off a win. I like Buffalo to keep this very close.
Game: Miami at New York Jets (Sunday 11/01 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Miami +3.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Miami Dolphins are a couple of Ted Ginn dropped passes away from a 4-2 record. Instead, they sit at 2-4. This team is better than their record and they are the better team coming into this game. The teams against which Miami has struggled defensively this season have one thing in common: an elite quarterback. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers have had success vs. the Fins secondary this season. They aren't facing one of those quarterbacks this week. After a great start, Mark Sanchez has been under siege and has proven that pressure forces him into some drastic rookie mistakes. That has led to just six TD passes to ten INTs and a QB rating of 61.5. The Dolphins have feasted on QBs that don't rank in the upper half of the league at the time they played them. They are 11-1 straight up since the beginning of last year against a QB not in the top 10 in QB rating. Their wildcat offense has been a smashing success all season, including vs. the Jets two weeks ago. In that game, New York had all-world nose tackle Kris Jenkins who will not be there this time around. New York has run the ball well this season, but the Dolphins held them to 87 yards on 24 carries. If that happens again, the Jets success will depend on Sanchez which is not a high confidence situation. To make matters worse for New York, Leon Washington is now gone as an offensive weapon. The Dolphins have come up big on the road against teams with a winning home record where they are 12-2 ATS in their last 14. The Jets stand at just 5-13-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. I like the Dolphins here as I think they are the better team on the field, getting points.
Game: Denver at Baltimore (Sunday 11/01 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Denver +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Wrong team favored. I was on Denver three weeks ago and faded them two weeks ago. I should have stayed on them. They have now officially proven they are for real. What else could be asked of this team? They have amassed a perfect record while holding opponents to 11 points per game. At first their schedule was questionable but their last three wins have come against Dallas, New England and San Diego. Yet, they are still an underdog. Probably the biggest irony of this entire game has to do with the defenses. The Ravens have the reputation for awesome defense, but it's the Broncos who have earned that reputatation this season. With the departure of Rex Ryan, the Ravens defense has been average, allowing 333 yards and 22 points per game. They've been torched for 24+ points in four of their six games this season and they are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in defense. Baltimore has put up just two good defensive performances, those coming against Cincinnati and lowly Cleveland. The Broncos may in fact be the only 6-0 team in NFL history that hasn't been more than a three-point favorite in any game. They are a dog for the fifth time in seven games. With this line, you would think that they were playing the Patriots or Saints here, not a team that has lost three games in a row. It is the offense that has carried the Ravens. The offense has been good, but they have spent the bulk of their schedule feasting on weak defenses. In five of their six games, the Ravens have gone against defenses that rank No. 17, 18, 20, No. 29 and No. 32. That is five of six games vs. defenses that are in the bottom half of the league. They certainly won't have their way with the Broncos defense, and that means the aging Ravens defense will be on the field more. Denver can do enough offensively to take control of this game. The Ravens have not stood up to teams with a winning road record as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five. I'm riding the Broncos in this one as they
Game: St. Louis at Detroit (Sunday 11/01 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 44 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Well something has to give in this one. The reigning team in futility the Detroit Lions, who recently broke the losing streak at 19, will be taking on the current contender the St. Louis Rams who have now lost 17 in a row. What is frightening to fans is that the Rams have now gone 2-25 in their last 27, while the Lions have gone 2-28. That is a combined mark of futility of 4-53. Now to the game. No matter how you slice it, or no matter who the opponent, the Rams certainly just can't move the chains. When they do, they turn the ball over, or something bad happens - a true trademark of a bad team. The Rams have failed to score 17 points in 17 of their last 23 games. The Lions aren't only a bad football team, the weapons they have on offense are all banged up. Daunte Culpepper (hamstring) and Calvin Johnson (knee) are both nursing injurys. Speaking of Culpepper - in his two starts since replacing Matthew Stafford, the Lions have averaged 10 points per game. This team has also shown a history of following a bad offensive performance with another. The Lions were shutout in their last game and history shows that when they score 13 points or less, the next week they come back and score an average of 15.6 points per game in their next game. Maybe the NFL should just start this game as if it was a 0-0 tie, with the first team to score getting the win, because there certainly isn't any interest in watching this one. The Lions have delivered five straight UNDERS off a bye week. In the end, these teams are just so bad that what we should expect is an ugly, low-scoring affair.
Game: Cleveland at Chicago (Sunday 11/01 1:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +14 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
I know, I know - Cleveland is bad! Yes they are, but this is a situation in which I think grabbing the points on them will pay dividends. It's similar to me to the game two weeks ago when they played the Steelers. We were on Cleveland as they covered in that one, getting two touchdowns. The difference here, if there is one, is that we are getting more value at a similar spread. Chicago is certainly no Pittsburgh! Since I have been logging NFL data, which goes back a very long time, this will be the first time in NFL history to my knowledge that a team lost by 28 or more points and is a favorite of 11+ in their next game. Chicago is a 3-3 team that has shown inconsistency, much like their QB Jay Cutler has shown his entire career. Matt Forte is not running the ball as well as last season. Also, their wins over the Lions and the Seahawks didn't prove much. So their season hangs their hat on one game - a three-point win over Pittsburgh. The Bears had a chance to show they were for real the last two weeks and failed to deliver. They are allowing 30 points per game on defense in their last three while producing just 12 ppg in their last two. The Browns are no doubt a mess and there aren’t too many positive things you can say about there offense. But the Bears laying virtually two TDs against anyone right now is dangerous territory. Cleveland seems to respond to a poor defensive game in the previous week, as they have followed a defensive performance of allowing 30 or more points with an 11-3 ATS mark. The Bears aren't the type of team designed to take down big pointspreads as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a favorite of 10.5 or more. I am fading Chicago with this big line.
Game: Jacksonville at Tennessee (Sunday 11/01 4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Jacksonville +3 (-115) (risk 4 to win 3.5)
Another first will take place in this strange NFL season as the Titans come into this game favored. It's the first time to my knowledge that a team that lost by the most points of any team their last time out (59) has been favored in their next game. It is hard to say what is going on in Tennessee, but certain to say it is not good. The Titans were 13-3 last year, and have opened this season 0-6. Many thought at 0-3 that this team would turn it on. Then they dropped to 0-4 and again, most thought the same thing. But when they went to 0-5, this team obviously quit, playing the worst game I can remember seeing a team play vs. New England two weeks ago. So why would they show up after needing a win for two weeks in the worst way, and then when their season was completely over, just go through the motions? They showed no resolve or pride, and I don't expect them to suddenly find it at 0-6 knowing that their season is all but over. Desperate to do something (nothing else has worked), Jeff Fisher benched Kerry Collins in favor of Vince Young. Young is supposed to save this team? Child please. It's reported that Fisher didn't even want to do this but owner Bud Adams told him to. That shows you how much faith Fisher has in Young. But, Fisher's attentions would be better focused on a defense that has allowed 33 points and over 400 yards per game! Jacksonville has a different mission as they can move to 4-3 and become viable playoffs contenders with a win. They have begun to play much better in recent weeks, going 3-1 the last four . The oddsmakers keep living on the Titans of a year ago, and this team is not only is losing, they are not even competitive as they have dropped each of their last three games by 20+ including one to the Jags. While he's had his ups and downs as coach of the Jags, Jack Del Rio is at his best as an underdog where he has posted a 32-21 ATS mark. Jacksonville is the better team on this field and I am backing them with the points.
Game: Carolina at Arizona (Sunday 11/01 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Arizona -10 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Cardinals have begun to resemble the team that gave the Steelers all they could handle in last year's Super Bowl. They started the season with a Super Bowl hangover losing two of their first three games. But, in looking back, one of those losses came at the hands of Indianapolis which we can't hold against them too much. Last week, they took on a superb Giants team on the road and came away with an impressive seven-point win. They have taken their last three after their bye week. QB Kurt Warner has regained his form and has now passed for over 800 yards while throwing five TD passes in the three wins, completing 68% of his passes. The Cards’ biggest change has been on the defensive side of the ball where they are allowing just 18.2 points per game, which puts them in the top seven in fewest points allowed. Outside of the game vs. the Colts (who are putting up big numbers on everyone), that number dips to just 15.6 ppg. Although not grouped with the real uglies in the league (Oakland, KC, Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay), Carolina is a really bad team. They have won two games - against really bad teams in Tampa Bay and Washington. And both of those games lay in the balance until the final minutes of hte game. The Cards are allowing nothing on the ground which puts Carolina in a bad spot as Jake Delhomme is going to have to have a big game - something he hasn't done in quite some time. Delhomme has become a turnover machine with 17 INTs and three lost fumbles in his last seven games. He is now personally responsible for three turnovers per game. And this all started for him in the playoffs last year vs. this Arizona team in a game in which he turned the ball over five times. That will be in his head and right now that's disasterous for him and his team. The Panthers have put Josh McCown on IR, leaving only Matt Moore as the backup to Delhomme. The Panthers' offense has been stalled except against losing teams, and last week they couldn't even reach double-digits vs. Buffalo. With lots of injuries and a QB starving for confidence, Carolina won't be able to put up much of a fight. Arizona should roll here.
Results: 2-5
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
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