Nfl Football Pick - February 05, 2012

It's Super Bowl time and I can't tell you how excited I am. There's nothing like this game - the best time of the year!

We enter the final game of the 2011/12 season off a down year in which we went 102-97 on regular picks and 10-7 on Season Win Totals picks. We look to end strong on the Super Bowl, a game in which we've done extremely well in the past (17-3 for 85% over the past four years). Here's my record on Super Bowl picks (game picks + props) the past four years:

Super Bowl XLII (2008): 3-1
Super Bowl XLIII (2009): 5-1
Super Bowl XLIV (2010): 4-0
Super Bowl XLV (2011): 5-1
2008-2011 TOTAL: 17-3

This year I have a pick on the game as well as 6 prop bets. A note about props: You'll see that I have a lot riding on the props - way more than the game side itself. Why is that? Value. The bigger an edge you have, and the more confident about that edge, the more you should risk. The line and total on a game like this are pounded into perfection many times (although I think this one is off this year). There's so much attention on it that you are unlikely to find a massive edge. Where can you find big edges? In places where oddsmakers are likely to make more mistakes. Super Bowl props are one of these areas. There are so many props that mistakes are more common. They don't have the data or the time (or both) to set some of these props right. As such, I have found some where I feel there is a huge player edge. These are the ones we want to pound. Can they lose? Absolultely! There are no locks. Anything can happen. So bet wisely and within your bankroll. But, I like these props a lot and think that there are some in which the line or odds are way off where they should be. Those are the bets you live for.

Good luck this Sunday and as always, I appreciate your business.

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (Sunday 2/05 6:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Giants +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

Whether we wanted it or not, we get a rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl. Personally I am looking forward to the rematch. In that 2008 game the Giants, a 12.5 point underdog, shocked the world by defeating the then 18-0 New England Patriots. In that game, I was big on the Giants and it played out nicely. There are a lot of similarities between that season and this season for the Giants. I won't go into all of those again, but suffice to say, we again see New York squeaking into the playoffs and making it to the big game as an underdog against the Mighty Pats. We again see the Giants take the improbable path from "left for dead" to playing in the final game of the season. Will the results be the same? My computer matchup for this game (NOT an official pick) likes the Pats to get the win and cover. The public is backing the Giants. As always, let's dig very deep to try to ascertain what will happen in this game...

How many points will New York score? The Giants ranked #9 in points and #8 in yards this season, getting slightly better towards the end of the season. They averaged 25 points per game overall and 28.2 points per game in their last five games once they turned things around following a week 15 loss to the Redskins. Against teams with a defense similar to New England's (#15 in points allowed), New York averaged over 30 points per game this season. How did New England fare defensively this year vs. offenses similar to New York's? The Patriots gave up around 20 points per game to good offenses like the Giants'. This was a somewhat surprising finding to me, given how much New England's 31st ranked defense (yards) got this season. The bottom line in my book is that points matter more than yards and despite the fact that the Pats gave up a ton of yards, their defense was able to keep teams to 20.7 points per game this year. In the first matchup between these two teams, the Giants scored 24 points in a road win. So, it's very likely that the Giants will score somewhere between 20 and 30 points in this game. I think it will be on the upper end of that. Why? The reality is that New England didn't face very many good teams this year. They played the easiest schedule in the league and faced only three top-tier quarterbacks. In week two they took on Phillip Rivers who carved them for 378 yards and two touchdowns. In week six, Tony Romo put up 317 yards and one touchdown. In week eight, Ben Roethlisberger threw from 365 yards and a pair of touchdowns vs. the Patriots. This Pats defense allowed Dan Orlovsky to complete 81% of his passes and allowed Vince Young to notch a 400-yard passing game. Only two QBs this season failed to throw a touchdown vs. the Patriots: Tim Tebow and Tyler Palko. What is Eli Manning and this very talented Giants receiving corp going to do to this defense? Manning has emerged as a top-flight QB and I think he will get his in this game against this Pats defense. Two weeks ago, Julian Edelman was asked to cover Anquan Boldin and Edelman was abused. These Giants wide receivers are very talented and deep and Manning can really spread the ball around. The fact that people are starting to ask the "Eli or Peyton" question tells you how far the younger brother has come. Personally, I don't think there's any comparison (yet). Peyton is one of the best of all time. Eli has a lot more to prove. But, Eli has shown that he can play with anyone on the biggest stage. So let's conservatively put New York down for 27 points here. Let's turn to New England...

How many points will New England score? The Patriots can score. They ranked 2nd in yards and 3rd in the league in points per game. This team averaged 32.3 points per game this season and towards the end of the season and in the playoffs (last five games), they bumped that to 37 per game. How did the Giants defense fare this season against powerhouse offenses? The Giants ranked #24 in points allowed this season (23.1 per game) so it's not pretty. Against offenses like New England's, New York allowed about 29 points per game. When that Pats faced defenses similar to New York's this season, they averaged 32.5 points per game. At the end of the season this Giants defense really started to click. They did keep an explosive Green Bay offense to 20 points three weeks ago. In their last five games of the season, the Giants allowed just 13 points per game. And, when these two teams met earlier this season, New York kept the Patriots to just 20 points. So, we have an initial starting range here of somewhere between 20 and 33 points for the Pats. Let's dissect this offense a little more to try to narrow that down. How good is it? The problem for New England is the weak schedule they faced. They put up some gaudy numbers including games scoring 38, 35, 31, 31, 30, 37, 34, 38, 31, 34, 41, 49 and 45. But, those games came against the Dolphins, Bills, Raiders, Jets, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, Redskins and Broncos. So, I believe New England's offensive numbers are bit inflated based on the competition. This offense struggled against good defenses including the Cowboys, Steelers, Giants and Ravens. If Tom Brady has time to sit in the pocket and throw, he is nearly unstoppable. But, if he is moved off his spot, he can quickly turn into an average quarterback. The Ravens did that last week, and Brady had a bad game. In 2008, the Giants did it, and won the Super Bowl. The Giants again this year have the capability to move him off his spot, even rushing only four, if those players' names include Tuck, Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora, Canty and Bernard. New York was tied for 2nd in the league this year in sacks with 48 in the regular season. If you hope to contain Brady, this is a prerequisite and the Giants, at least on paper, fit the bill. The big question in this game in my mind is, which Giants defense shows up? Is it the team that allowed 27 points per game through the first 15 weeks? Or is it the one that allowed 13 per game from that point forward? I believe it will be somewhere in-between but I definitely feel that this defense is much better than the full-season numbers would indicate. I think the Patriots are likely to score in the high 20's in this game (likely around 27 points).

So, we are left with a predicted score of around 27 to 27, give or take (this is not a precise science). Based on this, and other factors, I do believe the oddsmakers got this line wrong. I think it should be about a pick'em spread but they are giving the Giants 3 points. The truth is, either team can win this game, so getting points represents value. But, there are other reasons to like the Giants here too...

Other reasons I like the Giants
The Patriots have had a great season on paper, but I don't know how much they really proved. Sure, they have a very pretty record and their offense can score a lot of points. They've won ten straight games since the Giants beat them. But who have the Patriots beaten? Prior to last week's win over Baltimore, the Patriots had not beaten a winning team (a team that finished the regular season above 8-8) all year! They went 1-4 ATS this season vs. playoff teams. In their only real regular season tests, they lost to both Pittsburgh and the Giants. And, last week's win was a squeaker. The Ravens were a dropped TD pass away from ending the Patriots season. Then, a 32-yard chip shot was missed to send New England to this game. So New England needed a lot of luck to escape at home with a win in a game in which they were a TD favorite. The Giants also received some luck last week, but that was on the road as an underdog in weather conditions that were supposed to benefit their opponent. Can the Patriots beat a good team without that luck? I'm not saying they can't. They certainly can win this game. But, the point is that they probably shouldn't be favored here against the Giants because they haven't shown yet that they can win as a favorite vs. a quality team.

Meanwhile, the Giants this year proved themselves against winning teams. New York went 4-3 straight-up and 5-2 ATS vs. playoff teams this season. They had to win playoff games on the road in Atlanta, Green Bay and San Francisco to get here. The Giants played up to their competition level this season. Versus losing teams, New York went 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. But vs. .500 or greater teams, they went 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS! While New England faced teams this season that collectively went 141-157 (.473), the Giants faced teams that went 176-139 (.559). So yes, the Pats put up better numbers and posted a better record, but once you account for competition, these teams start looking a lot more similar with the edge maybe going to the Giants. And, on top of the easy schedule, the Pats benefited from a large positive turnover margin this season (+17 in turnovers - 3rd best in the league). As I've written before, turnovers are mostly luck and you can't count on that positive luck continuing every game. The two teams that were luckier than New England this season? Green Bay and San Francisco. Ask them how it turned out for them vs. the Giants when the turnover battle didn't go their way.

The concern for backing the Giants has to be weeks 10-15 where they went 1-5 and were outscored 188-136. Let's look at those games. Were the Giants really that bad during that stretch or were those results at all misleading? Three of those five losses came to teams that went deep into the playoffs this season (SF, GB, NO). In those three games, the Giants lost the turnover battle 6-to-2. So those three losses all of a sudden don't look that bad in retrospect. The other two losses came to Philadelphia and Washington. In those two games, the Giants defense actually played very well. The problem was that their offense scored a total of 20 points, possibly held down by division opponents who know better than most how to slow down the Giants offense. I don't think they are at risk of scoring that low in this game considering that this team has averaged 28 points per game since then and faces a defense that can give up chunks of yardage.

In the first matchup between these teams this season, the Giants were able to go on the road and win outright as a 9-point underdog despite the absence of Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks. Those two will be playing in this game and as a result, this Giants offense will be that much harder to stop. The Giants have shown in the playoffs the ability to convert on third down. New England is one of the worst teams in the league this season at getting off the field on third down (ranked 28th, allowing 43.46% opponent third-down conversion success). Why can't New York win again?

There are of course some concerns in backing the Giants here. The first one is the revenge factor. Bill Belichick is a master at beating teams that beat him earlier in the same season. The Belichick+Brady combo is 43-13 SU and 36-17-3 ATS in games when avenging a loss. A New York win here would be their third straight over the Hoody and Brady and that seems unlikely. But, each game is different. Revenge usually plays a bigger role when your opponent lets down. This is the Super Bowl. There will be no Giants letdown. They want to win this too. Additionally, Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have proven a pretty potent combo as well. Together they have posted a 40-25 SU and 41-23-1 ATS record when playing on the road. When carrying momentum into a road game (coming off a win), they are 27-12 SU and 28-10-1 ATS.

The higher seed in the Super Bowl has gone just 1-12-2 ATS the last fifteen Super Bowls. Number one seeds (New England) are just 6-12-1 ATS since 1990 including 2-8 SU and ATS the last ten years! Can the Giants keep up their improbable upset winning? In the last 19 Super Bowls that featured a team off an upset win as an underdog, that team has gone 12-6-1 ATS in the big game. If the team is off back-to-back upset wins to arrive here, they are 6-1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. So don't worry about predicting another upset. Based on recent history, it's more likely than not.

The bottom line here is that either team can win this game. If Brady is protected and is on, the Patriots will likely win. If the Giants turn the ball over a lot and New England protects it, the Pats will win. But, not knowing what will happen with turnovers, I think the edge goes to the Giants thanks to a tougher schedule and getting hot at the right time. I like the Giants matchups on offense, especially in the passing game and I like New York's chances at getting pressure on Brady to keep him from picking them apart. Getting points in a game like this is the right way to go. Take the G-Men plus the 3 points!

During the 2011-12 regular season, an average of 8.88 points per game where scored in the first quarter. But of course we have two good offense / two bad defenses here, right? New York games averaged 8.7 first quarter points while New England games averaged 10.3 per game. Average the two and we get 9.4 points which is over a full point lower than this posted total. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.2 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring! Ten of the last twelve Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. Last year was not one of those as 14 points were scored. But, that was really a fluke thanks to a very rare pick-6.  The three years prior to last year saw an average of 5.3 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10). Even with last year's results mixed in, we get an average of just 7.5 points scored in the first quarter. The quarterbacks in those games? Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. As the magnitude of this game seems grows each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, they are trying avoid big mistakes early. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative. Even in games that were expected to be very high-scoring like this one, the 1st quarter has gone UNDER the total much more than not. Four years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Two years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The 1st quarter total went under the 10.5 line. With ten of the last twelve Super Bowls producing less than 10 points in the first quarter, the UNDER is the play here. This line is available at Bovada and WagerWeb.

In contrast to the first quarter, the fourth quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and (especially) in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The league average in the fourth quarter this NFL season was 12.6 (40% higher than the first quarter). In Patriots games, 15 points were scored on average and in Giants games, a ridiculously high 17.5 were scored on average! So based on those numbers, we might expect 16.4 points in the 4th quarter this year. However, it gets better. In the Super Bowl, these figures have traditionally increased. In fact, 17 of the last 24 Super Bowl games (71%) have seen the fourth quarter produce 13+ points. Four years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Three years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Two season ago, there was a push with 14 points scored in the 4th. And, last season, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 4th quarter points. In this game, I think the offenses will be clicking by the fourth quarter. With a 71% trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter. This line is available WagerWeb.

Once again we look to take advantage of oddsmaker error in a prop bet on which they have mis-calculated. Which half of football games see more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead-heat with 22.2 points being scored on average in the first half and 22.3 scored in the second half of games. So, this line is set about right according to that. But we need to dig deeper. In 45 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.42 and 24.13. So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. The second half has been the highest scoring half in 28 of the 45 Super Bowls (62.2%). Fair odds on a 62.2% bet are -165. But we get -110 here. Now have things changed over the past 45 years? Yes they have. The discrepancy has become more pronounced. In the last 20 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.25, Second half = 28.25. That's a 27% difference in points! In the last 13 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 11 times (85%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 last year in the first quarter. Without that, we might have seen the 12th time in 13 years that the 2nd half has outscored the first half. So, getting -110 odds on this bet provides a lot of value for a bet. This line is available at TopBet or Bovada.

If all quarters were treated equal, then each would have a 25% chance of being the highest scoring and fair odds on this bet would be +300. But, not all quarters are created equal. This season, the average points scored for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, was 8.9, 13.3, 9.6, and 12.5. So it would seem that the 2nd quarter would be the best bet for highest-scoring. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers know this. The odds for betting the 2nd quarter are just +170, providing very little if any value. But there is value on taking the 4th quarter because the oddsmakers are again not paying enough attention. The average points per quarter for first 45 Super Bowls are: 1st: 8.24, 2nd: 11.29, 3rd: 9.29, 4th: 13.40. Yes, the Super Bowl is different! In last 21 years it's gotten even more pronounced: 1st: 9.00, 2nd: 13.38, 3rd: 11.00, 4th: 16.76. The 4th quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in 11 of the last 16 Super Bowls (69%). At 69%, the odds you should be laying are -225. But, instead, we are getting +220 here. In terms of value, this is about as good as it gets! This line is available at Bovada.

In 45 Super Bowls, there have been 14 scoreless quarters in 13 games. That equates to a scoreless quarter occurring 28.9% of the time (13/45). So, fair odds based on a 71% winner are -245, and that's how linesmakers are setting this line. Good for them. But, that's not the whole story. Things have changed dramatically and the oddsmakers haven't noticed! The early Super Bowls were more defensive than the current era. The first 20 Super Bowls averaged 41.9 points per game while the last 21 have averaged 49.9 per game. That's an 19% increase. And that, of course, reduces the chances of a scoreless quarter. So we would expect to see fewer of these occurring as time goes on, and that's exactly what we see. Seven of the first eleven Super Bowls (64%) had a scoreless quarter. That leaves only 6 games with a scoreless quarter in the last 34 Super Bowls (17.6%)! If we assume the modern era rate of 82.4% without a scoreless quarter, the fair odds on a NO bet are -470. So at -260 we are getting a tremendous overlay. Take the NO on this bet. This line is available at BetUS (or you can get -320 at TopBet).

I know most people don't like laying 12 to win 1. If you are one of the people who can't bear to do it, then by all means, lay off this bet. But for those of you that are seeking tremendous value, read on because this prop bet is laden with it. When trying to predict an outcome, the more data you have the better. If you can get a large enough sample size, you can really cut down the risk involved with your prediction. Luckily, for a prop bet like this, we have a great wealth of reliable statistics. The chances of a game having a blocked punt is really simple to figure out. All we need to do is look at the past. As long as we have a large enough sample, and rules haven't changed in some significant way, then we can be fairly certain from a statistical standpoint that the best predictor of the future will be the past. Historically, blocked punts happen in about 4% to 5% of all NFL games over a very long period. We have thousands of games at which to look, making this a very reliable stat for statistical purposes. This season there were only nine blocked, which is just 3.5% of 256 games. Each of the last two seasons there were 12 blocked punts (4.7%). Three seasons ago there were 6 blocked punts and the year before, 13. Since 2005, we've seen anywhere from 6 to 13 blocked punts, with an average of 10.6 (4.15% of the time). This season, in all of the games played by New England and New York, there were zero blocked punts. So, history has a strong story to tell and the story is that a blocked punt has a 4% to 5% chance of occurring in a game. Fair and true odds on a bet that has a 95% chance of winning is -1800. Fair odds on a 4% chance of occurrence is -2400. Yet, the sportsbooks slant this one heavily, knowing that the general public likes risking a little to win a lot, vs. the opposite. That results in a market inefficiency for those of us who aren't afraid of laying big moneyline if the value is present. I'm on this one at -1200, as it represents a huge overlay compared to the fair odds of around -2000. This line is available at Bovada and BetUS.

Results: 4-2

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Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

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