We took a big step backwards last week after starting off so well in the Wildcards. We stand at 4-3 and 17-13 on a unit-basis thus far. This week we have three picks total.

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit $100 per unit players have made $7,881 $500 per unit players have made $39,405 $1000 per unit players have made $78,810 View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

Please Tell A Friend about this newsletter and they'll thank you!

Good luck to you...

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: New Orleans at Chicago (Sunday 1/21 3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New Orleans +3

Unlike the AFC, the two teams favored to get to this round in the NFC did just that. New Orleans has been a feel-good story all year and continued last week as they beat Philly by three points to get here. The season began with the Saints homeless and apparently heading nowhere. They were absolutely horrible last season yet they are one win away from the Super Bowl this year. They've done this by adding a sprinkle of Reggie Bush, a healthy dose of Drew Brees and some talented new receivers. Suddenly the Saints are good. No - make that great! The final score last week was close but without a fumble late in the game, they kick a field goal to win by six and get the cover. Chicago started the year hotter than any team. Their defense, very good for years, was impenatrable early on in 2006. And Rex Grossman was playing out of his mind in September so the offense was putting up unreal numbers. They won their first five games by an average score of 31.2 to 7.2! But while the Saints have been steady and improving throughout the year, the Bears have changed dramatically as the season has progressed. The Bears defense, allowingunder 10 points per game through seven weeks, has allowed to 20.7 per game over their last nine games. The offense has gone from scoring 31.6 ppg to scoring 22.9 ppg. They have lost 10 points on offense and 11 on defense! They have gone from the best on both sides of the ball to average on both sides of the ball and this slide has shown no slide of slowing. The biggest concern is a defense that has gotten progressively worse and couldn't stop a team when they needed to last week at home in January. The last five games Chicago has given up 26 ppg. The most startling stat of all is they have yielded an NFL worst 15 of 23 red-zone possessions for touchdowns. Think about that - they are allowing 68% touchdowns in the red zone! The Bears have yielded 374.6 yards a game over their last five games, which ranks them dead last in the entire NFL. This performance hasn't come against great offenses either. Their last five opponents were ranked 29, 22, 19, 9 and 6. The only two offenses you see there in the top 10, Green Bay and St. Louis gained an average of 420 yards a game against the Bears. Keep in mind they are now facing the league's #1 offense. How can a defense that was so good be so bad right now? Then there is the issue with the Bears offense, namely Rex Grossman. Do we see the good Grossman or do we see the bad Grossman here? The bad Grossman likely results in a New Orleans blowout win. The good Grossman means we have a competitive game. The other wildcard in this game is both coaches nightmare, Devin Hester. He has six returns for touchdowns but he also has double digit fumbles. He has had three games where he has fumbled at least three times. While he gets noticed for his amazing returns and record TDs, keep in mind that he has fumbled twice as many times as he has returned kicks for scores so the odds favor a turn on a fumble. New Orleans gets headlines for their offense, but don't discount the defense. They give up 12 yards per game less than the Bears. If you look at recent stats, as we pointed out above, their defense is better than that of the Bears. Their offense is a juggernaut. Drew Brees has thrown for over 4,000 yards with 26 TD's and 11 INT's. Duece McAllister is running healthy again. He absolutely carved up the Eagles last week. Reggie Bush caught 89 balls and is a game-breaker, as is Devery Henderson who averages over 23 yards a catch. The Saints can drive the field but also have quick strike capacity, as Brees has completed five passes for 70+ yards. Believe it or not have seven players that have caught a pass for over 40 yards and 11 that have caught one for over 20 yards. The way Brees spreads the ball around reminds us of another QB that has a few Super Bowl rings (hint: Tom Brady). The Bears could not stop a #19 ranked Seattle offense last week and allowed them to go 3 for 3 in the red-zone. The Bears have shown against good offenses recently in Green Bay and St. Louis that they are susceptible to giving up 400+ yards. The loss of starting SS Mike Brown and DT Tommie Harris has really hurt this unit. This vaunted Bears defense is just not anything like it was. They rank #9 overall but in the last five games, they rank #32. Now they must stop the best offense is in the NFL. If New Orleans scores, which we think they will, it will put pressure on Grossman and the Bears offense to match scores, getting the Bears out of the game they want to play. Yes, this is a road game for the Saints but in this round, road teams have had the edge of late. The Saints went 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road this year scoring 30+ points in six of eight games! And, we get points to boot! Wrong team favored. The Saints go marching in!

This line started at three and has been juiced up heavily as the money comes in on the Colts. As of this writing, you can get the Pats +3 for +105 and by game time we expect this line to be at +3.5. Even at +3 we like the Patriots quite a bit here. Is the public right? Is it Manning's year? Either way it should be a classic matchup, one of many in recent years between Indianapolis and New England. These teams have made the playoffs their home over the last several years, but with much different results. New England has builts a dynasty and has gone on to win three Superbowls while Indianapolis has yet to make an appearance in one. The QB match-up is a contemporary version of Joe Montana vs. Dan Marino. Brady has won three Superbowls, two Superbowl MVP'S, and has posted a 12-1 playoff record. Manning has made seven Pro Bowl appearances and has two MVP's but has yet to get to the big show. And based on the results when these two teams meet in meaningful playoff games, it would appear that Bill Belichick rents space in Manning's head. Manning has thrown just one TD pass and has been picked off five times in two playoff games vs. the Pats. He has not been executing in the playoffs this year either, as he has an identical resume coming in: one TD and five INTs. We mentioned last week that this New England team has allowed the fewest points of any under the Belichick regime. There is something about this team that allows the performance of the team to be greater than the sum of its parts, year after year. Call it the Belichick factor or the Brady presence or whatever. They just over-perform in the most important stats in the end: points scored, points allowed and wins/losses. New England during their great run has always ranked higher in points scored than they do in offensive yards per game. They have always ranked higher in defensive points allowed vs. yards allowed. This year is no exception. Their defense is ranked 5th in yards allowed but 2nd in points. The offense ranks 11th in yards but 7th in points. That is a +7 combined. This means that they manage more points out of fewer yards - a sign of great efficiency. This is one reason, we believe, that people that put heavy weight on yards underestimate this team. The last four years New England has been +52 combined on this makeshift stat on offense (comparing points scored ranking to points ranking). They were +27 on defense. The rest of the playoff teams in the league have averaged +1.75 on offense and +1.06 on defense. Why is New England this much more efficient? Bill Belichick. Let's look at an example. Last week New England faced a critical situation trailing in the game, facing a third down with four yards to go in San Diego territory. Belichick summons Kevin Faulk into the game. New England has a history of bringing in Faulk for these situations to pass block. What does Belichick do? He hands off to Faulk who runs easily for a huge first down. This is just one example of Belichick's mastery and preparedness that oftentimes goes unnoticed. It leads to more points. Many of these small things add up to produce a team that is consistently underestimated - a team that just wins games. There is not a 1,000 yard running back on this team nor is their a 1,000 yard receiver. Then there is Jabar Gaffney. He caught 11 balls all season so Belichick designs ways to get him the ball come playoffs. Gaffney catches 8 balls for 104 vs. the Jets and 10 for 103 against San Diego. What other team even has a shot at taking a nobody and killing you with him. That, along with limiting your biggest strength, is the Belichick factor. The high powered star studded offense of San Diego, with an extra week and home field advantage, wasn't enough to beat New England last week. Here again we get a high profile offense in Indianapolis favored over the Pats. But are the Colts really that high-powered? Indianapolis' offense really wasn't measurably better than New England's this year. New England scored 27.1 ppg on the road while Indianapolis scored 28.9 at home. And the Indianapolis offense has not done nearly that well in the playoffs. They have been held to 18 or less points in seven of their last eleven playoff games. Indianapolis beat the Pats at New England this year 27-20. But that wasn't a playoff game. And, they won by just 7 points despite having a +3 turnover advantage! Belichick is 10-1 ATS revenging a same season upset loss. New England is 11-1 ATS vs. teams that average 7.5+ yards per attempt since 1992, and 6-0 ATS vs teams that allow a 61%+ pass completion percentage. Can they slow down Indianapolis on turf? You bet! The Pats are 7-0 ATS on turf the last three years and they own a 10-1 ATS record at Indy since 1992. Tom Brady is 23-1 straight up on turf in his career and he has never lost a game in a dome (10-0). Some of the players may be different, but two things remain the same here: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Give us points in any meaningful game with New England and we are on them as Belichick is 21-8-1 ATS as an underdog. New England comes out of this one with the money. As we recommended last week, take a long hard look at the money line here which would get you +145 for a Pats straight-up win. We don't expect a shootout here. Indianapolis is 17-5 UNDER vs. top-level teams outscoring opponents by 6+ over the past fifteen years. New England is 7-0 UNDER vs teams that score 24+ points per game over the past three seasons. New England is 15-5 UNDER in their last 20 playoff games and 10 of the last 14 home games for Indianapolis have gone UNDER. This should be a tight lower-scoring game that will come down to intangibles like coaching and "will." Take the better team (New England) with the best defense left in the playoffs and the UNDER.