Football Predictions - January 20, 2008
Fresh off two big upsets in the Divisional Playoffs, we see some large spreads this weekend. Teams that played hard through the last couple of weeks of the regular season (NE, GB, NYG and SD) all remain alive. Meanwhile the teams that laid down and rested players (SEA, TB, DALLAS and IND) are all gone. It will be interesting how this affects coaching decisions late next year.
We looked hard at both games this Sunday and we love one of them - that's where we'll focus our plays. We are making this our Playoffs Game of the Year!
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Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: San Diego at New England (Sunday 1/20 3:00 PM Eastern)
The Chargers are playing their best football of the season right now. The biggest problem they have on Sunday is the injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Three key offensive components are battling fresh injuries (Rivers, Gates and Tomlinson). The Chargers recent surge however has more to do with their defense than their offense. They have allowed just one team to top 20 points in their last eight games, and are allowing just 13 ppg in this stretch. Antonio Cromartie, who didn't start in the first matchup between these teams (38-14 Pats win), has emerged as a Pro Bowler. They come to Foxboro with an eight game winning streak. We must point out they were riding an 11 game winning streak last season and lost to this same Patriots squad. The Patroits played about as good as any team in NFL history through their first 10 games, where they averaged 41.1 ppg. Teams began to make adjustments, taking away the deep threats, which has slowed them. But Brady has been patient, and taking what is given, and the Pats continue to win, but maybe not as impressively. They have gone from the NFL's best ever offense at 41.1 ppg, to a very good offense at 30.4 ppg over their last seven games. The defense has also shown signs of age and decline as the season has progressed as they have allowed 20.1 ppg in the the last seven games. The weather conditions Sunday are going to be a factor. The temperatures will be falling through the teens during the game, with winds gusting over 30 MPH. Not many expected this Chargers group to go in and beat Indy for the second time this season, but they got it done. Does that show that this team is coming of age, or was it just a good match-up with their 3-4 giving Manning problems? They have now won three straight vs the Colts, and dropped the 4th in OT. The Patriots strength is their passing game but San Diego is a perfect 10-0 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that pass for 235+ yards per game and 10-1 ATS this season vs. teams that complete 61%+ of their passes. But, under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 9-1 ATS at home vs. teams at 60%+ SU in late-season play. Did the Pats peak too early, as they have had trouble scoring the way they did earlier? Are teams catching up with this offense? Is the defense aging before our eyes? There are lots of questions to be answered, and many hard to answer. The Chargers are peaking at the right time, but can they do this without Rivers, Gates and LT at 100%? In the same sense, New England on any given Sunday can just overwhelm the opponent, no matter how good. There are too many question marks and we will pass on this one and watch what should be an entertaining game that could go either way.
Game: New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1/20 6:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Green Bay Packers -7 (-115) (risk 5 to win 4.4)Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 39.5 -110
The Giants have caught fire and surprisingly find themselves one win away from the Superbowl. They have now won and covered six of their last seven games and have a chance to be the first team in NFL history to win 10 road games in a season. Yes, the Giants are on a roll, but think about this. So are the Packers! Favre and company are now 18-3 SU and 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games! The Giants have played well, and we won't take that away from them. There is a "but" in all of this however. They lost to New England, but gave them a true run for their money. New England has not been the electric team blowing out everyone in their path for the entire second half of the season. The first half they went 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS but since then, they are 9-0 SU, but 2-7 ATS. You have to agree, the Giants caught New England at a time when they were not performing as optimally as they were earlier on. Then they faced a Tampa Bay team that dropped four of their last five and were certainly not performing at their peak either. Last week the G-Men went to Dallas and beat a Cowboy team that lost three of four, and scored just 49 points in the four games. Prior to the offensive meltdown at the end, the Cowboys hadn't scored less than 49 in any two games the entire season! We give the Giants credit for winning last week but much of that had to do with Dallas playing well below their normal level and losing the game. The Giants had fewer first downs (4 to 9) and fewer yards (57 to 115) in the second half and still managed to win. So, the Giants caught three teams at their lowest points. What on the surface looks like a spectacular three week run for them, is in fact not quite so grand. This will be the first time the Giants face a team that is also clicking, and clicking in a big way. Would you think we are crazy to say that the Packers at their peak are just as good as the Patriots at their peak this season? Well, check this out. New England was destroying all opponents in their first eight wins by an average of 23 ppg. The Packers have quietly done the same thing as in their last eight wins they have won by an average of 20 ppg! The Pack remain a bit under the radar. Green Bay was good early in the season, but it changed when Ryan Grant became the featured back. The Packers' biggest weakness all of a sudden became their biggest strength. Grant finsihed the second half as the #2 running back in the NFL, behind Tomlinson. The Giants have another concern. Eli Manning was recently quoted as saying how he hates playing in cold weather. He has not started in a game with a temperatue below freezing since 2005 and he has only done this twice in his career. His numbers in those two game are 31-68 45.6%, 313 yards, 0 TDs, and 3 INTs. Uh oh! Brett Favre has played in three games this season at Lambeau with a temperature below freezing and has gone 42-67 62.7% for 538 yards, 7 TDs, and one INT. The Packers have the best offensive line in football and Favre has only been dropped 19 times all season. The Cowboys offensive line opened huge holes for Barber against the Giant defensive line, racking up over 100 yards in the first half. They wilted midway through the 3rd quarter, as did Barber go got 27 carries (only carried 20+ once all season). That won't happen in Green Bay. Many feel the cold will help the Giants, as they have a league leading 4.6 ypc average. But since the emergence of Grant, the Packers have been getting 5.1 ypc, so they have been even better! Once you give the running edge to Green Bay, what edge is left for New York? Not a thing! Green Bay has every single advantage, on both sides of the ball. The Packers have allowed just 11.4 ppg at Lambeau since Grant started carrying the ball at mid-season. The Giants are playing well, but for the first time in their run, they will be facing a team that is also on a roll and playing at even a higher level. They will be facing a clearly superior football team in very rough conditions. In the second half of the season, when the games get meaningful and the weather turns cold, the Pack are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. winning teams. Let's make it 23-7.
The conditions in Green Bay call for an initial game time temperature of 2 degrees, falling below zero quickly, with windchills well below 0. We have researched the coldest games in NFL history, and here is what we found:
The Ice Bowl in GB on 12-31-67 Temp: -13 Wind chill: -48. Total points scored: 38
1-12-82 @ CINN Temp: -9 Wind chill: -59. Total points scored: 34
1-7-96 @ KC Temp -6 (five of six FGs missed). Total points: 17
1-4-81 @ CLEVE Temp: -5. Total points: 26
12-3-72 @ MINN Temp: -2. wind chill: -26 Total points: 33
12-10-72 @ MINN Temp: 0. Wind chill: -18 Total points: 30
12-26-93 @ GB Temp: 0. Total points: 28
1-20-08 @ GB Temp: below zero for most of game with wind chill: from -5 to -17
The seven coldest games in NFL history have never exceeded 38 points. The average points scored in these games was just 29.4. The total is still at 39.5, and we suggest you play the UNDER here, as not one of these games has ever gone over 38 points scored.
Game: New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1/20 6:35 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Green Bay Packers -330 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 1.5)
We really love the Packers here so we'll go with them on the moneyline as well. Explosive home teams that score 24+ points per game, coming off a high scoring game (60+ points), are 45-6 straight-up over the past five seasons including 8-1 this year. Road underdogs revenging a 14+ point same-season loss are just 9-68 straight up if coming off an upset win as the Giants are here. We love the Packers in a blowout so we'll also take them to win straight-up as we think the chances they lose this game are extremely low.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-January-08-2008
In the Wildcard round, Seattle looked to have Washington put away, leading 13-0 going into the fourth quarter but in a flash the Seahawks were trailing 14-13. To their credit, they were able to o...
NFL-Football-Picks-January-04-2008
There is a lot of buzz surrounding the hot Redskins right now as they closed the season with four straight wins to earn the final Wildcard slot. The public has certainly bought into this team, bu...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-28-2007
Why in the world would Cincinnati even show up for this game? They played their Superbowl last week. We were on the Bengals in part because they have a heated rivalry with Cleveland, and anything they...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-24-2007
This is virtually a meaningless game for both teams. Denver, at 6-8, has been eliminated from the playoffs. San Diego has clinched the West. So we turn to motivation and goals. Who has a motivati...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-22-2007
The Giants started the season 0-2 but then reeled off six straight wins. Again, they looked like they were headed for the playoffs. Then, as has been their history under Tom Coughlin, they seemed to q...
