4-3 in playoffs

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NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: New Orleans at Chicago (Sunday 1/21 3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: New Orleans +3

These teams were the favorites to get to this round, unlike the AFC where the top 2 teams both got knocked off. New Orleans has been a great story. The season began with the Saints homeless, and apparently heading nowhere. The added ingredients were reggie Bush, and Drew Brees, and suddenly the Saints produced the top rated offense in the NFL. Chicago had a defense that was begging for at least an average offense to take them to the next level. The season began with everything firing for the Bears. Grossman came out firing, the defense was stopping everyone cold. The story has changed dramatically for the Bears. The last 9 games the Bears have gone from giving up 9.9ppg to 20.7ppg. The offense has gone from scoring 31.6ppg, to scoring 22.9ppg. They have lost 10 points on offense and 11 on defense. They have gone from the best on both sides of the ball to average on both sides of the ball. It is a defense that has gotten progressively worse! The last 5 games they have given up 26ppg. The most startling stat of all is they have yielded an NFL worst 15 of 23 red-zone possessions for TD'S. The Bears have yielded 374.6 yards a game over their last 5 games, which would put them dead last in the entire NFL. This is to offenses that rank 29,22,19,9, and 6. The only 2 offenses you see there in the top 10, GB and STL gained an average of 420 yards a game against the Bears. Then there is the issue with Grossman. Do we see the good Grossman, or do we see the bad Grossman. The bad Grossman means this is a New Orleans blowout win. The good Grossman means we have a competitive game. The next question is both coaches nightmare, Devin Hester. He has 6 returns for TD'S, but he has double digit fumbles, and has had 3 games where he has fumbled at least 3 times. Does the game turn on a return, or does it turn on a fumble. The only thing we can add, is he has fumbled twice as many times as he has returned for scores, so the odds favor a turn on a fumble. New Orleans is led by their offense, but don't discount the defense. They give up 12 yards a game less than the Bears. If you look at recent stats, as we pointed out above, their defense is better than the Bears. Brees has thrown for over 4,000 yards with 26 TD'S and 11 INT'S. McAllister is running healthy again, and Reggie Bush caught 89 balls, and is a game-breaker, as is Devery Henderson who averages over 23 yards a catch. The Saints can drive the field, but also have quick strike capacity, as Brees has completed 5 passes for 70+ yards, and believe it or not have 7 players that have caught one for over 40 yards, and 11 that have caught one for over 20. The Bears could not stop a #19 ranked Seattle offense at home, and allowed them 3-3 in the red-zone. They have shown against better offenses recently in GB and STL that they averaged giving up 420 yards a game to, that the defense is not anything like it was. They rank #9, but in the last 5 rank #32. Now they must stop the best there is in the NFL. That puts pressure on Grossman, and the Bears offense to match scores, and it is a game they will be hard pressed to win. The Saints go marching in!

here we are again Indianapolis and New England.  These teams have made the playoffs their home over the last several years, but with much different results. new England has gone on to win 3 Superbowls, and Indianapolis has yet to make an appearance in one. The QB match-up is a contemporary version of Joe Montana, and Dan Marino. Brady has won 3 Superbowls, 2 Superbowl MVP'S, and carries a 12-1 playoff record. Manning has made 7 Pro Bowl appearances and has 2 MVP'S, but has yet to get to the big show. it would appear that Bill Belichick rents space in Manning's head. he has thrown just 1 TD pass and has been picked off 5 times in 2 playoff games vs the Pats. Manning has not been executing in the playoffs this year either, as he has identical 1 TD and 5 INT stats. We mentioned this before last week's game, and the fact is this New England team has allowed the fewest points of any under the Belichick regime. There is something about this team where the performance of the team is greater than the sum of its parts, year after year. New England always ranks higher in points scored, than they do in offensive yards per game. They always rank higher in defensive points allowed vs yards allowed. This year the defense is ranked 5th in yards allowed, but 2nd in points. The offense ranks 11th in yards, but 7th in points. That is a +7 on both sides of the ball. The last 4 years NE has been +52 on offense comparing points scored ranking to points ranking, and +27 on defense. The rest of the playoff teams in the league have averaged +1.75 on offense, and +1.06 on defense. This is the impact of two things. Brady and Belichick. Last week NE faced a critical situation trailing in the game, and faced a 3rd and 4 in SD territory. belichick summons Kevin Faulk into the game. NE always brings Faulk in for these situations to pass block. What does Belichick do? He hands off to Faulk, who runs easily for a 1st down. There is not a 1,000 yard running back on this team, nor is their a 1,000 yard receiver. Then there is Jabar Gaffney. He caught 11 balls all season, so Belichick designs ways to get him the ball. He catches 8 balls for 104 vs the Jets, and 10 for 103 against SD. That is the Brady/Belichick factor. The high powered, star studded offense of Indianapolis outscored the New England offense by very little. NE scored 27.1ppg on the road, Indianapolis scored 28.9 at home. The Indianapolis offense has not translated well in the playoffs. The last 11 appearances they have been held to 18 or less points in 7 of the games. Indianapolis beat NE at New England this year 27-20. They won by just 7 even having a +3 turnover advantage. Belichick is 10-1 ATS revenging a same season upset loss. New England is 11-1 ATS vs teams that average 7.5+ yds. per attempt since '92, and 6-0 ATS vs teams that allow a 61%+ pass completion percentage. Can they slowdown Indianapolis on turf? They are 7-0 ATS on turf the last 3 years, and own a 10-1 ATS record at Indy since '92. The setting, some of the players may be different, but two things remain the same, Brady and Belichick. Give us points in any game with NE and we are on them, as Belichick is 21-8-1 ATS as an underdog. New England comes out of this one with the money!