Nfl Game Predictions - January 17, 2010
Ouch. Sorry about last week. After a 66% run in the second half of the season, and a 71% hit rate last year in the playoffs, I never expected in a million years to do as poorly as I did last weekend. I apologize and I'm looking forward to turning that around this weekend. I've got four picks for the Divisional Playoffs...
| WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| NFL |
41-27 last 68 picks |
60% | +$3270 |
| CFB |
25-10 last 35 picks |
71% | +$6040 |
| MLB |
265-219 last 484 picks |
55% | +$8370 |
| CBB |
100-68 last 168 picks |
60% | +$9470 |
| NHL |
207-135 last 342 picks |
61% | +$14860 |
| WNBA |
121-90 last 211 picks |
57% | +$5490 |
| TOTAL | | | +$47500 |
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Arizona at New Orleans (Saturday 1/16 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arizona +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
New Orleans was an incredible team early in the season. They started 13-0 and were putting up numbers that rivaled the 2007 New England Patriots. But they simply peaked too soon. This team hung a 40 spot on four of their first six opponents, but didn't touch 40 the rest of the season. Their ensuing six games saw them in the 30s on five occasions as well, but since week 13, they have failed to even get to 27 over the last four weeks. The troubles actually started sooner than most think. After week six, the Saints went just 2-8 ATS! This is an offense that was lethal early in the season, but fell off after the mid-point in the season and dramatically in the last quarter of the season. Now, they must try to put it together after three weeks of not having any competitive action. The Arizona Cardinals are looking more and more like one of those teams that can flip the switch. They seem to fall asleep during the season in an easy division, but now two years in a row they have risen vs. the top teams. We saw it in the regular season a year ago at home vs. Dallas, and we saw it this year vs. Minnesota. Everyone is aware of what they did in the playoffs last year, and they did it again vs. Green Bay last week in what was the trap game of the week. The Cards are sensational underdogs as they are now a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 posted in that role, and an even more amazing 8-2 straight-up as well! They have the experience and certainly have proven they can win playoffs games on the road, while the Saints have all the question marks here. Kurt Warner is as good as it comes in crunch time so there is no reason why he can't outperform the mighty Drew Brees here. The Cardinals will be playing the no-respect card as they did last week and I think it pays off. The Cards are 6-2 on the road this season, giving up just 17 points per game and they are 15-6 ATS now the past three seasons vs. winning teams including 8-1 ATS vs. the cream of the crop (teams at .750 or better). Give me the Cardinals and the points here.
Game: Dallas at Minnesota (Sunday 1/17 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -2.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Cowboys have caught the attention of everyone with two shutouts to close the season, four straight wins overall, and a dismantling of the Eagles last week. The defense is playing as well as ever and Tony Romo appears to be out of his late-season funk of previous years. So what has happened is that this line is squeezed by the recent Cowboy surge. Right now, there's a lot of people that believe the Cowboys are a better team than the Vikings. I am not one of them. The reality is that Minnesota won more games when they counted, they averaged nearly a TD more per game on offense than Dallas and they are playing with rest at home. Dallas has a great running game and a great QB. But doesn't Minnesota have the same? A lot is made of the Vikings’ apparent late collapse as they lost to Carolina, Arizona and Chicago. The problem is that the Vikings had little incentive in those games, and it is heavily weighted into the line here. The Vikings are 8-0 at home and that was a mark established with all meaningful games. When the games meant something to the Vikings, they won each of their last five home games by 17 points or more! The average in the five games was 24.8 points per game. I'll gladly take a team that is unbeaten at home that is giving points to a team that is less than the established amount of three points for home-field advantage. This is not a happy place for Dallas as their last four trips to the Metrodome have resulted in a 0-4 ATS mark. The Cowboys have not been a good turf team as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four on artificial surfaces. Teams that faced a division rival in the playoffs are 7-13 ATS the following week and Dallas just had back-to-backs with a division rival which sometimes makes it tougher to match the intensity of a team taking to the field for the first time in the post-season. Dallas is getting a lot of play with their defense, but how about the Vikings’ defense at home? Over the second half of the season, in their last four home games the Vikings have allowed 9 ppg, just 10.5 first downs per game, and opponents have rushed for 201 yards on 60 carries, or 3.35 per rush. Passing, the opponents have totaled 571 yards, time of possession is just 22 minutes per game, with none of the four teams topping 215 yards of offense. I think that more than matches what Dallas has done, and I love that their defense is getting all the attention because the Vikings’ defensive numbers at home are far superior. Dallas has had a tremendous run, but playing yet another peak-level game here in Minnesota against Favre and the Vikings seems unlikely to me. The Vikings are 20-4 as a home favorite under Brad Childress and this is a small number to cover. I like the Vikings here.
Game: New York Jets at San Diego (Sunday 1/17 4:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on New York Jets +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The San Diego Chargers are getting all the talk as a Super Bowl team, and they very well may achieve that goal. They have been on a tear, coming into the playoffs as the hottest team with 11 straight wins. Yes the Chargers have certainly looked great, and it is hard to argue with 11 straight wins, but taking a closer look, this team is not bullet-proof. Four of the last five wins have come by 7 points or less, and three of those were decided by a FG. So, is this line really correct? This is a great matchup for the Jets, who have struggled at times vs. the run, but won't have to worry here as San Diego is the second worst running team in the NFL. That will make a very strong Jets’ defense even stronger. This team played four games this season vs. teams in the bottom 12 in rushing yards per game. Those teams were Oakland, Indianapolis, Houston and Tampa Bay. Two good offensive teams and two suspect offensive teams. The Jets thrived versus the one-dimensional nature of all four of those offenses as they outscored the four teams 117-25! The Jets have the best shutdown corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis, and Tito Sheppard adds more strength. If history holds, Vincent Jackson, who contributed 1167 yards and 9 touchdowns this season, will be held down by Revis. Without a running game, that will leave Rivers with Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd as weapons through the air. Gates is certainly a threat, but Floyd managed just one touchdown all season. This Jets' defense can really put a hurt on an offense. On the season, they were No. 1 in the league at 14.8 points per game allowed and No. 1 in yards allowed at 252.3 per game. In their last seven games, the Jets have held opponents to just 8.7 points per game. Combine that with the league's best running game and you wonder why the Jets didn't win more games this season. The answer is that they have a rookie QB. But, lately, Sanchez seems to have settled into his role and is reducing mistakes. If he plays like that, this team has a chance to beat any team in the league. The Chargers finished the season at 8-7-1 ATS. Here is a big eye-opener. When they faced teams that are ranked No. 13 or worse in passing yards allowed per game, they were 7-2 ATS. When they faced teams that were ranked in the top 10 pass efenses, they were 1-5-1 ATS! This is a bad matchup for the Chargers and a very good one for the Jets. I like New York here.
Game: New York Jets at San Diego (Sunday 1/17 4:45 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on New York Jets +250 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 5)
The oddsmakers and public view this as a mis-match in favor of the Chargers. I see a matchup that is much closer. The Jets own the best defense in the league as measured by both yards and points allowed. Their pass defense is especially tough thanks to Darrelle Revis. This team held opponents to just 153.7 yards per game in the air. The next closes team was 184.3. Why is this important? The matchup here. San Diego has the second worst running game in the league and they rely on the pass to win games. They are now facing the single worst matchup for them - a team that is tops in the league in overall defense and pass defense and a team that kept their last seven opponents to an average of just 8.7 points per game. The Jets own as many road wins (6) this season as San Diego owns at home. Why can't New York, a team brimming with confidence, win this game? The Jets own the best running game in the league at 172 yards per game. They gained 50 rushing yards per game more on average than their opponents typically allowed this season. The Chargers gave up 118 per game on the ground this year so it's very feasible to see New York rushing for 125+ yards in this game. If they do, that's a great sign as they are a perfect 6-0 in games in which they have done that this season. Since last season, New York is 6-0 straight-up as a road underdog of +230 or more. I think the Jets have a decent shot at the upset here and as such, I'll back them on the moneyline.
Results: 3-1
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-January-08-2010
The Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo finally ended the incessant talk of their annual December demise. They won their last three games by a combined score of 65-17. They finished the season with...
NFL-Football-Picks-January-01-2010
The Indianapolis Colts upset their fans when they took out Peyton Manning in the third quarter last week, spoiling the opportunity for a perfect season. While you can make a case for it, I think it wa...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-24-2009
Wrong team favored. The Tennessee Titans, after an 0-6 start, have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. But, the San Diego Chargers are playing better than any team in the NFL right now including the C...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-21-2009
Sometimes our human brains can fail us. We fall into the trap of putting a label on a team and then not budging, despite evidence to the contrary. The Redskins are the team no one wants to touch. But ...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-18-2009
The expected shootout between Dallas and San Diego never materialized last week and we cashed on the UNDER in that one. I'm again going to fade the expected high-scoring outcome here. It seems as ...
