Football Betting Prediction - January 11, 2009

We posted our 13th winning week out of the last 15 last weeks with a 2-0 performance in the Wild Card round, winning with both Baltimore and Philadelphia. Over that stretch we are 69-42 (62%) for +73.6 units (and 8-5 on our season win total picks). This weekend we again go with two picks...

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Baltimore at Tennessee (Saturday 1/10 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

It's easy to look at the numbers of Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco and say he will be overmatched here by the Titans defense. To some degree, in their early season matchup, he was. However, back then in his fourth NFL game, he was overwhelmed by all comers. On the season, Flacco had just 14 TD passes and 12 INTs - numbers that don't look inspire a lot of confidence on the road in the Divisional round of the playoffs. But as is often the case, a closer examination is telling. The Ravens who were 5-11 last season, started this year 2-3 as the rookie QB took his lumps. But Flacco matured quickly as the season progressed and as a result, this team has since gone 10-2. Flacco's numbers tell a good part of the story. He threw just one touchdown pass in his first five games along with seven interceptions. Since then he has thrown 13 TD passes to only five INTs. The Ravens lost just two of those games, and one was a controversial ending against the Steelers in a last minute TD that was up for debate. Flacco isn't the entire story with the Ravens as we know. Their defense is one of the best and most productive in the league. They have been tough all season, but over the last seven weeks of the season, when playoff fate is determined, they have stepped it up even more. Baltimore has allowed just 73 points over that stretch (10.4 per game). And consider that 17 of those 73 points came in the last six minutes of the 4th quarter vs. the Cowboys in a game that they were in control of. None of the other six teams put the ball in the end-zone more than once. The Titans have been pretty tight in sealing off the endzone themselves. Just two teams the entire season managed to top the 17-point mark vs. Tennessee and one of those was in week 17 when the Colts scored 23 against the Titans reserves. The Ravens are a better team now than the team that lost to the Titans early on. They are peaking now. On the flipside, the Titans have slipped after their 10-0 start to finish on a 3-3 run. That first meeting was lost by the Ravens on a bad roughing-the-QB call that allowed the Titans to go in for the winning score. The Ravens ran for over 100 yards that game, while the Titans managed just 48 yards on 21 attempts. The Ravens were also 7-for-14 converting 3rd downs. With the Ravens offense clicking, I think Baltimore moves the ball in this one. There is also the age old question of whether it is wise to rest starters before a playoff game to avoid injury. The answer to that is fairly simple in my mind - it shouldn't be done. Last year the Giants played hard for a win in New England at the end of the regular season in a meaningless game. How did it turn out for them in the playoffs and Super Bowl? Teams that have rested their starters in week 17 have struggled mightily in the playoffs in recent years. Since 2005 these teams are a miserable 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the playoffs, and the list includes two straight-up losses by double-digit favorites. These teams that went 3-5 SU were favored in seven of the eight games. Baltimore is probably the hottest team left in the playoffs, and the Tennessee starters haven't seen action since December 21st. I like the Ravens here.

Back at the beginning of the season, I picked the Eagles to contend for the NFC East title and to come out ahead of the Giants. Early in the season it became clear that something was wrong with Philly as they struggled to a 2-3 start. But they finished 7-4. I picked them in week 16 and again last week. I'm not done with them yet. The fact is, this team is much better than their record indicates. A VERY good team simmers under the surface. When healthy, this team can beat anyone. Donovan McNabb has had an odd year. He found himself benched for a bit during mid-season, but came back strong. In some ways it mirrors the year that last year's Super Bowl QB had. Eli Manning was getting booed at midseason last year but then turned things around and became an instant classic and Super Bowl hero. There has been nothing odd about Donovan's play vs. the Giants, which has been vintage McNabb. The two games vs. the G-men this season have seen McNabb go 36-66 for 385 yards with four touchdowns and only one pick. The Eagles beat the Giants in New York after losing in Philly earlier in the season. One of the main reasons for the Giants' loss was the absence of Plaxico Burress. Burress has been a one man wrecking crew for the Eagles, and now without having to focus so much attention on him, the Eagles have been able to shift their focus to other areas of the Giants offense. Eli Manning was just 13-for-27 for a mere 123 yards in the return match without Burress, while the Giants strong running attack was held to just 100 yards. These teams know each other very well, and this is a heated rivalry. That leads to a very intense game, and games that are usually played very tightly and close. The last time these teams met in the playoffs, the game was decided by 3 points. Overall in their last nine meetings, six games were decided by 6 points or less and two games went to OT. There was a time when getting the bye in the first round of the playoffs was considered a panacea. The rest at this time of the year was deemed to be a huge benefit. My how things have changed! Playoff teams coming off of a bye have been brutal ATS with just a 6-14 ATS mark in the last 20 games going back to 2003. It's been even worse lately at just 3-9 ATS since 2005! The Eagles look a lot like the Giants last year down the stretch. The Giants struggled for much of the season, but then caught fire, and began to look like the best team in the league come playoff time. They ultimately were, as they won the Superbowl beating an undefeated team. This season, the Eagles needed a miracle in week 17 to even be here, but it breathed new life in them as they demolished the Cowboys 44-6. They then went to Minnesota and beat up the Vikings in their house. Right now the Eagles are very hot. These games are close, and the Giants are not playing the same right now, as they closed the season 1-3 after an 11-1 start. Getting more than a field goal is important here as the points may loom large , and I will back the Eagles to at the very least stay close.

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated football against-the-spread records.
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• Check out nfl picks week eleven here.
• Here we show our nfl week ten picks.
• Check out nfl picks week nine here.
• Read our nfl week eight picks here.
• Hop over to our nfl week seven picks here.
• Take a look at our nfl picks week six here.
• Read our nfl week five picks here.
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• Check out our updated nfl week 2 picks.
• View our updated nfl week one picks.
• Hop over to our football betting prediction here.
• Here we show our football picks blog.
• Check out sports betting football here.
• View our updated football handicapping service.
• View 2008 football prior picks here.
• Check out nfl expert pick here.
• View our updated nfl week 16 picks.
• Check out our updated 2008 NFL season win predictions.
• Don't forget to visit our How we pick NFL winners.
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• Check out our updated Superbowl picks.
• Check out nfl week 15 picks here.
• Hop over to our NFL playoffs betting here.
• Here we show our nfl conficdence pool picks.
• View our updated NFL Football Game-of-Week-Preview.
• Check out NFL game previews here.
• Check out our updated nfl picks week 17.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-January-02-2009
The Dolphins used the Wildcat offense to get to the playoffs. Starting with their game against New England, this offense caught many off guard and it led to more wins than expected this season. But, t...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-26-2008
Since the Bengals lost Carson Palmer, the offense hasn't been able to do anything the entire season. There may even be some evidence it has regressed. They have managed 10.5 ppg in their last six ...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-22-2008
The Bears have renewed playoff hopes thanks to the Vikings loss yesterday, giving folks an easy reason to back them tonight laying a small number vs. a 5-9 team. But the fact that they needed that Min...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-19-2008
The Lions are running out of time as they enter this one with a 0-14 record. They stand to become the only team that will forever be entrenched in the NFL record books for absolute futility. It certai...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-19-2008
A crucial inter-conference matchup takes place in Dallas when the 9-5 Ravens visit the 9-5 Cowboys with Wildcard hopes on the line. The Ravens have really exerted themselves on the defensive side of t...