Nfl Picks Super Bowl Odds - January 10, 2010

We enter the NFL playoffs having gone 41-21 (66%) over the last seven weeks of the season. On the year, we are up 20 units. Last season I hit 71% on my playoffs picks so I am happy to see the playyoffs begin. It's been a great run for us overall this year. Here are six reasons to stick with Wunderdog after the NFL season finishes up:

1. We closed out a winning College Football season, capped off by 21-8 (72%) for +56 units performance in the Bowls.

2. In the month of December, we went 221-145 (60%) for +201.4 units across all sports.

3. We are in the midst of our best-ever NHL season hitting 59% overall for +128 units thus far.

4. We are coming off our best-ever NBA, MLB and WNBA seasons ever in 2008.

5. 2009 NBA and CBB winning - NBA on a 58% run over the past month and college basketball 65% run over the past month.

6. Over the past nine months, Wunderdog subscribers who started with $10,000 bankroll now have $41,900 in the coffers. We have quadrupled subscribers bankrolls over the past nine months using an extremely conservative 1% of bankroll betting process.

Thanks for being a part of our historic run. On to the Wildcard weekend picks. I have six picks including a 5-unit and an underdog moneyline upset pick. Good luck!

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	44-28 last 72 picks	61%	+$4090
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	265-219 last 484 picks	55%	+$8370
CBB	116-90 last 206 picks	56%	+$6640
NHL	230-149 last 379 picks	61%	+$17300
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$47930

Today's NFL Football Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at Dallas (Saturday 1/09 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Philadelphia +4 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 45 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo finally ended the incessant talk of their annual December demise. They won their last three games by a combined score of 65-17. They finished the season with an exclamation point, ending New Orleans' run at a winning season, shutting out the Redskins, and dismantling this Eagles team 24-0 last week. The Cowboys swept the Eagles during the regular season, and they are playing as well as anyone. How can they possibly lose here? It certainly is a difficult task to beat an opponent three times in the same season, especially when the teams are on equal footing. This is a new season, and one in which the Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo have had no success to build on. While overall  the Eagles looked bad last week, there were a couple things that happened in that last matchup that gives Philly backers something to hang their hat on. McNabb overthrew a sure TD pass to DeSean Jackson, and threw another behind Maclin. What could of been two huge plays that could have changed the game turned into nothing. The Eagles seem to play their best football when their doubters grow in numbers, and that is the case after their whitewash in Big D last week. McNabb has been at his best after a loss where he is 24-12 ATS in his last 36, and the Eagles are 64-39 ATS against NFC opponents in their last 103 games. Nothing is more motivating to a team than being shutout, so I expect Philadelphia will bring an emotional edge into this game. The Dallas defense is playing at a high level, but the offense has scored just 18 points per game over the last eight weeks. The Eagles can score in bunches and if they get going here, Dallas offense may struggle to keep up. The Eagles are 18-9 ATS vs. conference foes the past two seasons and 51-27 ATS in their last 78 games seeking revenge. That includes a 14-4 ATS mark on the road revenging a road loss. They are also 18-4 ATS in their last 22 following a loss by 21+ points. With Andy Reid at the helm, Philly 59-35 ATS on the road and 46-26 ATS as an underdog including 26-12 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also 41-24 ATS under Reid following a loss. Philly is just as good as Dallas and thanks to the outcome from last game, I feel they have the emotional edge here so I'll back them to keep this close. I also like the UNDER. If history holds, this game is going to tight and low scoring as four of the last five meetings in Dallas have failed to reach the total. While going 6-2 OVER at home, Philly is 4-4 O/U on the road and Dallas is 5-3 UNDER this season at home and 4-2 UNDER in division games. The Eagles are 13-4 UNDER in their last 17 revenging a loss by 14+ points. They are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 when coming off a double-digit loss. And, under Andy Reid, they are 23-13 UNDER on the road vs. division foes. After losing by 24 last game, I expect a renewed defensive effort by the Eagles. I like the Eagles in a tight, low-scoring game.

I like the Eagles to win this game. It is extremely difficult to dispose of an equally good opponent three straight times in the same season. Couple that with a situation that shows teams that are revenging a 14-point or larger loss to an opponent at 27-3 ATS the last five years, you can expect the Eagles to be in this game here. There is also a signature for an upset team in the Wildcard round that applies to the Eagles here. Road teams that score more points per game than their opponent in the Wildcard round have gone 7-1 straight up since the 2003 season, and that is active on the Eagles here. The Eagles have fone 13-4 straight-up the last 17 times they have lost their last game by 14+ points on the road. I expect Philadelphia to come out focused and breathing fire while Dallas may be a bit overconfident after the way they finished the regular season and after beating the Eagles by 24 last game.

The New England Patriots once again find themselves playing in January, and once again playing host. Despite winning 11 games last season with a backup quarterback, they missed the playoffs. As a result you can bet they are pumped to be here and will be looking to make the most of it. And unlike the last time they were here, they have something to prove in 2009. They aren't getting the respect they have gotten in years past, as shown by this line and the lack of media attention. By some accounts, they don't deserve it as they posted what looks to be a good, but not great, season. They went 10-6 and never seemed to be among the league's elite as the attention went to Indy, New Orleans, San Diego and Minnesota. But, let's l ook a bit deeper. New England's six losses this season came to some pretty good teams, or teams playing very well. They lost to Denver early on when the Broncos were playing very good football and in the midst of their 6-0 run. They lost to an Indianapolis team that could have gone 16-0 this season if they so chose. They lost to a 13-3 New Orleans team as well and posted a fairly meaningless loss to Houston at the end of the year. They didn't have any really embarrasing losses on the year, and most importantly, they really took care of business at home. More on that in a minute. Some will point to the loss of Wes Welker as a problem here. As good Welker he is, this offense is more systematic than player-dependent. Julian Edelman, in less than a full game last week, came in to grab 10 passes for 103 yards. He also performed very well when we filled in for Welker earlier in the season. He's a dropoff, but not enough to make a huge difference. If this game were in Baltimore, I might like the Ravens. But it's in Foxboro and that is very important. At home this season New England was an absolute juggernaut. They went 8-0, outscoring opponents 31 to 13 in the process. That's a margin of 18 points per game. The last time they lost at home with Tom Brady under center was 24 games ago, on November 12, 2006! Let's not forget who we are backing here. This team still has Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Randy Moss playing at home. In years past, that would command a TD+ line but we lay only a field goal here against a team that was 3-5 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road this season! Baltimore was actually outscored by their opponents on the road in 2009. Why so much respect here? The Ravens are tough against the run, but are vulnerable to the type of air attack they will face here. The Ravens faced six top QBs this season in Phillip Rivers, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Big Ben. They lost five of the six games, including the last five straight. The Pats usually win the games they are supposed to. Over the past fifteen years, they are 23-5 ATS vs. teams at .500 to .600. They are also 22-10 ATS over that span at home vs. good defenses (those allowing 17 or fewer points per game). With "The Hoody" in charge, this team is 67-53 ATS as a favorite and 30-16 ATS when coming off a loss as they are here. I like the Pats to get it done and win and cover. I also like the UNDER. The weather is never warm in December in Foxboro, and it will be cold and windy for this game. There have been eight playoff games played here this decade, and the totals mark sits at 6-1-1 to the UNDER. The average points scored in the eight games has been 36. I don't expect this one to get past 40 either. Six of the eight games have failed to get past 38, and five of the eight have failed to get over 33 points. On a another note, the Pats have now played 11-2-1 UNDER in their last 14 playoff games at home and they are 10-5-1 UNDER overall this season. Under Belichick, the Patrios are 18-5 UNDER after the mid-way point in the season vs. teams that average 24+ points per game (he finds ways to take away an offense's strength). I'm going with New England and the UNDER here.

The Green Bay Packers are known for their offense with Aaron Rodgers leading the way to an offense that scored 29 points per game this season (39 per game over their last three). But, their true signature this season has been on the defensive side. Sure, the Packers have had superbsuccess offensively, but it is the defense that ranks on top of the league producing +1.5 turnovers per game and ranking No. 1 against the run in both yards per carry and yards per game. In their final six games of the season, the Pack allowed more than 14 points just one time. In the second half of the season, they held Dallas to 7 points, Baltimore to 14 and Arizona to 7. The Cardinals are also known as an offensive team behind Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin. But, they allow a below league average of 20 points per game. Their offense meanwhile has been very mediocre this year, scoring only 21.7 points per game at home. You can bet that after giving up 33 to this Packers team a week ago, the Cards have spent the week focusing on how to change that here. They simply won't play the same and a similar outcome is not what you should expect. What isn't visible in the overall defensive numbers is the fact that the Cards are a top 10 defense in terms of opponents QB rating against them. Outside of the season finale vs. this same Green Bay team where the Cards rested players and played passionless in a meaningless game, they have faced three good offenses since week two. They held the Titans to 20, the Giants to 17 and the Vikings to 17. The Packers held half of the teams on their schedule to 14 points or less and ten to 17 or less. The Cards come into this one having played six of their last seven overall to the UNDER. Last year’s team topped 30 on 10 different occasions, while this year just six times. It is doubtful they get to 30 in this one and this season, when they have failed to get to 30, the UNDER is 9-1. I like this one to stay UNDER the posted total.

NFL Football Picks Resources:

• Read our week 7 nfl picks here.
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• View our updated football handicapping services.
• Check out our updated nfl week eleven picks.
• View our updated week 12 nfl picks.
• Here we show our NFL matchups.
• Check out our updated nfl week one picks.
• Here we show our nfl picks week nine .
• View our updated week ten nfl picks.
• Take a look at our 2009 NFL team win totals here.
• View our updated week 13 nfl picks.
• Take a look at our 2009 NFL picks season results here.
• Read our NFL Football Game-of-Week Analysis here.
• Take a look at our nfl sportsbook here.
• Updated today: Why to bet NFL underdogs.
• Hop over to our nfl picks week fourteen here.
• Don't forget to visit our pool football picks sheet .
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• Here we show our nfl picks week five .
• View NFL playoffs betting guide here.
• Updated today: Football odds.
• Take a look at our nfl picks week three here.
• Here we show our free football handicapping.
• View our nfl picks week 17 here.
• Don't forget to visit our nfl week 15 picks.
• Check out our updated nfl picks week sixteen .
• Updated today: Superbowl picks.

Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:

NFL-Football-Picks-January-15-2010
New Orleans was an incredible team early in the season. They started 13-0 and were putting up numbers that rivaled the 2007 New England Patriots. But they simply peaked too soon. This team hung a 40 s...

NFL-Football-Picks-January-01-2010
The Indianapolis Colts upset their fans when they took out Peyton Manning in the third quarter last week, spoiling the opportunity for a perfect season. While you can make a case for it, I think it wa...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-24-2009
Wrong team favored. The Tennessee Titans, after an 0-6 start, have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. But, the San Diego Chargers are playing better than any team in the NFL right now including the C...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-21-2009
Sometimes our human brains can fail us. We fall into the trap of putting a label on a team and then not budging, despite evidence to the contrary. The Redskins are the team no one wants to touch. But ...

NFL-Football-Picks-December-18-2009
The expected shootout between Dallas and San Diego never materialized last week and we cashed on the UNDER in that one. I'm again going to fade the expected high-scoring outcome here. It seems as ...