Nflpick - January 13, 2008
We opened the playoffs with a 60% performance. Only a 36-point fourth quarter (including two defensive TDs) in the Seahawks-Redskins game kept us from going 4-1. We're hitting 58% the past four weeks for +21.5 units. We have six total plays for round two as well as our article on betting the NFL playoffs.
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Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Seattle at Green Bay (Saturday 1/12 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Green Bay -8 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 42 -110
In the Wildcard round, Seattle looked to have Washington put away, leading 13-0 going into the fourth quarter but in a flash the Seahawks were trailing 14-13. To their credit, they were able to overcome their sloppy play at home to notch a big win. Seattle ended up 8-1 at home this season after that victory, but this team has really struggled on the road (3-5). The Seahawks this season owned the #19 rated pass defense, not very goods. What makes that worse is that they played 9 of 16 games vs offenses that were ranked 22nd or lower! Any time they played a team that even had a somewhat competent offense, they gave up 24, 33 and 28 points vs teams in the top 10. They also allowed 21, 21 and 23 vs teams in just the top half of the league. They did not have a single game where their defense held an opponent to under 21 points vs an average offense or better! Here they go up against a Green Bay team with a great offense that has averaged 30.4 ppg over the last nine weeks. The upgrade to what was a good offense was based on finally having a running back in Ryan Grant who almost broke 1,000 yards in less than 200 carries. The Seahawks do not have a running game at all, and the Packers can get after the QB. But most importantly, the Pack are the 3rd best team in the NFL at stopping teams on third down, a position Seattle may find itself in often. The Seahawks thrive by putting pressure on the QB. They ate up an unprepared Todd Collins last week. But Favre has been sacked just 19 times all season, and that puts a lot of pressure against a team rated #19 in defending the pass. The Packers are a well balanced explosive team on both sides of the ball, and should have their way with the Seahawks here. Seattle is 1-10 ATS the past three seasons on the road coming off a double-digit win.Green Bay only suffered three ATS losses all season - best in the league. Congratulations to Seattle for winning big last weekend. But, they aren't home this week and they aren't facing Todd Collins. We like them the Packers in a blowout. We also like the UNDER as we expect Seattle's offense to struggle severely, with punter Ryan Plackemeier seeing a lot of action. Green Bay isn't necessarily though of as one of the NFL's stingiest teams but of all the remaining teams, they have a lower points per yard allowed than all but one team. Take Green Bay ATS and the UNDER.
Game: Seattle at Green Bay (Saturday 1/12 4:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Green Bay -400 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1)
This is an excellent opportunity, and presents one of the best values on the board this weekend. Since the current NFL playoff format went into effect in 1994, any visiting team in this round that has 10 or less regular season wins is just 2-30 against the moneyline! That is 15 to 1 odds and equates to a moneyline of -2400. The actual moneyline for this game (-400) equates to an expected win rate of 79%. So, we have a 96% expected payoff for the "cost" of an 79% winner. Another way to look at this is to say that we are laying -400 on something that has a fair price of -2400.
Game: Jacksonville at New England (Saturday 1/12 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New England -13 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It's funny how public perception changes. Six weeks ago, the public would have given any amount of points to any team, and backed New England against that line. No line was too large. Now we have one of the shortest spreads for the Pats in a while, in their most important game year-to-date, and the public squares are lining up on Jacksonville. It's not too hard to figure out why and it has to do with short memories. New England has (relatively) struggled of late. They started off 8-0 ATS but they lost six of their last eight games against the number. Guess who took it in the shorts on those games? That's right - the public squares. Meanwhile, Jacksonville covered the spread in seven of their final eight regular season games. The only ATS loss was in the meaningless season finale. The talking heads on TV say that Jacksonville has the best shot at knocking off the Pats. How can you not take this hot team getting nearly two TDs? That's the thinking at least. But, we haven't sold out on the Pats. It's rare to find value on a -13 favorite but we have it here! One thing we have to remember is that when a team literally clinches their division halfway through the season, there just simply isn't anything to get excited for until week 19, which is now! The process in-between involves taking everyone's best shot, while you have a difficult time giving yours. But New England is so good that they didn't fall victim to what so many other teams have. They perservered to pull off the unbelievable 16-0 season. New England found themselves in three games (Baltimore, Philadelphia and the Giants) which all could have gone bad, and into the loss column. But when they needed to score, each and every time, they did! If you think something has changed with this offense, your going to be on the wrong side of this game. Jacksonville has played much better in the second half of the season, no doubt. They are a very good team playing good football. The problem we have is they were up by 18 against a Pittsburgh team devastaed with injuries, and allowed them to not only make it back in the game, they gave up the lead! New England is going to pile up points on this team the way you saw earlier in the season. Just wait and see. What we also saw was David Garrard, flawless during the regular season, play very nervous in this playoff game. He was 9-21 with two INT's after throwing three picks all season. You know New England and the coaching staff took notice, and he will see some schemes he has never seen before. If Belichick can scheme to shut down Peyton Manning, with two weeks to prepare, and on a mission, you can bet they can scheme to handle David Garrard. The Jags will not get the mistakes from this New England team that they needed to beat Pittsburgh. Statsitically speaking, the wrong team won last week's game. We would not be surprised if this one is not put out of reach by halftime, and New England, finally playing a meaningful game, will answer big. Jacksonville is not a team built to come back from a deficit. The craziest thing about this weekend, bar none, is that we are getting a 16-0 team, arguably the best team EVER, with arguably the best QB ever and arguably the best coach ever, at a bargain! Take this bargain and run with it.
Game: New York Giants at Dallas (Sunday 1/13 4:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Dallas -330 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.2)
This is an excellent opportunity, and presents one of the best values on the board this weekend. Since the current NFL playoff format went into effect in 1994, any visiting team in this round that has 10 or less regular season wins is just 2-30 against the moneyline! That is 15 to 1 odds and equates to a moneyline of -2400. The actual moneyline for this game (-330) equates to an expected win rate of 77%. So, we have a 96% expected payoff for the "cost" of an 77% winner. Another way to look at this is to say that we are laying -330 on something that has a fair price of -2400.
Game: New York Giants at Dallas (Sunday 1/13 4:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Dallas -7.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Giants have played well the last two weeks in a close loss (but moral victory) to New England and a nice playoff opener on the road in Tampa. The defense has played well on the season as they rank #8 overall. This is where statistics do not tell the whole story! The Giants have lived playing mediocre offenses, but have also had to face some of the top offenses, and they have failed miserably. The Giants allowed 45 points to this very third ranked Dallas offense, giving up four TD passes. They allowed 31 in a rematch and four more TD passes. They allowed 38 points to #1 New England and 35 to #2 Green Bay. In those four games, they gave up 13 TD passes and 149 points, or 37.3 ppg. That ranks dead last in the NFC, and the yards allowed in these four games would rank 31st! So instead of a solid #8 defense, we see a bad defense vs. great offenses. What makes matters worse is three of these games were played at home. Dallas has not played well after beating Green Bay, and going to 11-1 on the season, nor have they had to look good because that game pretty much put them in this #1 seed position for this game. The Giants led the league with 52 sacks on the season, and it is the reason they were able to cripple the mediocre offenses. It is also the reason they can't stop the superb offenses. They recorded just five sacks in the four games mentioned above, or about 1 per game. That means in the other 12 games, they averaged four per game! The Giants secondary is their weakness, and it is why they can't stop the top offenses. If they can't get pressure, they get exposed. Tony Romo has a bitter memory of botching a hold on an X-tra point last year and he has been waiting for this opportunity since then. He already has eight TD passes against the Giants, and he will shred that secondary again. NFC #1 seeds are 15-4 ATS the last 19 years, and while the public has bought into the Giants in a big way, we are not fooled. They can beat the Tampa Bay's of the league but against the league elite, they fold.
Results: 2-4
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-January-04-2008
There is a lot of buzz surrounding the hot Redskins right now as they closed the season with four straight wins to earn the final Wildcard slot. The public has certainly bought into this team, bu...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-28-2007
Why in the world would Cincinnati even show up for this game? They played their Superbowl last week. We were on the Bengals in part because they have a heated rivalry with Cleveland, and anything they...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-24-2007
This is virtually a meaningless game for both teams. Denver, at 6-8, has been eliminated from the playoffs. San Diego has clinched the West. So we turn to motivation and goals. Who has a motivati...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-22-2007
The Giants started the season 0-2 but then reeled off six straight wins. Again, they looked like they were headed for the playoffs. Then, as has been their history under Tom Coughlin, they seemed to q...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-17-2007
The Vikings have suddenly become a feared team. Adrien Peterson is running over everyone, Tarvaris Jackson on the improve, they own the top unit against the run, and have rattled off f...
