A recap of the 2006 NFL Regular Season:

On the season wins over/under picks, we ended up 9-4 (69%) and 12-5 on a unit basis (71%) for +$650 in profit for $100 players.

On the weekly picks, we went 55-42 (57%) and 174-130 (57%) on a unit-basis. We had 11 winning weeks and 6 losing weeks (65% winning). $100 per unit players made $3,100 on the picks.

Overall $100 per unit players made $3750 over the past 17 weeks.

For the Wildcard weekend, we have three strong picks. Good luck to you!

RESULTS: Last 5 Years NFL Full-Season Profit $100 per unit players have made $7,881 $500 per unit players have made $39,405 $1000 per unit players have made $78,810 View more results: last 12 months & detailed by season

NFL Straight-Up Picks - Office Pool Picks & Computer Predictions
Looking for straight-up (not against the spread) picks for use in your office pool? Check out our NFL football office pool picks. Each game is picked with an assigned value. We also have NFL computer predictions for every game on the board. A NOTE FOR POINTSPREAD PLAYERS: these are NOT my official picks - they do not take into account anything other than raw stats (emotions, situations, etc). They are useful for office pools and as one input to handicapping but should not be played blindly.

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Good luck to you...

Wunderdog's Approach to the NFL Playoffs

I just love the NFL postseason. Although there is obviously an opportunity to do well during the regular season, the NFL playoffs provide a much more consistent and predictable set of circumstances. As opposed to going primarily with underdogs as I do during the regular season, I spread it around in the post-season. In fact, I actually lean towards the favorites in my postseason. Why is that you ask? Here are some of the reasons:
 
1. THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP IN THE NFL PLAYOFFS

In the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win, and cover the spread. Identifying the best team is not always easy, but if you can, you can consistently win in the postseason. There are a myriad of stats to look at including straight-up record, core statistics (points, rushing, passing, etc) and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage, etc). Look at yards per play and yards per point. I utilize a system that weights statistics based on their historical predictive properties.

2. THERE IS NO “NEXT WEEK” FOR LOSERS… AKA THE “RUN UP THE SCORE” SYNDROME

In the regular season we can spot situations where a favorite is poised to be upset by a supposedly lowly underdog. In the regular season, even very strong teams sometimes let down their guard. In the playoffs, letdowns rarely happen. This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that if they lose this game, they go home. So, the stronger teams play up to their true ability. The favorites in the NFL don’t often let up at the end of a game to allow a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs teams run up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns, the winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will take the opportunity to score another two if they can. The unwritten rule in the NFL (don’t run up the score) goes out the window in January as opposing coaches and players don’t frown on having another team pile on. They would do it if the roles were reversed!

3. HOME SWEET HOME!

It is widely recognized that home field advantage in the NFL is important. Regular season spreads are routinely adjusted by about 2.5 to 3.5 points in favor of the home team. But in the playoffs, home field advantage cannot be overstated. Home squads don’t have to travel after a long brutal season. The home field energy from the crowd is especially intense in January. Weather plays a big role (just ask a warm weather team like Tampa Bay having to travel to Green Bay or Buffalo in January). And, the better team usually “earned” home field advantage by playing awesome football for 16 weeks. The lines-makers typically cannot adjust the spread enough to account for these factors. Over the past eight seasons, home teams have covered the spread nearly 64% of the time! Home underdogs do even better. Home dogs are very rare (we have seen only 13 of them since 1982) but if you find one – jump on it as they are 11-1-1 against the spread in those games.

4. STATISTICAL HANDICAPPING INCREASES IN IMPORTANCE

In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the advantage in key statistical areas usually win and cover. Knowing which stats to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.

Keep these items in mind when handicapping the NFL playoffs. My postseason picks utilize systems built around these variables.

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Kansas City at Indianapolis (Saturday 1/06 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Indianapolis -7

We feel there is tremendous line value in this game. All you hear about is how the Colts, 3-4 in their last seven games, can't stop the run. It is true... They can't! Their run defense is among the top 10 worst rushing defenses in the history of the NFL. So what did that do for the opponents that knew all they have to do is run the ball against the Colts? They must have had a lot of success, right? Well, not quite. We must not forget that they had a 12-4 season. Every opponent they faced this year ran for over 100 yards against the Colts. That included these figures at home: 108, 191, 214, 114, 111, 149, 133 and 150. Giving up that kind of yardage on the ground, the Colts must have struggled, right? No. Every one of those opponents left Indianapolis with a loss. There is a reason and his name is Peyton Manning. Manning is one of the best QB's of this era (ever, really), with some of the best receivers to which to throw. Kansas City is within 20 yards per game of being at the bottom of all NFL teams in terms of pass defense! Will they stop the Colts offense on the road? Let's look deeper at the Colts season at home. They gave up an average of 18.5 points per game. Not bad at all. But it gets better once we take out meaningless late "charity" touchdowns that were the result of Indy blowing out their opponents. The Colts led Houston 30-3 going into the 4th quarter. The final score was 43-24. They led Jacksonville 21-7 with 3 minutes left - final score 21-14. They led Washington 36-14 with :18 seconds left - final score 36-22. They led Philly 31-7 going into the 4th quarter - final score 45-21. They led Cinncinnati 31-13 going into the 4th quarter - final score 34-16. In the two close games they had they gave up just 16 and 13 points. The bottom-line is the Colts home defense gave up 11 meaningful points per game. After they had such big leads, they gave up 60 points to six teams, and four of those still ended up double digit blowouts! How many teams in the playoffs this year beat three playoff bound teams on the road? The only one to do it is the Colts. Who is the only NFL playoff team to have four wins against playoff bound teams? The Colts! Kansas City backed into the playoffs and they are one of two teams that has not beaten a playoff team on the road. This line has been held down because ESPN's talking heads focus on the fact that the Colts can't stop the run and that they lost 4 of 7 to end the season. But they have beaten much better teams in this building this year than the Chiefs. This year the Colts faced three teams better than the Chiefs on the road and all three knew the Colts could not stop the run. But Indy beat them all. In the end, this one isn't about Indy stopping LJ and the Chiefs. It's about the Chiefs stopping Manning and the Colts. KC won't be able to do it. When they needed a big home win against a very good team three weeks ago, they pounded Cincinnati. Here, a motivated Peyton Manning and the Colts will do the same to an overmatched Kansas City.

There are a couple of reasons why you see Dallas as an underdog in this game. First, it is a road game for them. Second, they looked downright horrible in three of the last four weeks getting beaten in those games by a combined score of 55-104. The last loss was considered unforgivable by bettors, a 31-39 defeat at the hands of the lowly Detroit Lions. They have punished Dallas here, making them a field goal dog. But folks let's not lose sight of a very important fact here. Dallas is the best team on this field today. Dallas will come into this game with the #5 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense. Seattle has had such a weak schedule that they have only seen two teams the entire season that rank in the top half of the league in both offense and defense! They have beaten teams with a combined record of 55-89. They posted just one win vs. a team with a winning record! They have beaten just one playoff team and that's a team that would not be in the playoffs in most years - the 8-8 New York Giants. Dallas finished the season by dropping their last two straight games which, as odd as it may sound, has been a positive signal as we enter the playoffs as these types of teams have covered 74% of their playoff games since 1985. If you review the Dallas season one thing is quite obvious. They have struggled against teams with a good offense. Of their seven losses, six came at the hands of teams with an offense ranked in the top 43% of the league (14 or higher). They gave up 26.7 ppg to those teams. Seattle will bring in the #19 ranked offense which is good news for Dallas. Teams that rank below the top 14 have managed just 15.5 ppg vs. Dallas. If you take out the last game vs. Detroit when Dallas just didn't show up, it is only 10.8 ppg. And that covers five games with no team getting more than 14. Dallas should certainly not let down here like they did vs. the Lions. Seattle got its wins against teams that ranked, on average, 19.3 defensively in league average (below the middle). The Seattle defense, even though it played a weak schedule, ranked just #19. So weak schedule and all, they are below the league average on both sides of the ball while Dallas is above the league average on both sides of the ball including the 4th ranked scoring offense! Seattle this year lost to Arizona and San Francisco twice. Very good football teams, ones favored in the playoffs, should not have that on their resume. The cream more often than not rises to the top in the NFL playoffs with the better team prevailing. It is very rare to get points with the better team but here we do. Grab those points and consider a moneyline play as we like Dallas to advance to the next round.

The Jets have had one of those overachieving seasons. While we predicted in August that they would eclipse the 6-win mark, we didn't think they'd win 10 games and make it to the playoffs in the tough AFC. They got here through great coaching and better-than-expected QB play. They also benefited from a very soft schedule. New England is like ole-man river - they just keep rolling along. A team that was inundated with injuries yet again found a way to finish 12-4. Most people, if asked, wouldn't consider this one of Belichick's best teams. But 12-4 is hard to sniff at. Also, if we asked you where this team ranked in terms of points allowed under "the hooded sweatshirt," where would you rank it? Top 10? Top 5? Top 3? How about #1? Yes- it's his best defense ever, allowing just 14.8 ppg. That's better than every other team this year except Baltimore (yes, better than Chicago). They say defense wins championships, right? Consider that the last time the Patriots had this type of defense (allowed 14.8 also in 2003), they won the Super Bowl. These two teams split their games this year, but statistically New England dominated both. The 17-14 loss to the Jets saw New England out-gain the Jets by 100 yds, pile up more first downs, and garner a punting distance advantage. But they lost the all important turnover battle 3-1, which led to the Jets victory. The Pats beat the Jets in New York, in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score. New England led 24-0 midway through the 3rd quarter and the Jets could do nothing until the Pats laid down. They dominated again in this one, getting more first downs, more yards, better punting yards. They even survived a -1 turnover margin. The New York win vs. New England (in which they were dominated statistically) was the only playoff team the Jets beat all season. They are going to find out here that playing in New England in January is a completely different story. The Pats are 8-0 here since 1985, and have given up a total of 59 points in those 8 games (7.4 ppg). They have beaten teams by an average of 14 ppg and won 6 of 8 by double digits and 5 of 8 by 14 or more. We saw a good solid Jacksonville team stall this Jets offense completely and we saw a Bears defense shut this team out as well. When is the last time you saw a playoff team that was shutout twice during the season? New England held the Jets to absolutely nothing for about 37 minutes in New York, and that is the defense they will see in this playoff game. The last 8 playoff games played in New England have seen 5 visitors leave without getting into the end zone, and the Jets may face the same problem. Belichick, Brady and New England in a rout.

We are passing on this game. Again - no official pick on this game. That being said, if we had to go one way or the other, we'd lean towards Philly. Here's why. The Giants don't belong here. Statistically they are the weakest team in the playoffs. They are 8-8 and come stumbling in having won just two of their final eight games. Their emotional state is messy as the coach and players are at odds and griping. They are injury-riddled with their best defensive player (Strahan) is still out and one of their best offensive players (Shockey) is hobbled with a severe ankle injury. The Eagles are just the opposite - they are red hot since Jeff Garcia took over for Donovan McNabb. He lost his first start but then rattled off five straight wins and secured the NFC East title in the process. Philadelphia is better on both sides of the ball. They score more and allow less. The only area of the game in which New York holds an advantage is rushing - with Tiki Barber. NFL playoff teams that statistically dominate their opponents on both offense and defense are historically very good bets. Eli Manning may someday be great. But right now he's not even good. He has shown that as the season progresses, he worsens. Even in their last game that they won to make the playoffs, Mannign was 12-26 for 101 yards. He didn't complete a pass over 14 yards. Last year in their playoff game vs. Carolina they got hammered 30-0. In the end we have a struggling one-dimensional team has to travel in January to play a very hot team that won their division. So, we give the edge to the Eagles. Not enough of an edge in the end to make a pick though so we'll pass here.