Nfl Weekly Picks - January 06, 2008
We are off another winning season going into the playoffs and finished very strong, hitting 58% the last three weeks for +19.4 units. Our NFL season win totals predictions also won for the third straight year, further boosting the bankroll. Below we have some thoughts on the 2007 Players of the Year as well as our five Wildcard picks.
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| WUNDERDOG 2008 RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| NFL |
15-11 last 26 picks |
58% | +$1940 |
| CBB |
26-13 last 39 picks |
67% | +$2370 |
| NBA |
8-2 last 10 picks |
80% | +$1480 |
| NHL |
13-6 last 19 picks |
68% | +$2330 |
| TOTAL | | | +$8120 |
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: Washington at Seattle (Saturday 1/05 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Seattle -3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 40.5 -110
There is a lot of buzz surrounding the hot Redskins right now as they closed the season with four straight wins to earn the final Wildcard slot. The public has certainly bought into this team, but we have not. We don't have much faith when it comes playoff time in backing a QB that has seen little action in 13 years. Todd Collins didn't start for 10 years for a reason. He's done very well of late but he is no savoir - not when playing the league's elite teams. He has a propensity to fumble (17 times in 44 games) and throw as many INTs as TDs (22 TDs, 19 INTs). The Seattle defensive line is about as good as it gets. Pat Kerney and Julian Peterson are going to be in Collins grill all game. Marcus Trufant is an excellent corner, and he should have no problem containing Santana Moss. The Skins running game is mostly Clinton Portis and he's solid. But his numbers have been going backward now for the last three years and this year, at 3.9 ypc, he is not even at the league average. The Seahawks are 4th in the league in sacks, so if Washington can't run the ball effectively, they are putting an inexperienced QB in serious trouble. Seattle has thrived on turning the opponent over as they are +10 and have 20 INTs on the season. The Seahawks allow just 18.2 ppg, which is less than 2 points per game away from the NFL leading Colts. The Seahawks are a "home" team and have held half their home opponents to 6 points or less! Matt Hasselback is a playoff tested very good QB. This season he threw 28 TD passes to just 12 INTs. Then there is the issue of homefield advantage where the Seahawks have been dominant winning 23 of their last 27 at home, including three straight playoff games. They are better at taking care of the ball than Washington (Seattle +9 on turnovers while Washington is -5). Don't be fooled by the recent Washington run - Seattle is the better team across the board. These teams don't dominate with their offenses, but Seattle has the more experienced and better QB which is huge in January. The weather will be a factor for this one, as the forecast calls for rainy and windy conditions. That will hold the score down. Seattle has played three of their last four home playoff games UNDER. On the season, Washington is 5-3 UNDER on the road while Seattle is 5-3 UNDER at home. Under Joe Gibbs, the Redskins are 40-22 UNDER vs. conference opponents, 19-9 UNDER as a road underdog and 9-1 UNDER on the road to a total in the 38.5 to 42 range. We like Seattle in a game that should not get out of the 30s.
Game: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (Saturday 1/05 8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 40 -110
Since this NFL playoff format began in 1994, it is rare to see a home divisional winner squaring off with a visting Wildcard team with a better record. The last time it occured was a game involving this same Jacksonville squad in 2005 going to New England with a 12-4 record, and getting trounced 28-3. That was a team that won their last three games to finish 8-1. Tennessee brought a good 12-4 team to Baltimore in 2003 that won their last three games, finished 9-2, and won 20-17. The only other time was a 10-6 Indianapolis team losing to the Jets in 2002 by the score of 41-0. We can see this game going either way (might be some value on the Pitt moneyline), but what we do have is perhaps the top two defensive units in the game. With stepped up playoff intensity, we look for a defensive battle in this one. The Steelers have been great defensively, allowing an NFL fewest 266 yards per game and an NFL second best 16.8 ppg. They are ranked 3rd against both the run and the pass. Jacksonville has been equally impressive. If you throw out the 42 points in the season's finale against Houston where everyone sat out, the Jags have allowed 17 points or less in 10 of the 15 other games. Both of these teams allow a QB rating of just 74. What does a 74 mean? To put that in perspective, that means the defenses have held the offenses to a QB rating equal to Kyle Boller (75.2) or Brian Greise (75.6)! The Steelers won the Superbowl a couple years ago, but have not hosted a playoff game since 2004. They are getting dissed here by the oddsmakers and TV talking heads who all love Jacksonville. Expect the Steelers defense to be fired up with a chip on their shoulder and for the noise level to be energizing to an already great defense. The Jags have never been good as a road favorite (6-13 ATS last 19) and the Pittsburgh defense rises to the challenge as a dog, as they have played 8-1 to the UNDER last nine in that role. We look for a defensive dominated game, and an UNDER here.
Game: New York Giants at Tampa Bay (Sunday 1/06 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 39.5 -110
These teams took different approaches to finishing out the regular season. Tampa Bay took the last two weeks off and rested their starters, while the Giants played hard, and were impressive vs the Pats. While we can make valid arguements for each side here, we do have a lot of reasons to like the UNDER. The Giants bring in the 8th ranked defense. But if you look closer, they are certainly significantly better than that. New York played four games against the three top-rated offenses in the NFL (New England, Green Bay and Dallas twice). They were torched for 149 points in those four games. The other 12 games on their schedule were played against an offensive team average of #20 and Tampa Bay is ranked #18. So let's look at those 12 games. The Giants allowed just 272 yards and 14.5 points per game! Those numbers would rank at or near the top of the entire NFL. We don't expect to see Tampa Bay in the end-zone very much here. The Bucs are here primarily because of their defense. It ranks 2nd in the NFL and is #1 vs. the pass. The Giants have a QB in Eli Manning that is very inconsistent and with a pass defense such as Tampa's, the Giants are likely to run the ball a lot, which will eat up minutes. If they decide to test that pass defense, we don't see a bad Giant's passing game withManning having a lot of success. If you throw out game 17 when Tampa rested the starters vs Carolina, they allowed a grand total of 77 points in seven home games (just 11 ppg). They gave up just seven TDs all season and three of those were in the later stages of the 4th quarter with the game decided. Under Jon Gruden, the Bucs are 23-13 UNDER in close games (those with a line of -3 to +3) and 25-13 UNDER as a home favorite. The last five years NFC Wildcard games have gone UNDER in 9 of 10 games played and we see this one not bucking that trend.
Game: Tennessee at San Diego (Sunday 1/06 4:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 39.5 -110
These teams met in Tennessee a few weeks back and the game was described by both players and coaches alike as the most physical game of the year. We certainly don't expect anything less here. The Titans have been superb defensively, but certainly have not been "playoff caliber" on offense. With the starting QB up in the air, it adds more risk on that side of the ball for the Titans. This team has struggled to put points on the board, and has scored 20 or less in 12 of 16 games including 8 of their last 10. Be it Collins or Young who gets the start, the offense just doesn't sustain drives. They managed just 240 yards against the Chargers in their OT loss. San Diego has not been the same offense this season. Phillip Rivers has been personally responsible for 21 turnovers so it's hard to trust San Diego ATS here, especially given the expected weather. San Diego ran Tomlinson all game against the Titans and he got most of his yards late. We expect them to pound it again, trying to wear down the Titan defense, which seemed to work in their earlier match-up. The Titans did the same running LenDale White 30 times at the Charger defense. That first game featured 67 total running attempts, and this game will likely equal or surpass that number as the teams try to keep their vulnerable QB's from making a game changing mistake. This game has a grind it out, clock burning signature to it, and with playoff intensity, we expect this one to fall short of the total.
Results: 3-2
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-December-28-2007
Why in the world would Cincinnati even show up for this game? They played their Superbowl last week. We were on the Bengals in part because they have a heated rivalry with Cleveland, and anything they...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-24-2007
This is virtually a meaningless game for both teams. Denver, at 6-8, has been eliminated from the playoffs. San Diego has clinched the West. So we turn to motivation and goals. Who has a motivati...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-22-2007
The Giants started the season 0-2 but then reeled off six straight wins. Again, they looked like they were headed for the playoffs. Then, as has been their history under Tom Coughlin, they seemed to q...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-17-2007
The Vikings have suddenly become a feared team. Adrien Peterson is running over everyone, Tarvaris Jackson on the improve, they own the top unit against the run, and have rattled off f...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-16-2007
This is a late addition UNDER play based on weather - fits our 70% system.
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