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Nfl Free Picks - January 04, 2009We concluded one of our best NFL regular seasons ever last week. We won 12 of the last 14 weeks going 67-42 (61%) over that span with $100 players netting $6,820. While we lost with the week 17 picks, our season win totals bets concluded helping balance things out some. Our Season Win Totals picks finished 8-5 (63%)! We enter the playoffs with two Wildcard picks and feature a Dog Pound article (below) on how to bet the NFL Postseason...  Today's NFL Football Picks: The Dolphins used the Wildcat offense to get to the playoffs. Starting with their game against New England, this offense caught many off guard and it led to more wins than expected this season. But, that integral part of their offense had no success against this Baltimore team when they met in Miami in week seven. The Wildcat offense became a Mildcat offense as the Ravens held the Dolphins to just five yards out of that formation. Consequently the Dolphins scored just 13 points, their lowest offensive output at home all season. Miami couldn't beat the Ravens with long plays, as Chad Pennington’s weak arm produced a 28 yard gain as their longest play. And, the Ravens run-stop unit suffocated the tandem running attack of Brown and Williams as they gained just 43 yards on 17 carries. The Ravens have never been known to be an offensive team, but that has changed considerably this year as they have put up 24.1 ppg (No. 11 in the league). Joe Flacco has certainly been the difference as he has thrown just three INTs since week 10, and that includes games against defensive minded Dallas, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Willis McGhee rushed for over 100 yards in Miami and the Dolphins No. 17 ranked rushing defense should afford him similar numbers in this one. The Ravens offensive coordinator is Cam Cameron who was with the Dolphins in 2007, and it gives the Ravens an advantage here as it did in week seven, as he knows the Dolphins’ personnel and tendencies inside out. The Dolphins certainly have not shown much of a home-field advantage as they are just 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 at home. The Dolphins are a great story this year, but Cinderella's about to face midnight. I like the Ravens to duplicate their week seven performance and win this one by a TD+. Game: Philadelphia at Minnesota (Sunday 1/04 4:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 2 units on Philadelphia -3 (-115) (risk 2 to win 1.7) The Eagles needed a miracle going into the final week to make it here. They had to beat the Cowboys and hope for a couple other things to happen. Well, they all did and here they are. But is this an undeserving team that snuck in? No! This is a team that deserves to be here - a team that is finally playing up to their potential and peaking at the right time. When healthy, the Eagles are quite simply one of the best teams in the NFL. Just look at who they beat this season. They beat Dallas, the Gants, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Arizona. They had 11 games on the schedule against teams that were .500 or better. The matchup is favorable here, because the Eagles interest is not by land, it is by air. The Vikings have stopped the run all season, but can't stop an air attack. The Eagles let it fly over 600 times this season, to just 426 running plays. Donovan McNabb, after a poor middle of the season and wake-up-call benching, has now gone the last five weeks throwing for nine TDs and just one INT and one fumble. The Vikings secondary is pedestrian at best, and McNabb will have the deep ball available with DeSean Jackson, and the short ball with a healthy Westbrook. This is a Vikings team led by a QB that has no playoff experience, and a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in four years. They have limited personnel with playoff experience and are hosting a game thanks to a very weak schedule. The Eagles players and coaches, in contrast, have lots of playoff experience. You can be sure that the Eagles array of blitz packages will be utilized in full force for this one. The Eagles have been a great road team with McNabb as he is 32-20 ATS in 52 road starts. Adrian Peterson has been playing with an ankle injury, and says he is feeling good, but this will be the toughest run defense the Vikings have seen all season as the Eagles rank fourth against the run. The last seven weeks this Eagles defense has not allowed a running back to go for more than 88 yards. That's against the likes of Brandon Jacobs and Clinton Portis who combined to average just 61 yards. The average yards rushing gained by Philly's opponents’ featured back the last seven weeks is 50! The Vikings have their hands full on both sides of the ball, and the better team with the better QB and more experience gets the call here. NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters: NFL-Football-Picks-December-26-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-22-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-19-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-19-2008 NFL-Football-Picks-December-18-2008 |
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