Free Football Predictions - January 03, 2010
We went 6-2 last week and now stand at 37-17 (69%) for +52.4 units over the past six weeks. The great NFL run in December was part of an overall awesome month as we went 221-145 (60%) for +201 units across all sports in the month. That's over $20,000 gain for $100 players. We enter the final week of the NFL regular season with eight picks.
| WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| NFL |
45-29 last 74 picks |
61% | +$3880 |
| CFB |
25-10 last 35 picks |
71% | +$6040 |
| MLB |
265-219 last 484 picks |
55% | +$8370 |
| CBB |
123-103 last 226 picks |
54% | +$4430 |
| NHL |
239-158 last 397 picks |
60% | +$17600 |
| WNBA |
121-90 last 211 picks |
57% | +$5490 |
| TOTAL | | | +$45810 |
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: New York Giants at Minnesota (Sunday 1/03 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Vikings offense has been tailing off of late anyway and with the onset of week 17, it may not be a full game for the starters. This team was averaging 31 points per game through 12 weeks, scoring below 27 just once. In the last four weeks, they have dipped to 21 per game, scoring 17 or fewer twice. The Giants defense has taken a lot of punches this season, but they have a history of responding after allowing 30+ in their prior game. The last 16 times they have allowed 30+, they have gone12-3-1 UNDER in their next game including 4-1 this year! Under Tom Coughlin, the G-Ment are 10-2 UNDER on the road in a game with a total between 45 and 49 points and 12-3 UNDER off a double-digit home loss. Overall the Giants are 13-3 UNDER on the road in their last 16 when the total is posted above 45 points. The Vikings struggling offense and solid defense has resulted in six of their last seven failing to reach the total. They have to avoid the loss here, or they could lose their first-round bye in the playoffs. I like this one to go UNDER the total.
Game: Pittsburgh at Miami (Sunday 1/03 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Miami +3.5 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The ride is essentially over for both of these teams, but they cling to the long shot which will keep some interest here. The Steelers have fallen dramatically since claiming the Super Bowl a year ago. The reality is that they are lucky to be 8-7 here as they have dodged two big bullets the last couple of weeks in games they should have lost.While most people still think of Pittsburgh as a superb team with some bad breaks, they really are not a good team right now. They easily could be 6-9 entering this one. They have just two wins on the road all season and one of those was a win (no cover) at Detroit. They have also lost to Cleveland, Chicago and Kansas City on the road, so they can easily be had here by a team that is much better than the aforementioned ones. In fact, looking at their record to teams with a losing record this season, it stands at 0-6 ATS. How overrated are the Steelers? They are 3-10 ATS this season as a favorite. They are also just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 as a road favorite of 3 or fewer points. The Dolphins seem to play poorly when expected to win, but rise up as a dog as they have claimed their last six in the role of a pup. Miami is the better team, getting points at home.
Game: Indianapolis at Buffalo (Sunday 1/03 1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Indianapolis +9 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Indianapolis Colts upset their fans when they took out Peyton Manning in the third quarter last week, spoiling the opportunity for a perfect season. While you can make a case for it, I think it was tragic. No team has ever gone 19-0 and they were staring at a good chance to do it. They had to play their starters for one more half in a game they were leading. They should have done it. The chance of Manning getting injured to a point he couldn't play in the playoffs was probably slightly higher than the chance he'd get in a car accident on the way home. Dumb move. But, move on. I'm well aware of the Colts’ history after clinching and resting players, which is part of a longtime organizational policy. The Colts had dropped 11 straight games ATS in weeks 16 and 17, but recently have been 3-2 ATS. And, I think this team is pissed about last week, and there will be some subconcious pressure for them to perform here. The oddsmakers are aware of the fact that the Colts are often no-shows and have not only adjusted the line, but over adjusted the line. The Bills lost their QB and backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will be playing injured. We will likely see Brian Brohm here as well, but neither is going to be effective. This is a bad Bills team that has scored more than 17 points just two times in the last 13 weeks. Regardless who plays or doesn't play for the Colts, it will be a monumental chore to cover an inflated spread here. The Bills simply shouldn't be favored by this amount vs. any team, nevermind the Colts (even with backups).
Game: New England at Houston (Sunday 1/03 1:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on New England +9 (-130) (risk 4 to win 3.1)
I’m kind of surprised to see this line as the oddsmakers are speculating that the Patriots, like the Colts, will lie down here. What they are missing is that it simply isn't coach Belichick's style. He has already said his starters will be on the field for this one. The Pats have been in this spot before. Going back to the 2005 finale vs. a Miami team that had won six straight games and fighting for a playoff spot, the Pats lost by just 2 points. The next year New England played Tennessee in a game that the Titans needed to secure a playoff spot, and the Pats starters played three quarters in a 17-point Patriots win. The Pats, over the last 18 years, are the NFL's second best team in scoring margin at +5.3 points per game. That has made them the No. 1 team in the NFL ATS with a 12-5-1 mark in the season finale, including 8-2 straight up in the last decade. Six of those games show margins of victory by 13 points or more, and the two losses are by a combined 5 points! This isn't a no-show team under Belichick, and this is a no-show expected line which is chock full of value! The Patriots are 22-5 ATS in their ast 27 games vs. teams at .510 to .600 and 24-10 ATS in their last 34 vs. teamst hat pass for 260+ yards per game. New England gets the call here.
Game: Kansas City at Denver (Sunday 1/03 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +12.5 (-105) (risk 3 to win 2.9)
The Broncos will take the field here with their playoff fate in their own hands. And they'll have to do it without their best offensive threat, Brandon Marshall, who was once again benched for insubordination. Last year the Broncos were 8-5 in the same situation with their playoff fate hinging on a single win to close out a playoff spot, and they lost all three games by a total of 58 points. I’m not sure if you can trust this team in a crucial spot. Here they were this year at 8-4 and needing just one win in the last four to seal the deal, and they have dropped three straight to find themselves in this spot. Denver is down to their last chance as the noose tightens once again. The Chiefs season is over and would like nothing more than to beat a heated division rival and knock them out of the playoffs. Kansas City has been competitive losers as they have lost their last three, but none by more than 7 points. They have also come up huge on the road as a big dog. They are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a double-digit road dog. The choking Broncos are just 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 as home chalk and in crucial spots in the last two years have now proceeded to go 0-6! The Broncose have gone 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. teams at .250 or worse. I expect KC to be loose here and Denver relatively tight. This is too many points and this dog has bite.
Game: Tennessee at Seattle (Sunday 1/03 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Seattle +4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Tennessee Titans were a miserable football team through the first six weeks of the season, starting 0-6. They left themselves with no margin for error. To their credit, they didn't cash in their chips, but ran off five straight wins and seven of eight. They nonetheless paid the price for the horrible start. So what is left for this team? They have had to bring it every single week for nine straight weeks, and the playoff dream came to a screeching halt in a 42-17 debacle against San Diego. That game exposed the truth about the Titans - they really are a sub. 500 team. They are just 2-5 on the road this season, scoring 16 points per game and losing by 5 points on average! Meanwhile, Seattle is a winning team at home, allowing just 16.1 points per game. Which team should really be favored? You could sense the quit in this Titans team as San Diego pulled away last week, and I would expect this team will have absolutely nothing left here. The Seahawks have been murdered the last three weeks, dropping three straight to a combined score of 126-24, so how can they win here? I think there is enough pride to give it all they have in the home finale to build on a good feeling for next year. Under Jeff Fisher, Tennesse is 25-37 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 4-12 ATS on the road after back-to-back ATS losses. I think this one is more about the Titans losing their edge that they had to maintain for nine straight games. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team completely unfocused here. I like the Seahawks at home with the points.
Game: Washington at San Diego (Sunday 1/03 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on San Diego -3.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The December version of the Chargers is akin to Reggie Jackson in baseball. Jackson was Mr. October and the Chargers own the month of December. The Redskins dropped their last two in big division rival games by a combined deficit of 62-12. If they were a no show in two big games vs. hated division rivals at home, what do they have to bring to the table for a week 17 road contest vs. an AFC team? My projection is nothing! The Chargers have too much mojo working now in a 10-game winning streak to fall and close on a negative here. They want to keep their momemtum and Norv Turner said this week his team is preparing like any other game and that his starters will play. While there are no question marks on this team mentally or physically, they don't need to create any here, so I expect them to take care of business. The Chargers have carved up poor pass defenses (those allowing over 60% completions). They are 17-7 ATS the last three seasons vs. such teams including 14-1 ATS in late-season play! The Skins 3-10-2 ATS mark after falling at home by 10+ sets the stage, and the Bolts’ 21-7 ATS mark as a favorite of 3.5-10 at home brings the curtain down! I'm on the Chargers here.
Game: Philadelphia at Dallas (Sunday 1/03 4:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
In what is the biggest game of the weekend, the winner gets the NFC East Championship. For the Eagles, they move into the playoffs regardless of the outcome while Dallas needs a win here. The Eagles have sent a message over the last decade or so that when they play Dallas in the second meeting, they are able us an understanding gained from the first game in regards to how to stop the Cowboys’ attack. The last nine times these teams have squared off in their second meeting Dallas has been held to 7 points or less in six of them! That is regardless of where the game is, or who won the first one. The fact is that Dallas scores 8.4 ppg in the second meeting, while the Eagles score 24.9 ppg. That makes for a grand total of 33.3 ppg scored in the second meeting - a full two TDs beyond the lofty total posted for this one. Sure, Philadelphia's offense can score in bunches. But, the Dallas defense is one of the best in the league in keeping opponents off the scoreboard. Dallas has held teams to 16.7 points per game overall, 15.9 at home, and 12.3 over their last three games. Over the past two seasons, the Eagles are 6-0 UNDER on the road coming off an OVEr, and 9-1 UNDER after a game in which 50+ points were scored. With so much at stake, this should be an intense game and that often spells defense. Given that, and the history in this game, I like this game to go UNDER the total.
Results: 4-4
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-January-22-2010
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NFL-Football-Picks-January-15-2010
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NFL-Football-Picks-January-08-2010
The Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo finally ended the incessant talk of their annual December demise. They won their last three games by a combined score of 65-17. They finished the season with...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-24-2009
Wrong team favored. The Tennessee Titans, after an 0-6 start, have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. But, the San Diego Chargers are playing better than any team in the NFL right now including the C...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-21-2009
Sometimes our human brains can fail us. We fall into the trap of putting a label on a team and then not budging, despite evidence to the contrary. The Redskins are the team no one wants to touch. But ...
