Football And Picks - February 07, 2010
Thanks for being part of another winning NFL season (our seventh out of nine since starting business), thanks to a 45-29 (61%) run to finish out the season (prior to the Super Bowl of course). We look to put a winning cap on the season on Super Bowl Sunday.
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The past two years my Super Bowl picks (game picks and prop bets) have gone 8-2 so on the one hand, I have confidence going into this year's game between New Orleans and Indianapolis. That being said, I will warn you: I don't love this game. The past couple of years I loved the Giants and the Cardinals. I felt there was tremendous value on those teams.
This year, I don't see the same kind of edge. Trust me, I wish I did. I know this is the biggest game of the year and I know people want to win big. But, I'd be doing you a disservice to pretend I loved a game when I don't. My job first and foremost is to be honest with you.
I think there is some value on one side and I share that in my pick on a side below (I don't have a pick or lean on the total). But, personally I may end up playing some props bigger than the side this year.
On a final note, please don't confuse not loving the game with not having analyzed it in depth. I have put a ton of time into analyzing this game from every possible angle and I've shared my thoughts in my pick below. Good luck on Sunday!
Where to bet the big game:
BetUS (get up to 50% deposit bonus through us)
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Bookmaker (get a 40% deposit bonus through us)
Bodog (get a great underdog line with extra half-point on this game)
BetPhoenix (reduced -105 juice)
BetJamaica ($200 free play)
FreeSportsBet.com (bet the Super Bowl for free)
Today's NFL Football Picks:
Game: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (Sunday 2/07 6:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New Orleans +5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
For the first time since the early 90s, we get the top team in the AFC vs. the top team in the NFC in the Super Bowl. There are a lot of reasons to like the Colts here. After watching the Conference Championship games, it's easy to make a case for Indianapolis to win and cover this game. They beat the Jets by 13 points and put up 30 on the best defense in the NFL. The week prior, they won by 17, holding the Ravens to just 3 points. Peyton Manning is simply a machine. The Jets tried to get to him but after a little early success, they simply could not. How will the Saints who own an average defense, stop this guy? The Saints started the season as hot as any team in NFL history, but since the mid-way point, they haven't looked nearly as good as they did. And, they are lucky to be here. Without five Vikings turnovers last game, they would not be here. So, the case for the Colts is pretty easy, and the public is biting with six out of every ten bets coming in on the Colts. Prior to the truth about Dwight Freeney becoming public, 65% of the bets were on the Colts.
The sad fact about this game, from my standpoint, is that this line is probably not very far off from a fair line, making a call on this game more difficult than Super Bowl XLIII or Super Bowl XLII. This is the reason I am not making this a very big-unit pick. But, I do think that the line is juiced a bit on the Colts three reasons. First off, public bets outweigh sharp bets on the Super Bowl. The line reflects Joe Public's view of the game and Joe loves favorites. Second, we have a recency effect in which that same public remembers most what happened most recently (Saints luckily escaped the Vikings and Colts manhandled the Jets). Lastly, the Peyton Manning effect is active. This guy is so good and so popular that people naturally feel good backing him, and scared fading him. Those three things I think have moved this line a couple of points from where it should be. Can the Colts win and cover this? Absolutely. I don't think this is a lock. But, I believe the Saints is the right side. I think if this game was played 10 times, I think the Saints likely cover more than half.
How many points will the Colts score? It would be hard for me to argue that Peyton Manning will be held down here. He just put up 30 points on the NFL's best defense, and he has played at a very high level all season long. On the season, this offense averaged 25.9 points per game. When predicting what the Indy offense will score, we can look at how they have performed vs. defenses similar to what they will face in this game. New Orleans allowed 21.3 per game on the season. When Indy faced defenses similar to that this year, they averaged 27 points per game. Now, what did New Orleans do defensively against teams similar to the Colts? They allowed 27 points per game to offenses that look like the Colts. So, it seems quite reasonable to predict the Colts score around 27 points here. Like I said, I won't try to argue that the Saints can hold down the Colts. Peyton Manning will get his and the Colts will likely score in the high 20s or low 30s.
Keep in mind that if the Colts don't reach 30, that's great news for Saints-backers as over the past 20 years, Super Bowl favorites that scored less than 30 points are just 3-11 ATS. Also keep in mind this: While Peyton Manning is known as a master of in-game adjustments, able to learn and carve up opposing defenses, his history against Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is not so good. In games vs. a Williams-led defense, it has been Williams who has implemented the great adjustments as Manning has averaged 171 first-half yards but just 107 second-half yards in those games.
How many points will the Saints score? This is the much more interesting question for me in this game. If New Orleans can score in the high 20s, then they should cover the spread in this game. If they are held down to the teens or even low 20s, they likely won't cover. So what's going to happen? Let's look at the numbers. New Orleans averaged 32.6 points per game this season (40 per game in games 1-6 and 29 per game after that or 32 ppg if you throw out meaningless weeks 15 and 16). So the 32 number seems like the best gauge of their offense in a vacuum. But what did they do vs. defenses like Indy's? Indy has an above average defense, allowing 18.2 per game. Versus similar defenses, the Saints scored 31.8 per game this season - nearly no drop-off. How did the Indianapolis defense do vs. great offenses like the Saints? There's the rub. We don't really know. The fact is, Indy didn't face any top 5 offenses this year (and New Orleans is a clear #1). The best offense Indy faced was #6 and that team (New England) put up 34 points on the Colts. If we widen the view a bit and look at how Indy did vs. top 10 offenses, they averaged 19.8 per game allowed.
So, how much will New Orleans score here? It's unclear. We are left with a likely range of 19 to 32. The Saints forced five teams this season to give up season-highs in points allowed, and they forced two others to give up their second highest totals of the season. Indy's worst defensive performances this season were 34, 30, 29 and 27 points. Two of those were meaningless games in week 15 and 16 so throw them out. The other two came against Houston and New England - both top 10 offenses. Indianapolis gave up an average of 30.5 points per game to those two teams and the Saints offense averaged 6 points per game more than the Patriots and 8 points per game more than the Texans. Finally, in his career, Drew Brees has been held to under 20 points just 31 times out of 127 games (24%).
All things considered, I believe the Saints have a good shot at getting to 27+ in this game. Do I have irrefutable facts to back that up? Is it a sure thing? No. And that's why I said this is a tougher Super Bowl call than the last couple of years. But, I can certainly build a case for New Orleans scoring 27 or more (they did it 14 times this season after all). And if they do, it's likely they cover and maybe win this game. In fact, Super Bowl underdogs that score 20+ points are 12-3-1 ATS. That includes a 10-1 ATS mark if the team is an underdog of 7 points or less!
So, from a points scored/allowed standpoint, the statistics paint a picture of a very close game with each team scoring in the high 20s. If that's the case, the underdog has the value.
In summary... there are reasons to like the Colts here. They have the better defense, they have played consistently well all season long, they have big-game experience, and they have a guy named Peyton Manning. But, is laying 5 points on the Colts vs. this Saints team the best value? I think not. The Colts undoubtedly own the better defense in this game, but New Orleans has the better offense (ranked #1, better running backs, equal receivers and Brees is not far behind Manning). Sean Payton is a more proven and experienced head coach. Indianapolis has more big-game experience but the Saints have shown this year that they can show up for big games. In what was at the time billed as the game of the year, New Orleans beat the then 5-0 Giants in week six 48-27. The Saints had a huge Monday Night Football game vs. New England in week 12 and won that won 38-17. And, two weeks ago they faced a red-hot Cardinals team in a huge game and won that game 45-14. New Orleans can score with Indy and this will be the best offense the Colts have faced all year, by far. A very good Colts offense will be without the services of a key cog, Dwight Freeney (or at best he will be limited). I think New Orleans plus the points is the right side of this game. Bet this game free at FreeSportsBet.com. Also note that you can get +6 on the Saints at this sportsbook.
NFL Football Picks Resources:
Check out the last five NFL Football Picks Newsletters:
NFL-Football-Picks-January-22-2010
I was on the Jets big-time last week vs. the Chargers, calling for the outright upset win. The Jets pulled it off. I like them again in this game, again given a lot of points and little respect. New Y...
NFL-Football-Picks-January-15-2010
New Orleans was an incredible team early in the season. They started 13-0 and were putting up numbers that rivaled the 2007 New England Patriots. But they simply peaked too soon. This team hung a 40 s...
NFL-Football-Picks-January-08-2010
The Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo finally ended the incessant talk of their annual December demise. They won their last three games by a combined score of 65-17. They finished the season with...
NFL-Football-Picks-January-01-2010
The Indianapolis Colts upset their fans when they took out Peyton Manning in the third quarter last week, spoiling the opportunity for a perfect season. While you can make a case for it, I think it wa...
NFL-Football-Picks-December-24-2009
Wrong team favored. The Tennessee Titans, after an 0-6 start, have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. But, the San Diego Chargers are playing better than any team in the NFL right now including the C...
